RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 still have like 5/6 runs of the EURO to go before we can really feel confident, although at this stage it cant look any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Forget about during a strong nina. The Euro verbatim would be one of the strongest storms probably on record to impact the east coast. The 500 mb charts, and surface looks beyond description. Sub 960s on this run, and basically for the past 4 runs. The GFS and GGEM all show a similar set-up--with an earlier phase, their solutions would resemble the Euro. 00z tonight might begin to show convergence on a Near-Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I've already stated elsewhere that if the EC busts on this, I would lose a great deal of respect for it. Now, even more so... This...although outside of its hiccups on the last storm it wasn't as bad as the GFS was on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So, with this track, the QPF likely should be more? Still, I would like to see the other models follow suit. That started this afternoon. Relax. I find it comical that some people keep saying a compromise between the Euro and GFS is probably the way to go. Well the past 5 runs of the Euro hasn't budged while the GFS is flipping and flopping like a fish out of water. Always go with Mr Consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Is the timeframe on the Euro Sunday-Monday? or later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Ken, I think, I could be wrong, but check out the H500 for December 1915... I think this looks like it. I dont recall that lol-- but ever since the euro started its evolution, it looked to me like a March 1993 kind of deep southerly phase coupled with a December 1992 kind of track and stalling out. Chris, if this verifies, you know what this means..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What's amazing is the 75+ knot easterly jet being forecasted over LI/coastal NJ as the low bombs away. That would almost ensure blizzard conditions at the surface, and a very impressive transport of moisture inland. Also, the lift would be insane and likely ensure local 3-4"/hour thundersnow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Is the timeframe on the Euro Sunday-Monday? or later? The Euro essentially has measureable precip starting around midnight Sunday night/Monday morning and continuing for roughly 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Is the timeframe on the Euro Sunday-Monday? or later? yes...phl is sunday afternoon...nyc evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Does anyone think that the Euro stalling the low east of Delaware and then turning it due east sounds reasonable?I cant rem seeing a storm stall out that south, can you guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Anyone think Thundersnow is possible from this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Would love to be watching the Eagles in a big snow Sunday night! Hope the Euro comes through! Good Lord, that could be a ridiculous game if the EURO verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Thanks for the timeframe guys. A nice Post Christmas storm of an historic magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 i believe the blizzard of feb 1978 did something close to that. Yeah, a storm can stall anywhere-- I remember Dec 1992 stalled just east of the coast of Delaware and slowly moved east. All of our truly great ones have moved out to sea a bit south of us, the continued NE winds with that kind of track ensured prolonged snowfall as well as coastal flooding. This was the case in Feb 83 and Jan 96 also. Typically you want the storm to bend eastward at the latitude of Delaware or southern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah, a storm can stall anywhere-- I remember Dec 1992 stalled just east of the coast of Delaware and slowly moved east. All of our truly great ones have moved out to sea a bit south of us, the continued NE winds with that kind of track ensured prolonged snowfall as well as coastal flooding. This was the case in Feb 83 and Jan 96 also. Typically you want the storm to bend eastward at the latitude of Delaware or southern Jersey. Which is the scenario that usually gives those of us on the island our best/heaviest snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Been KU-flipping this afternoon and can't seem to find an obvious analog at 500mb. Anyone? No obvious analogs. Bears some resemblance to Jan 25 2000. I could imagine how this works out nicely for areas further SW at the expense of those more NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Does anyone think that the Euro stalling the low east of Delaware and then turning it due east sounds reasonable?I cant rem seeing a storm stall out that south, can you guys? The eastward movement is reasonable if the low becomes vertically stacked as shown on the Euro. And the rapid deepening and early capture, stall, and stack of the low is reasonable based on the upper level evolution. So that leaves the question of whether or not the Euro's upper level depiction is reasonable. And that's anyone's guess. Its consistency certainly suggests it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Heres the UKIE map off ewall. Massive low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 According to the 12z Euro, 10m winds are sustained at 50-55kt along the NJ coast and LI. Even 35kt around PHL at hour 114. 10m wind gusts get up to 55-60kt around the PHL area and closer to 70kt along the coast! Extremely impressive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 ill be at that game You cant go you have to tell us about the New Years storm LOL Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Heres the UKIE map off ewall. Massive low. Looks too far east, most likely phased too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 According to the 12z Euro, 10m winds are sustained at 50-55kt along the NJ coast and LI. Even 35kt around PHL at hour 114. 10m wind gusts get up to 55-60kt around the PHL area and closer to 70kt along the coast! Extremely impressive storm. that would be extremely destructive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Really just remarkable stuff we're seeing on proggs today. True testament to what a pattern w/ a -5 AO, west based NAO block and massive PNA ridge can do for you. I can't get over the fact that this is our 5th consecutive ECMWF run w/ essentially a record breaking snow on the EC. The sern stream short wave has come onshore this afternoon, so it should pretty well sampled by tonight's 00z runs which of course, as we always say, are the most crucial thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 From today's analog set on the GFS from CIPS, there's only one Nina of their "top 15" -- rest are Nino's and Nada's This tells you how rare this setup is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 According to the 12z Euro, 10m winds are sustained at 50-55kt along the NJ coast and LI. Even 35kt around PHL at hour 114. 10m wind gusts get up to 55-60kt around the PHL area and closer to 70kt along the coast! Extremely impressive storm. I think high tides Sunday night are around 11-2am along the coast of NJ.....later for back bays...manasquan is around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 According to the 12z Euro, 10m winds are sustained at 50-55kt along the NJ coast and LI. Even 35kt around PHL at hour 114. 10m wind gusts get up to 55-60kt around the PHL area and closer to 70kt along the coast! Extremely impressive storm. Holy cow!! That is nuts. Is there a source to get ECMWF soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So forgive the weenie-like question, because I'm still relatively new to looking at models and extrapolating from them, but what does this 12z run bore out to regarding ratios from the South Jersey (2+ qpf) to the Pottstown (1.5 qpf) area? Would we still see relatively similar totals across this area due to higher ratios in the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A surface compromise between the 12z Euro and GFS would yield a mid 970s low in the NYC/NJ money zone. This is an invalid exercise, but somewhat comforting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 According to the 12z Euro, 10m winds are sustained at 50-55kt along the NJ coast and LI. Even 35kt around PHL at hour 114. 10m wind gusts get up to 55-60kt around the PHL area and closer to 70kt along the coast! Extremely impressive storm. Imagine the amount of warnings you'd see on the Jersey coast if this solution verified Blizzard Warning High Wind Warning Storm Warning Blowing Snow Warning Coastal Flood Warning am I missing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 According to the 12z Euro, 10m winds are sustained at 50-55kt along the NJ coast and LI. Even 35kt around PHL at hour 114. 10m wind gusts get up to 55-60kt around the PHL area and closer to 70kt along the coast! Extremely impressive storm. That would have to be up there with the all time greats such as the December 1992, Ash Wednesday 1962, and March 1993 in terms of combined impact from wind and water here. The snow would be great, but the NJ and Long Island beaches and likely even some communities on the coast (maybe even mine) would suffer very serious damage with that kind of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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