bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I never said there wouldn't be a storm. The storm on the Euro clearly moved north and east on the 0z run which put it more in line with every other model out there. The Euro has been on an island with its operational solution really from the get go. You would think 3 days out if the Euro was right that the other models would be making a clear move in its direction but they are not. The storm has been on the EURO for 8 runs in a row and until it pulls this thing out to sea, it must be taken extremely seriously. It went North and East on the 0z run but the storm is still there and until it is not, it cannot be just tossed out. Actually it is ludicrous to toss it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Be careful about lumping DC and NYC together. Considering how far north the phasing will likely take place, and with a closed upper low likely to form and capture the sfc low, NYC is in a much better position than DC. My thoughts are this is a true 'coastal' storm with minimal impact along I95 DC-NYC. As I was harping on all morning yesterday until told by DT I am a blind clown, the Euro had ZERO support, none, nada. If OT S was support, then it had some, but the Euro was all alone in it's HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My thoughts are this is a true 'coastal' storm with minimal impact along I95 DC-NYC. As I was harping on all morning yesterday until told by DT I am a blind clown, the Euro had ZERO support, none, nada. If OT S was support, then it had some, but the Euro was all alone in it's HECS. then why has the GFS and it's ensembles moved toward the Euro?.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro has already had a massive mid-range fail with the 12/19 storm Now just throwing it out there, but if the Euro does eventually cave and this ends up largely a miss how will it be regarded the rest of the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sounds good-- GFS had about 0.5" qpf for NYC.... however, it looked like the ensembles were a notch west so there is some room for it to come into better alignment with the Euro (50 miles west wouldnt be unreasonable.) Blending the 6z GFS, its ensembles, and the Euro would result in a very decent snow for us. Nothing historic, although it was probably to be expected since what the Euro showed yesterday is extremely rare and not really jiving with the progressive nature of Nina patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohnywx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Given the consistency of the ensemble guidance and early indication of an evolving Euro-GFS consensus, I'm not sure this run of the NAM will wind up being correct. If the GFS holds or comes a little west, that would probably ease some of the concern that has erupted in the wake of the NAM's bleak solution. From Don in the main 12Z thread...no one should be jumping off a bridge until the 12Z suite comes out fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Honestly in these situations you can't even lump NYC and PHL together.... Be careful about lumping DC and NYC together. Considering how far north the phasing will likely take place, and with a closed upper low likely to form and capture the sfc low, NYC is in a much better position than DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I never said there wouldn't be a storm. The storm on the Euro clearly moved north and east on the 0z run which put it more in line with every other model out there. The Euro has been on an island with its operational solution really from the get go. You would think 3 days out if the Euro was right that the other models would be making a clear move in its direction but they are not. The EURO was North and East in one run out of 8. It is just as likely that the storm will come back to where it was in the prior 7 runs as it is that it will remain the same as 0z last night or move closer to an OTS solution. Anyone telling me otherwise is just wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Keep us posted on your thoughts... Why would listen to that uninformed person - its ralph wiggum Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Now just throwing it out there, but if the Euro does eventually cave and this ends up largely a miss how will it be regarded the rest of the winter? It will be regarded as every other model should. You look at the initialization vs the sounding, look at its 12 to 24 hr forecast vs the soundings, take its biases into considerations, follow the output see if it seems logical, you compare it vs its ensemble members and other models and you go from there. Really gotta go now. Happy holidays everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My thoughts are this is a true 'coastal' storm with minimal impact along I95 DC-NYC. As I was harping on all morning yesterday until told by DT I am a blind clown, the Euro had ZERO support, none, nada. If OT S was support, then it had some, but the Euro was all alone in it's HECS. agree with you. Cant believe how everyone just dismissed any other solution other than the Euro and not saying it wont snow at all. We still have a shot at a moderate event but can people not show their bias so much and analyze what can go wrong as well as what can go right. Everyone jumping on the models that show snow while trashing the other models because they dont doesnt lead to good discussion and learning about weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My thoughts are this is a true 'coastal' storm with minimal impact along I95 DC-NYC. As I was harping on all morning yesterday until told by DT I am a blind clown, the Euro had ZERO support, none, nada. If OT S was support, then it had some, but the Euro was all alone in it's HECS. I won't call you a blind clown, but the GFS H5 patterns have suggested that the surface solution is too far east at both 0z and 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Correct me -- for I am still a weather neophyte. But it seems the massive fail that the everyone is talking about re: the 12/19 storm was 1 run of the euro which showed a huge hit, as opposed to the what 7 consecutive runs for this storm that it's showing for this storm? I'll take consistancy of that magnitude for now. Now from what I gather the GFS has moved west, so maybe NYC - DC isn't going to see the 1.5+ QPF, but I doubt we're going see a total whiff I think people are jumping overboard perhaps to early? -Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishIwas Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What time does the next Euro Run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The best part of this NAM run is that it looked good prior to reaching its less reliable range beyond 48-54 hours...at the very least its good that there were not more negatives inside that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Why would I wishcast for no snow? Believe me I want what the Euro was showing 2 nights ago but you need to have some reality here. Wishcasting truly is ignoring every model other than the Euro because the Euro is showing you getting dumped on. The EURO was North and East in one run out of 8. It is just as likely that the storm will come back to where it was in the prior 7 runs as it is that it will remain the same as 0z last night or move closer to an OTS solution. Anyone telling me otherwise is just wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It is all about the H500 low. If it STAYS closed the whole time it hits LA/AR/AL/GA and holds the closed low until SE of PHL, that's when we will get the all out historical snowstorm.... If it opens up, its faster, and can't slow down for the intense snow amounts. Speed will determine this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 - I Think these need to start being handed out, I come here looking for analysis, and all I see is a bunch of whiny bltches yelping about the NAM past 60 hrs...plz mods, put a stop to this nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Rossi, I am not he, but thanks, I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Why would listen to that uninformed person - its ralph wiggum Rossi Check your sarcasm detector... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 agree with you. Cant believe how everyone just dismissed any other solution other than the Euro and not saying it wont snow at all. We still have a shot at a moderate event but can people not show their bias so much and analyze what can go wrong as well as what can go right. Everyone jumping on the models that show snow while trashing the other models because they dont doesnt lead to good discussion and learning about weather Why would I wishcast for no snow? Believe me I want what the Euro was showing 2 nights ago but you need to have some reality here. Wishcasting truly is ignoring every model other than the Euro because the Euro is showing you getting dumped on. No one is discounting all the other models. People are discounting the NAM at this point because it is notoriously bad at this range and per Keith LI's post earlier in the thread it has already been wrong this winter when it was in it's range. Why should I take anything depicted on the NAM for this storm seriously at this point in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 HPC is using the 6z GFS as the middle of the road solution between the 0z Euro and 0z GFS. That's also how I crafted my forecast. That's where everyone's expectations should be at this time. The last three pages of this thread have been borderline unreadable. Let's pick up our games for the 12z GFS, folks. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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