tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 wow look at that northern stream dig south at hr 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think...man alive, this thing is really diving S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Still about 100+ miles between the N stream and the S stream shortwave at 69 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 wow look at that northern stream dig south at hr 69 might be too late for it to turn the corner though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The shots are certainitly hitting me. Good thing I'm not the one analyzing models I think I am going to take a few shots now. My head is scrambled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's dampening the shortwave in the Gulf now at 72 hours. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it looks like the nam misses the s/w here it drives it to the oil rigs in the middle of the gom..if it can just catch it this thing would go boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think I am going to take a few shots now. My head is scrambled right now. Not a bad idea. Take a couple, track the 06z gfs, and pass out as soon as it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 it looks like the nam misses the s/w here it drives it to the oil rigs in the middle of the gom..if it can just catch it this thing would go boom Eh..the northern stream might pick up enough of it to do the dirty work. The problem is that it did so 50 miles too far east..which I had noticed back when it was digging into the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 double WTF It just looses the shortwave and keeps diving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 100kt 250mb jet streak about to hit the trough base at 75 hrs...aim and fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 through 72, rh fields look dry.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_6z/wrf72.html indicitive of a dominant northern branch through the time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So 0z nam was to far north with the shortwave and phased it early in into the bigger northern stream.. and there fore cut the northern stream off from diving... The 6z nam keeps the shortwave intact but just keeps going south south and more.. south so the northern stream just can't capture it before it gets lost in the gulf. So can we get a nice in between solution and have the shortwave pass through LA.... and form a low along the Gulf coast please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah this NAM run is doomed. Forget what I said, it just missed the phase. Not that it matters, but yeah NAM is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 81 hours is so close it makes me want to cry...the southern stream is over Orlando. A piece of it phased in, it's trying, but it's just barely off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The phase is off but, im really liking the fact that the nam slowed the southern stream down alot....Man, if those two streams hook up at the right time we are game.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 81 hr 1000-500 thicknesses up the coast argue for a very close call IRT track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 not liking that ensemble run....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 not liking that ensemble run....? Compared to the 12z ensembles at 120, I can't really compare..given the 24 hr increments..but it doesn't look awful or ledge worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Compared to the 12z ensembles at 120, I can't really compare..given the 24 hr increments..but it doesn't look awful or ledge worthy. its the same as 12z...maybe a hair further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 its the same as 12z...maybe a hair further west. weaker tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So do you think we can disregard this run because it loses the shortwave, or is this viable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 lol the NAM says its going to take the s/w 30 hrs to get across TX and emerge into the NW gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM which was following the Euro relatively well at the 72-84 hour range up until its 18Z run yesterday afternoon has now had 2 relatively inconsistent runs in a row...of course the 06Z could be a typical blip off hour run deal...bottom line if the 12Z run shows something completely different AGAIN its safe to say the NAM is probably continuing to perform poorly as it was with the last event as well as its evolution of the norlun deal in New England which basically did not happen....I'm sticking with GEM/Euro/GFS for now unless the 12Z NAM has a solution similar to what it showed at 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So do you think we can disregard this run because it loses the shortwave, or is this viable? Tough call, some of the guidance weakens that southern PV so much it almost has no influence. This is going to be a real close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 well onto the gfs then bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It is interesting in that if the ECMWF didn't exist, all forecasts would be for this to harmlessly slide out to sea, and nobody would think twice. By the way, when was the first year of the ECMWF model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It is interesting in that if the ECMWF didn't exist, all forecasts would be for this to harmlessly slide out to sea, and nobody would think twice. By the way, when was the first year of the ECMWF model? The organization the ECMWF has existed since 75, the model I don't believe for that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It is interesting in that if the ECMWF didn't exist, all forecasts would be for this to harmlessly slide out to sea, and nobody would think twice. By the way, when was the first year of the ECMWF model? Not really. Many of the GFS ensemble members have a big hit, the op GFS has a monster scraping by, and the UK had a big hit (has just backed off some). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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