tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 48 h5 looks to be closed by a tiny tiny bit, but its gonna open up post hr 48...just remarkable differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Glad youre back for the late night crew! Do you think the nam initialized much better with this run than what it was showing with the 0z run at 6 hrs? it definintely looks like it did to my eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 big thing we need to slow this down, you need that low to close off at h5 over tex, thats pretty key..gfs and gem didnt do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run is a complete 180 from the 00z run..it looks like a distinct possibility that this shortwave goes right into the Gulf. The Northern stream is a complete mess too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 54 h5 looks to be closed by a tiny tiny bit, but its gonna open up post hr 54...just remarkable differences. I cant tell you what this storm is going to do, but I can make one sure-fire forecast: Today is going to be a WILD day on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Glad youre back for the late night crew! Do you think the nam initialized much better with this run than what it was showing with the 0z run at 6 hrs? I would say yeah. It is back in tow with what we had been seeing for a few days now...and that is a cutoff solution. It will be real tough for this wave to pass over the baroclinic void that is the Rocky mountains still connected to the northern stream. Mostly why I didn't fully give up on the Euro before the 0Z came out...models will flip flop sometimes (drastically at times) when it comes to "cutting off" a wave. It is the same deal with low amplitude phasing of waves...models can sometimes struggle mightily with that process...and you get the hugely disparate solutions when in reality the changes are quite small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 holy monkey still closed off at hr 51...no way 6z nam has the shortwave south of dallas...0z has it in northern miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 s/w way slower. Geez talk about different in comparions with the 0z. I'm no expert, but so far I'm liking this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 holy monkey still closed off at hr 51...no way Closed off or not you can see by the wind barbs that it is a very tight, compact and strong shortwave and it's very close to closing off the entire time basically from 33-54 hrs. That being said the northern stream still seems to have too much of an easterly component here. Thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 For reference, the shortwave is on the Gulf Coast at 54 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 this run seems to bullish am i rite or wrong here guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 lol holy monkey still closed off at hr 51...no way 6z nam has the shortwave south of dallas...0z has it in northern miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Northern stream is trying so hard...it's going to dig until it gets the shortwave which is now turning east towards the LA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 you really can't even compare the h5 at 0z its just so off it throws you off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 The H5 heights on the east coast are just so flat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 this run seems to bullish am i rite or wrong here guys? Correct me if I am wrong, but personally I am thinking if anything the 0z run might have been the one that was a little to bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I cant tell you what this storm is going to do, but I can make one sure-fire forecast: Today is going to be a WILD day on here! its going to be like that in gen...if euro holds people will go nuts if it moves east bannings and 5 limit posts everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I actually think this run may end quite good. That secondary jet is diving into the plains now...and that is what we want interacting with that compact PV. This trough will likely develop well into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Northern stream is trying so hard...it's going to dig until it gets the shortwave which is now turning east towards the LA coast. getting close there with that northern stream... i think we have till about the panhandle to phase at the latest? euro had it phased by 72 at the latest, (according to ewalls increments) .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The H5 heights on the east coast are just so flat.. they are pumping at hr 60...the s/w is still in tx lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 60 hrs the shortwave is into the Gulf...the northern stream is trying so hard..and the ridge on the west coast is going nuts. But I just can't get over how flat the heights are along the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Shortwave is about 50 miles south of the LA coast at 63 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 60 hrs the shortwave is into the Gulf...the northern stream is trying so hard..and the ridge on the west coast is going nuts. But I just can't get over how flat the heights are along the East coast. They are flat, but that is because this thing is taking its dear old time. Once the cyclogenesis develops in the GOM, upper level heights will respond fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 They are flat, but that is because this thing is taking its dear old time. Once the cyclogenesis develops in the GOM, upper level heights will respond fast. Agree..it just seems to be a hair to the east to me. Might just be 3:30am hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the h5 over ther lakes looks like its gonna close off soon...that s/w south of the la coast is just waiting to be picked up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 66 hr panel is just ridiculous...huge closed mid level shortwave is entering MN crossing the International Border..the heights along the plains are more N-S oriented than I have seen yet on any model other than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Agree..it just seems to be a hair to the east to me. Might just be 3:30am hallucinations. or those shots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The southern PV is deforming by 63 hrs, this means the phase is beginning and this thing will eject rapidly NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 or those shots? That too, lol. That being said..the shortwave is still moving southeast into the Gulf at 66 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 or those shots? The shots are certainitly hitting me. Good thing I'm not the one analyzing models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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