tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 anyone know what the ggem ensembles did tonight? on allans site prob by 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 anyone know what the ggem ensembles did tonight? Here you go, nothing too dramatic. Seem generally in step with the OP. A few of them are way to the west. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=96&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow, through 24 hours the NAM is really much slower than it's earlier run at 00z. There are some kind of major issues going on here within the NCEP (and some global) modeling scheme that are causing these major timing differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow, through 24 hours the NAM is really much slower than it's earlier runs. There are some kind of major issues going on here within the NCEP (and some global) modeling scheme that are causing these major timing differences. northern stream is a good bit stronger to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The initialization of the shortwave on 6z nam matched up much better with actual than 6hrs on 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 wooooo hr 33 closed h5 just like the euro...0z nam never had tahat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 wooooo hr 33 closed h5 just like the euro...0z nam never had tahat Closed is good, but slower is better. Through 24 hours on NCEP you can see the 50-100 mile timing difference compared to the 00z NAM. It's essentially the same timing as the 18z NAM with a much more favorable northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 found them on the ggem website,looks to be well west of the op red flag there id say. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 30 hours on NCEP the differences are just ridiculous. Somebody is seriously out to lunch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 huge lol at the differences between the 0z nam and 6z at h5...hr 36 closed h5 low east of whichita falls, like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Pretty wild spread to the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 30 hours on NCEP the differences are just ridiculous. Somebody is seriously out to lunch here. Agreed, the NAM is a big pile. I am definitely not going to even bother analyzing it on the 0Z discussion again. There is a 6Z thread already, not biting on that! Seriously though, this storm is going to be a fun one to watch and develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 wow still closed low at hr 39, its unbelievable the differences at h5.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Forget the SREFs, all they have done last storm and thus far with this event is waffle all over the place, they've been basically useless....I said last night there was so much waffling that Aunt Jemima rolled over in her grave. Yeah the sref have been clueless all winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Agreed, the NAM is a big pile. I am definitely not going to even bother analyzing it on the 0Z discussion again. There is a 6Z thread already, not biting on that! Seriously though, this storm is going to be a fun one to watch and develop. Dude..these storms only come around every once and a while and we have the late night crew in here, you better analyze with us. Seriously though..this is a 30 hour forecast, and the differences are a complete joke. Essentially one of two things is happening here--either the 06z run has insufficient data, or the 00z run was just a lemon. 30 hrs 06z http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_500_030s.gif 24 hrs 00z http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_036s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Agreed, the NAM is a big pile. I am definitely not going to even bother analyzing it on the 0Z discussion again. There is a 6Z thread already, not biting on that! Seriously though, this storm is going to be a fun one to watch and develop. i was wondering if you were going to show up.. you sure you dont want to start a 6z nam thread in the main forum lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah the sref have been clueless all winter lol. The mesoscale models are having serious issues with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 found them on the ggem website,looks to be well west of the op red flag there id say. http://www.weatherof...s/cartes_e.html Sounds about right, DT mentioned the 0z ggem completly missed the shortwave at 36, said throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 h5 still closed at hr 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Differences? I see no differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Dude..these storms only come around every once and a while and we have the late night crew in here, you better analyze with us. Seriously though..this is a 30 hour forecast, and the differences are a complete joke. Essentially one of two things is happening here--either the 06z run has insufficient data, or the 00z run was just a lemon. 30 hrs 06z http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_030s.gif 24 hrs 00z http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_036s.gif i was wondering if you were going to show up.. you sure you dont want to start a 6z nam thread in the main forum lol? Yeah lol, I just took a glance at the 6Z NAM and it is all over the map. It is having huge issues with the detachment of the southern stream PV. Looks like the 6Z is trying to cut it off again, hence the slow solution. It does make it look real bad though...although I will say a tiny difference in initialization can result in what looks like a massive difference...like we have here. Haha, I am going to do it though....this NAM run has more potential than the 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 h5 still closed at hr 42 At this point the NAM is good to look at with initialization bc within 48hrs its surely trustworthy/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 I would have to analog the NAM to the A.J Burnett of weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it's a good thing it's remaining seperate from the northern stream early on unlike the 0z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 h5 still closed at hr 45 its unbelievab;le how much slower it is compared to 0z...the northern stream is also not as bullish diving down to phase as quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah lol, I just took a glance at the 6Z NAM and it is all over the map. It is having huge issues with the detachment of the southern stream PV. Looks like the 6Z is trying to cut it off again, hence the slow solution. It does make it look real bad though. Haha, I am going to do it though....this NAM run has more potential than the 0Z. Glad youre back for the late night crew! Do you think the nam initialized much better with this run than what it was showing with the 0z run at 6 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 h5 still closed at hr 45 its unbelievab;le how much slower it is compared to 0z...the northern stream is also not as bullish diving down to phase as quickly Well this we need to happen..it needs to dive down eventually and capture the shortwave and not completely dampen it out in similar fashion to the UK and GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Glad youre back for the late night crew! Do you think the nam initialized much better with this run than what it was showing with the 0z run at 6 hrs? Question wasn't directed at me but it's definitely hard to tell. It's a mesoscale mess out there on NAM initialization. What happens thereafter is where the differences lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hour 48 the differences are comical..The H5 low is still back in TX whereas at 00z it was already phasing in MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just got through averaging out the QPF of the GFS ensembles from 0z and it comes out to 0.35-- I took the lower end of the scale for each member, so it could conceivably be as high as 0.50 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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