eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Got this from the main model thread: FWIW all but 3 of the GFS ensemble member are west of the OP and stronger with the coastal low through hr 72. Yes, of the 11 members: 5 are clearly better than OP 3 or 4 are worse 2 or 3 are about the same A few are very significant hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Cant remember too many cases where this might not have happened-- however, Jan 96 might have been an incidence when NYC and BGM both got heavy snow-- however, I dont think Albany did. BGM I think saw 2-3 inches while Scranton was buried...the storm tracked close enough that BGM SHOULD have seen more but the high to the north was just too strong....there was a record cutoff somewhere south of Albany...at one point there was a town with 24 inches....25 miles north of them nothing fell at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You know I sitting here at 2am saying to myself that GFS may be correct after all in the final solution as I don't like the trend of the GEM this evening. I don't jump on one run of a model but I am not trilled how this is trending at all, we shall see. NYC Metro could once again be in the screw zone if you like snow. I know what the euro is doing but that is soon to become the outlier if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm not talking that far west. For example, NYC's qpf was cut down a hair, as was Trenton's. East of both sections there's minimal differences. A hair? More like almost in half... had 1.6+ on the old run, now barely 0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 A hair? More like almost in half... had 1.6+ on the old run, now barely 0.9 What might explain it better is that there is such a sharp gradient separating the QPF's, such as 25-30 miles or so, something that needs to be watched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I've said for a few winters now that the GFS Ensembles being north/west or more amplified than the Operational run is usually a little red flag waving in the back of your head. So we can consider tonight's ensembles just that. Especially considering ensembles usually are biased SE of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 BGM I think saw 2-3 inches while Scranton was buried...the storm tracked close enough that BGM SHOULD have seen more but the high to the north was just too strong....there was a record cutoff somewhere south of Albany...at one point there was a town with 24 inches....25 miles north of them nothing fell at all... LOL that really sounds a lot like 2/6/10 from last winter, except the cut off was displaced much further north. But Jan 96 was a much more intense storm. Im so glad the GFS/AVN was wrong about us missing Jan 96 in the days leading up to that blockbuster. Too bad it couldnt be right when it forecast we would get at least a moderate hit on 2/6/10 last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS ensembles through 90 http://raleighwx.ame...rs/00zf090.html 96 http://raleighwx.ame...rs/00zf096.html Not bad at all I could just be drunk, but honestly those look good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 heres the 0z indiv tot precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 2 of those are actually really good for us (1+ inch qpf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I would say 4 of those are pretty good for us (.5 inch qpf or more.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The mean looked to have .50 to .75 most areas in tri-state, more east less west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The mean looked to have .50 to .75 most areas in tri-state, more east less west. It's very hard for me to distinguish between the .25 light blue and the .5 medium blue on my monitor, I wish we could magnify those maps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Who's ready for the NAM? I can't take it anymore, I'm physically tired of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Who's ready for the NAM? I can't take it anymore, I'm physically tired of models. lol i am, but no gfs for me tonight unless nam trends great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sref;s not to good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, the SREF's are a big time whiff to the right. Too far out for major consideration though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 so far thru 12 on 6z nam, shortwave is slower and more ridging in front of it relative to 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Also..they seem better than their 21z run. So nothing totally awful here--the SREF mean has been indicating a seaward solution for a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, the SREF's are a big time whiff to the right. Too far out for major consideration though. Forget the SREFs, all they have done last storm and thus far with this event is waffle all over the place, they've been basically useless....I said last night there was so much waffling that Aunt Jemima rolled over in her grave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM out to hr 18, its noticeably slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 You will never, ever, see me make this post..but the differences on the 12 hr NAM compared to the 18 hr 00z NAM are laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 wow nam is big time slower so far through 21, trying to also close off the low at hr 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Cant remember too many cases where this might not have happened-- however, Jan 96 might have been an incidence when NYC and BGM both got heavy snow-- however, I dont think Albany did. PDII I experienced both, after 17 openend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I magnified that image up to 7 megapixels and its still hard to read because the lines are so close together lol. But here is what I can tell: COD1 0.25 COD0 0.50 POD1 0.03 POD2 1.00 + POD3 0.25 POD4 0.10 POD5 0.50 POD6 0.00 POD7 0.50 POD8 0.03 POD9 1.00+ POD10 0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You will never, ever, see me make this post..but the differences on the 12 hr NAM compared to the 18 hr 00z NAM are laughable. thats why i dont get why everyone was bickering over the 0z nam at hr 84 when it can't even be constant with 12hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Here's another good look, by the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 thats why i dont get why everyone was bickering over the 0z nam at hr 84 when it can't even be constant with 12hrs. I went out at like 9:30 because I knew it was going to happen. Took a nice trip to Dunkin Donuts and had a few shots at a friends house afterwards. Figured it would be more productive to come back with the late night crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 anyone know what the ggem ensembles did tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I went out at like 9:30 because I knew it was going to happen. Took a nice trip to Dunkin Donuts and had a few shots at a friends house afterwards. Figured it would be more productive to come back with the late night crew. when im doing the euro usually i do 7n7 lol...anyways through 33 the nam continues much slower, s/w looks stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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