NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential Part 3

[green tube]

He might, I'm not to sure tho

well where did you get jeff B's quote from?

[earthlight]

Euro is still showing a major snowstorm...not complaining at the moment.

[eduggs]

But I will stress this... the 00z GFS is a major hit for all. The precip shield is just not correct and so it looks like a miss.

From Jeff B

I'm not sure I agree with him 100%, but I definitely see why he would believe this. The GEFSs were more important to me. Between the ensemble mean and the op Euro we have some consensus for a moderate or better snowstorm!

I'm curious about the Euro ensembles and also if any GGEM ensemble members impact the coast (to a lesser degree).

[jconsor]

FWIW (mainly for entertainment purposes this far out), the top 5 analogs for the 12z GFS at 120 hours are:

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php

Dec 20 2009 near-blizzard

Feb 9 1987 (compact ~984 mb low that tracked a little outside benchmark; accumulating snow confined to Delmarva/S NJ/SE New England; up to 10" in a few areas)

Jan 8 1996 blizzard

Jan 23 2005 blizzard

Mar 30 1984 (very intense nor'easter with 70 mph gusts in NYC, 6"+ snow over much of SNE and 1 foot+ from N-central PA into central NY)

[earthlight]

If this storm pans out, we'll all chip in lol.

If this storm pans out, I will buy snowgoose a celebratory shot at the conference.

[A-L-E-X]

It was more due to the fact the general belief is that now this thing is better sampled the models are catching onto the miss...I still think that unless something changes with the orientation to the ridge/trough in the west and east this is going to be a major league scraper and could have some sick cutoffs near the coast...we could see something close to what we had in December of last year.

Ah ok-- now I see..... that was the storm that dropped 2 feet plus in eastern suffolk, 14-15 inches here, close to a foot in the city and radically less once you got west of there. So basically Feb 89 but the track adjusted maybe 100 miles west of there?

[whiteoutwx1796]

well where did you get jeff B's quote from?

I found it. This is the website I'm talking about; but I'm not sure he updates it anymore.

http://www.weatherprofessor.com/

[ArtRosen]

But I will stress this... the 00z GFS is a major hit for all. The precip shield is just not correct and so it looks like a miss.

From Jeff B

really miss jeff b. was one of the only guys who got me interested in weather.

[TwcMan]

well where did you get jeff B's quote from?

check your inbox

[A-L-E-X]

If this storm pans out, I will buy snowgoose a celebratory shot at the conference.

Definitely lol-- we'll all be in a celebratory mood. With the way this month has gone, might as well end it with a bang!

[A-L-E-X]

FWIW (mainly for entertainment purposes this far out), the top 5 analogs for the 12z GFS at 120 hours are:

http://www.eas.slu.e...ALOG/analog.php

Dec 20 2009 near-blizzard

Feb 9 1987 (compact ~984 mb low that tracked a little outside benchmark; accumulating snow confined to Delmarva/S NJ/SE New England; up to 10" in a few areas)

Jan 8 1996 blizzard

Jan 23 2005 blizzard

Mar 30 1984 (very intense nor'easter with 70 mph gusts in NYC, 6"+ snow over much of SNE and 1 foot+ from N-central PA into central NY)

hmmm I wonder what the euro analogs are? Could 4/15/2007 Tax Day noreaster be one of them?

[green tube]

Euro is still showing a major snowstorm...not complaining at the moment.

LOL. "at the moment" is quite the qualifier.

[jconsor]

I agree that at this point the most likely solution is one which hits eastern LI and eastern New England hardest. Dec 19, 2009 may not be a bad analog, except given the orientation of this one it is likely hit to E New England harder than Dec 2009, while possibly only scraping the DC area.

It was more due to the fact the general belief is that now this thing is better sampled the models are catching onto the miss...I still think that unless something changes with the orientation to the ridge/trough in the west and east this is going to be a major league scraper and could have some sick cutoffs near the coast...we could see something close to what we had in December of last year.

[A-L-E-X]

Got this from the main model thread:

FWIW all but 3 of the GFS ensemble member are west of the OP and stronger with the coastal low through hr 72.

[SnowGoose69]

FWIW (mainly for entertainment purposes this far out), the top 5 analogs for the 12z GFS at 120 hours are:

http://www.eas.slu.e...ALOG/analog.php

Dec 20 2009 near-blizzard

Feb 9 1987 (compact ~984 mb low that tracked a little outside benchmark; accumulating snow confined to Delmarva/S NJ/SE New England; up to 10" in a few areas)

Jan 8 1996 blizzard

Jan 23 2005 blizzard

Mar 30 1984 (very intense nor'easter with 70 mph gusts in NYC, 6"+ snow over much of SNE and 1 foot+ from N-central PA into central NY)

January 96 is the closest based on the synoptic pattern....2/9/87, 1/23/05, 3/30/84 all developed way north of where most models indicate this will...the coastal didnt form til the Delmarva or even north of that.....3/30/84 was the only one which did not have a ridge out west.

[MJO812]

GFS ensembles through 90

http://raleighwx.ame...rs/00zf090.html

96

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf096.html

Not bad at all

[whiteoutwx1796]

LOL. "at the moment" is quite the qualifier.

It sure is. It has cut some totals down from it's 12z run, especially for further west sections.

[A-L-E-X]

I agree that at this point the most likely solution is one which hits eastern LI and eastern New England hardest - Dec 19, 2009 may not be a bad analog, except given the orientation of this one it will likely hit E New England harder and possibly only scrape the DC area.

I think parts of SE new england got close to 2 feet in that. Do you think western LI and NYC can get to the 12-15 range, like with that storm? Being about 25 miles SE of NYC, I feel like Im in a pretty good spot lol.

[whiteoutwx1796]

GFS ensembles through 90

http://raleighwx.ame...rs/00zf090.html

Not bad at all

They are pretty much in line w/ the OP.

Edit: Just saw 96 and they are further west.

[Rib]

Try to avoid the "looks good" posts because your backyard is not the only area that this thread covers. I'm trying to avoid a future type of flamewar which has happened in the past.

[jm1220]

It sure is. It has cut some totals down from it's 12z run, especially for further west sections.

I doubt this is a storm for the Poconos/Catskills and west. The only people really in the game are near the coast. It took pretty much the perfect scenario for people west of that to get hit.

[real]

FWIW (mainly for entertainment purposes this far out), the top 5 analogs for the 12z GFS at 120 hours are:

http://www.eas.slu.e...ALOG/analog.php

Dec 20 2009 near-blizzard

Feb 9 1987 (compact ~984 mb low that tracked a little outside benchmark; accumulating snow confined to Delmarva/S NJ/SE New England; up to 10" in a few areas)

Jan 8 1996 blizzard

Jan 23 2005 blizzard

Mar 30 1984 (very intense nor'easter with 70 mph gusts in NYC, 6"+ snow over much of SNE and 1 foot+ from N-central PA into central NY)

Can u explain that to someone not familar. Does the 12z GFS, as depicted, most closely resemble those storms?

[tombo82685]

from greatest to least

dark gray 2-2.5

pink 1.75-2

lgt pink 1.5-1.75

blue 1.25-1.5

lgt purple 1-1.25

turqouise .75-1

white .5-.75

green .25-.5

lgt green <.25

[whiteoutwx1796]

I doubt this is a storm for the Poconos/Catskills and west. The only people really in the game are near the coast. It took pretty much the perfect scenario for people west of that to get hit.

I'm not talking that far west. For example, NYC's qpf was cut down a hair, as was Trenton's. East of both sections there's minimal differences.

[tmagan]

Ah ok-- now I see..... that was the storm that dropped 2 feet plus in eastern suffolk, 14-15 inches here, close to a foot in the city and radically less once you got west of there. So basically Feb 89 but the track adjusted maybe 100 miles west of there?

Never forget Feb. '89.

By the way looks like mid 40's a week from now, maybe rain for the winter classic.

[A-L-E-X]

I'm not talking that far west. For example, NYC's qpf was cut down a hair, as was Trenton's. East of both sections there's minimal differences.

I agree-- and its almost dead on the same from the euro run from 24 hours ago in terms of qpf only.

[SnowGoose69]

I doubt this is a storm for the Poconos/Catskills and west. The only people really in the game are near the coast. It took pretty much the perfect scenario for people west of that to get hit.

Its not unusual for Scranton or Monticello to see big snows when NYC does, but if anyone more than say 50 miles north-northwest of them does, chances are NYC is seeing precip type issues...the classic cutoff for the big snows in a good track for significant snows across the main tri-state area generally sits near those two cities...if BGM is seeing snow either you have a very strong ULL cutting through behind the storm or there is at the very least sleet into most of coastal CT/LI...at the very least...

[A-L-E-X]

Its not unusual for Scranton or Monticello to see big snows when NYC does, but if anyone more than say 50 miles north-northwest of them does, chances are NYC is seeing precip type issues...the classic cutoff for the big snows in a good track for significant snows across the main tri-state area generally sits near those two cities...if BGM is seeing snow either you have a very strong ULL cutting through behind the storm or there is at the very least sleet into most of coastal CT/LI...at the very least...

Cant remember too many cases where this might not have happened-- however, Jan 96 might have been an incidence when NYC and BGM both got heavy snow-- however, I dont think Albany did.

[earthlight]

GFS ensembles through 90

http://raleighwx.ame...rs/00zf090.html

96

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf096.html

Not bad at all

I've said for a few winters now that the GFS Ensembles being north/west or more amplified than the Operational run is usually a little red flag waving in the back of your head. So we can consider tonight's ensembles just that.

[tmagan]

Cant remember too many cases where this might not have happened-- however, Jan 96 might have been an incidence when NYC and BGM both got heavy snow-- however, I dont think Albany did.

It was south of Albany. I have my axis of 75 miles of heavy snow for most winter storms at our latitude.