NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential Part 3

[A-L-E-X]

Hahaha noo too depressing. Thanks for posting though!

Actually not as bad as you might think if youre from the NYC area.

Tombo, I think if youll compare the qpf totals from last night's euro to tonight's euro-- the numbers are very similar, although the track and speed are somewhat different lol.

[NortheastPAWx]

Its possible, and the same brand (different flavor) of mis-analysis occurred last week when the shortwave came ashore (except it was too strong instead of too weak). That's the sort of thing that messed up the EC for that one run it showed the bomb.

Like I said before, the shortwave should be well sampled at 12Z.

Yeah, it looked like the s/w still hadn't jumped fully onshore as of 0z...that gives those of us who are on the edge some hope.

If 12z continues the trends, then we can definitely start to call it off for certain areas.

[NaoPos]

current:

[tombo82685]

Actually not as bad as you might think if youre from the NYC area.

Tombo, I think if youll compare the qpf totals from last night's euro to tonight's euro-- the numbers are very similar, although the track and speed are somewhat different lol.

yea its impossible now since this is the 0z run...but you can dig it up in the old thread.

[weatherweather]

heres a link to midlos post init image

definitely was closed at 0z

Edit: its about the 10th post down

[famartin]

Ray, wth is the raob deal with the south Nevada air force base or whatever was there. They used to do RAOBs all the time except weekends/holidays but i haven't seen them do one in a long time. rrs upgrade or did they shut down?

They're shut down. They should start doing RAOBs at WFO Vegas early in 2011. I don't recall the exact date, but February comes to mind.

[Collegestudent11]

I think my question was buried, so i will ask it again. When does the precipitation start as per the Euro, 12z sunday?

[jm1220]

SO JM would that give us a better idea by 12z tomorrow or 0z tomorrow night with the new data?

I would have to think 12z will be a much more informed run with actual obs/data than prior runs on all models. I'm not sure if NOAA sent a recon out into the Pacific to collect data on this, but satellite is just far inferior to actual obs made by balloons and sondes. If the 12z runs tomorrow have a bomb, I will grow far more optimistic about the threat than now. If 0z tomorrow does, I'll honk and scream like a hyena. This whole setup has a ton of potential if it comes together properly for sure.

[Dark Energy]

I think my question was buried, so i will ask it again. When does the precipitation start as per the Euro, 12z sunday?

yea, okx has slight chc pops for late sat night with last forecast. how's that lookin now with tonights run?

[tombo82685]

I think my question was buried, so i will ask it again. When does the precipitation start as per the Euro, 12z sunday?

18z sun, so noon

[tombo82685]

yea, okx has slight chc pops for late sat night with last forecast. how's that lookin now with tonights run?

nw nj, prob gets into lgt prec bout 20z sun

[eduggs]

All guidance now clearly showing an offshore coasal track. The GFS track can't be more than 50-100 miles east of the Euro position for most of its pass now, though the Euro low and mid level flow is healthier on the western side. We don't really have much more room for eastward adjustment.

I'm relieved the Euro is still showing a big hit for most. I was concerned this cycle would dig us a whole from which we'd struggle to recover. Who knows, maybe things edge back west tomorrow?

[TwcMan]

But I will stress this... the 00z GFS is a major hit for all. The precip shield is just not correct and so it looks like a miss.

From Jeff B

[Collegestudent11]

18z sun, so noon

Thank you.

[whiteoutwx1796]

But I will stress this... the 00z GFS is a major hit for all. The precip shield is just not correct and so it looks like a miss.

From Jeff B

Who's Jeff B?

[SnowGoose69]

But I will stress this... the 00z GFS is a major hit for all. The precip shield is just not correct and so it looks like a miss.

From Jeff B

I can't really argue with that, that seems about right.

[MJO812]

Jeff Berardelli posted this on Tristateweatherboard

Well this run is just fine... still on target and consistent with three days worth of EC runs.

One thing to watch and likely the only major caveat is that vortmax over New England Day 3. On the EC it is weak enuf to allow the trough to deepen/ go negative. But on some of the other models esp the UKMET and GGEM that energy is tilting the trough positive for too long and by the time the trough pivits its too late. that's why those 2 runs are out to sea.

But I will stress this... the 00z GFS is a major hit for all. The precip shield is just not correct and so it looks like a miss. It's not. And of course the EC is also a major hit... and not that it means all that much but the 00z NAM is also a very good run for you.

So just watch the energy on the NE side of the trough over New Eng on Sat Eve... the less, the better = less confluence.

[TwcMan]

Who's Jeff B?

jeff berardelli

[weatherweather]

At 6:40z, while not closed off, the sw is a lot closer to being so than nam gfs ukie etc

sorry dont have an image printscreen isnt workin dunno whats goin on

Oh edit: didnt realize gfs was closed off at 6z. But it still looks to be slightly slower than gfs

[A-L-E-X]

All guidance now clearly showing an offshore coasal track. The GFS track can't be more than 50-100 miles east of the Euro position for most of its pass now, though the Euro low and mid level flow is healthier on the western side. We don't really have much more room for eastward adjustment.

I'm relieved the Euro is still showing a big hit for most. I was concerned this cycle would dig us a whole from which we'd struggle to recover. Who knows, maybe things edge back west tomorrow?

I think SG lost $150 because he thought the Euro would track east of the GFS lol.

[SnowGoose69]

I think SG lost $150 because he thought the Euro would track east of the GFS lol.

Yup...lost that one....It was almost a draw...

[A-L-E-X]

I can't really argue with that, that seems about right.

SG, why were people in such a panic at around 11? I thought the GFS had it going out to Bermuda when I read the kind of mood everyone was in lol.

[A-L-E-X]

Yup...lost that one....It was almost a draw...

If this storm pans out, we'll all chip in lol.

[whiteoutwx1796]

jeff berardelli

Figured as much. Does he still have that website? The educational one?

[MD Snow]

Tombo, anyway we can get a color qpf map of the EURO at some point?

[TwcMan]

Jeff Berardelli is a damn good met...I miss him on channel 2

[TwcMan]

Figured as much. Does he still have that website? The educational one?

He might, I'm not to sure tho

[tombo82685]

Tombo, anyway we can get a color qpf map of the EURO at some point?

yea ill do one...hold on

[SnowGoose69]

SG, why were people in such a panic at around 11? I thought the GFS had it going out to Bermuda when I read the kind of mood everyone was in lol.

It was more due to the fact the general belief is that now this thing is better sampled the models are catching onto the miss...I still think that unless something changes with the orientation to the ridge/trough in the west and east this is going to be a major league scraper and could have some sick cutoffs near the coast...we could see something close to what we had in December of last year.

[tmagan]

If its 100-150 miles E of Toms River then its inside the benchmark by atleast 100 miles..

Is it 69 miles for every degree of latitude or longitude?

Latitude, for longitude it is variable.