green tube Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 so for nyc area it looks like about a 12 hour event, starting early sunday evening. is that about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 qpf phl ,75 nyc 1-1.1 ttn .8 abe .5 rdg .4 hazleton .25 ac 1.5 dov .75 mmu .75 eastern li 1.5-1.75 central li 1.25-1.5 western li 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yea, I dont know why people thought the euro would cave in completely-- the GFS did some of that today. This is a compromised track which leans more towards the euro-- which is pretty much what HPC said would happen. A Euro-leaning compromise wouldn't be too bad. Hopefully it isn't the start of a faster trend on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 im so amazed it is still keeping the pressure that low. amazed! that central pressure is what you see when a low wraps up over the north atlantic. wow. Agreed. The Euro has been incredibly persistent with the sub 968 solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Correct. It is a whole lot faster but still amplifies. Great. I'd rather it rapidly deepen and occlude north off the Delmarva and SNJ than Hat and Virginia Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 qpf phl ,75 nyc 1-1.1 ttn .8 abe .5 rdg .4 hazleton .25 ac 1.5 dov .75 mmu .75 eastern li 1.5-1.75 central li 1.25-1.5 western li 1-1.25 i'll take it!..I knew Euro woudn't cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sucks for them down south, but this run amplifies and gets captured on time for us, and takes a nice track for the City. I can live with this. Still a nice run, but faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow...still a nice hit. 1.00"+ QPF NYC. The surface low still tucks inside the benchmark. If its 100-150 miles E of Toms River then its inside the benchmark by atleast 100 miles.. Is it 69 miles for every degree of latitude or longitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 if ac gets 1.5" qpf, then this run still must not be that far off from a bigger hit for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The bottom line is this, the faster the southern S/W is, the likely weaker it is and likely further east the ultimate solution will be. That simple. The Euro sped up a little bit but is still nowhere near the GFS depiction at 60. The Euro has a strong, separate feature near Houston that's cut off at that point. The GFS has it near Montgomery, AL and has it as a somewhat sheared out feature getting eaten up by the northern stream. The ggem doesn't even have a southern feature by then. The stronger and more held back that feature is, the more the northern branch energy dives into it and the further west the phase and ultimate capture is. If it speeds up to the east like the GFS, it causes the whole trough to broaden and shear out as the northern stream feature has to take more time to catch it and phase. We want the phase to happen near the MS Valley so that the capture can take place while the low is still near the NC or SC coast. The wave sped up a little on this Euro run, but not much at all. It also remains a much stronger and distinguished feature. The model war continues!! Tomorrow should bring a more unified solution (hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Meh, sliced QPF in half back home.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 JM, I think western long island might be the place to be with this kind of run, as places well to the east like coastal ne might be mixing or changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The bottom line is this, the faster the southern S/W is, the likely weaker it is and likely further east the ultimate solution will be. That simple. The Euro sped up a little bit but is still nowhere near the GFS depiction at 60. The Euro has a strong, separate feature near Houston that's cut off at that point. The GFS has it near Montgomery, AL and has it as a somewhat sheared out feature getting eaten up by the northern stream. The ggem doesn't even have a southern feature by then. The stronger and more held back that feature is, the more the northern branch energy dives into it and the further west the phase and ultimate capture is. If it speeds up to the east like the GFS, it causes the whole trough to broaden and shear out as the northern stream feature has to take more time to catch it and phase. We want the phase to happen near the MS Valley so that the capture can take place while the low is still near the NC or SC coast. The wave sped up a little on this Euro run, but not much at all. It also remains a much stronger and distinguished feature. The model war continues!! Tomorrow should bring a more unified solution (hopefully). Yea thats what im wondering. In the 0z model thread midlo posted images of ggem gfs ukie init and the sw was noticeably weaker than actual. Im wondering if the euro had the same problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sucks for them down south, but this run amplifies and gets captured on time for us, and takes a nice track for the City. I can live with this. Still a nice run, but faster. Yep, I'm happy with this run as long as it's not the start of a trend. Could've been a lot worse considering how crappy all of the other models looked. It also shows that a slightly faster solution would still be able to hit our area pretty hard. We definitely have more wiggle room than MD/DC/VA do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 QPF for Hudson Valley? by white plains .75-1 up the hudson to albany .5-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 qpf phl ,75 nyc 1-1.1 ttn .8 abe .5 rdg .4 hazleton .25 ac 1.5 dov .75 mmu .75 eastern li 1.5-1.75 central li 1.25-1.5 western li 1-1.25 this differs quite a bit from the map you made earlier today, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Tombo, any way you can give comparative qpfs for balt/ dc area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 dc gets .1 balt is .2-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yea thats what im wondering. In the 0z model thread midlo posted images of ggem gfs ukie init and the sw was noticeably weaker than actual. Im wondering if the euro had the same problem. Its possible, and the same brand (different flavor) of mis-analysis occurred last week when the shortwave came ashore (except it was too strong instead of too weak). That's the sort of thing that messed up the EC for that one run it showed the bomb. Like I said before, the shortwave should be well sampled at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Tombo, any way you can give comparative qpfs for balt/ dc area? just posted it...do u want me to compare them to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yea thats what im wondering. In the 0z model thread midlo posted images of ggem gfs ukie init and the sw was noticeably weaker than actual. Im wondering if the euro had the same problem. We should know by 12z tomorrow what the truth is. The RUC init at least had a closed 534 contour near L.A. tonight, and every model was open with the wave at init. Tomorrow it will be very well sampled as it heads almost directly over Los Angeles and southern Cal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 this differs quite a bit from the map you made earlier today, no? NYC went from like 1.65 back to 1.1 But 1.1 is what the qpf estimate was in the euro run prior to that from 0z last night. QPF totals look a lot like what the 0z euro had last night, at least for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 dc gets .1 balt is .2-.25 Sorry to ask.. but SW CT totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 just posted it...do u want me to compare them to 12z? Hahaha noo too depressing. Thanks for posting though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Its possible, and the same brand (different flavor) of mis-analysis occurred last week when the shortwave came ashore (except it was too strong instead of too weak). That's the sort of thing that messed up the EC for that one run it showed the bomb. Like I said before, the shortwave should be well sampled at 12Z. what did the s/w come onshore as? the euro init it as an open h5 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sorry to ask.. but SW CT totals? 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We should know by 12z tomorrow what the truth is. The RUC init at least had a closed 534 contour near L.A. tonight, and every model was open with the wave at init. Tomorrow it will be very well sampled as it heads almost directly over Los Angeles and southern Cal. SO JM would that give us a better idea by 12z tomorrow or 0z tomorrow night with the new data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Its possible, and the same brand (different flavor) of mis-analysis occurred last week when the shortwave came ashore (except it was too strong instead of too weak). That's the sort of thing that messed up the EC for that one run it showed the bomb. Like I said before, the shortwave should be well sampled at 12Z. Ray, wth is the raob deal with the south Nevada air force base or whatever was there. They used to do RAOBs all the time except weekends/holidays but i haven't seen them do one in a long time. rrs upgrade or did they shut down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 by white plains .75-1 up the hudson to albany .5-.75 Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 this differs quite a bit from the map you made earlier today, no? yes...basically qpf was cut in half. also a tight gradient on the west side...almost like jan 2000ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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