tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 out to hr 12 closed h5 low over central arz...though its not as strongly closed off as 12z was at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On the level of December 1989 you think? That's my benchmark for disappointment lol. Not quite. The cold that December was extreme, and it did snow... just never a whole lot. The first 21 days of December 1989 ranks second coldest such stretch on record in Central Park. This year ranks 29. 1989 had 0.8" of snow in the same period, placing it as 55th least snowy. This year's 0.1" places it as 27th least snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 idk, i see your point, but something smells here. i mean, the euro is spitting out hecs's like it's goin out of style and yet none of the other guidance are doing so or have trended away from that idea. dont you find that odd? i do. if the pattern was so good, then i would think the other guidance would at least show something similar, at least as we get closer to the event. Well it's not like the 980 low on the GFS is really weak, it's just in the wrong place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Statistically there will likely be payment for it somewhere down the road... probably starting around the time I get back east I consider that period payment for the 70s, 80s and the 90s, when we only had a few good winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 18 looks pretty much the same, s/w may be a little stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I doubt I'll trust the Euro again this winter if it completely flips now and we get no storm or a very minor one, that combined with the major flip it did with the last storm. welcome to a la nina winter! models tend to suck in them! if it were last years setup, dont you think it would behave better? would you still not want to look at it then? i think not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not quite. The cold that December was extreme, and it did snow... just never a whole lot. The first 21 days of December 1989 ranks second coldest such stretch on record in Central Park. This year ranks 29. 1989 had 0.8" of snow in the same period, placing it as 55th least snowy. This year's 0.1" places it as 27th least snowy. And don't forget the November snow in 1989, that looked like we were going to have an epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 idk, i see your point, but something smells here. i mean, the euro is spitting out hecs's like it's goin out of style and yet none of the other guidance are doing so or have trended away from that idea. dont you find that odd? i do. if the pattern was so good, then i would think the other guidance would at least show something similar, at least as we get closer to the event. Well up until the most recent runs, the GFS and UKMET were showing a similar intensity storm, just a bit further east/later phase than the Euro. So it's not like other models didn't see the potential w/ the intensity, but yeah your point definitely concerns me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll say this, if the Euro jumps ship, i'll be ordering a coffin from cosco, and have it sent express! haha Get a tablet saying "The king is dead! Long live the king!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 welcome to a la nina winter! models tend to suck in them! if it were last years setup, dont you think it would behave better? would you still not want to look at it then? i think not. Definitely true! Look at the 3 biggest forecast busts of this decade: Mar 5 2001, Jan 25 2000, and Jan 14, 2008 ALL La Nina winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 24 still no real noticeable differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not quite. The cold that December was extreme, and it did snow... just never a whole lot. The first 21 days of December 1989 ranks second coldest such stretch on record in Central Park. This year ranks 29. 1989 had 0.8" of snow in the same period, placing it as 55th least snowy. This year's 0.1" places it as 27th least snowy. Didnt DC get much more snow that month than us? Two epic forecasting busts in Dec 89-- one ended up being a virga storm for us (I suppose DC cashed in on that) and the other one had the secondary develop too close to the coast and the snow flipped over to rain right after it started. Both were supposed to deliver 6-12 inches here-- got nada lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 idk, i see your point, but something smells here. i mean, the euro is spitting out hecs's like it's goin out of style and yet none of the other guidance are doing so or have trended away from that idea. dont you find that odd? i do. if the pattern was so good, then i would think the other guidance would at least show something similar, at least as we get closer to the event. I think that the GFS is pretty similar right now other than some small details, and it has some biases of its own in terms of sending energy out too fast and overemphasizing the front piece of energy, in turn causing the whole trough to shear out. The GGEM tonight is crap if it really did destroy the southern energy by hour 48. Without a doubt, the overall blocky pattern is saving us. Without that, there would almost certainly either be a cutter or an OTS solution. That's what's at least giving us a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Definitely true! Look at the 3 biggest forecast busts of this decade: Mar 5 2001, Jan 25 2000, and Jan 14, 2008 ALL La Nina winters! I don't think I'd put Jan 14 2008 on par with the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 through hr 30, no real change in the s/w...confluence in the northeast is slackened up...the northern stream is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Definitely true! Look at the 3 biggest forecast busts of this decade: Mar 5 2001, Jan 25 2000, and Jan 14, 2008 ALL La Nina winters! and dont forget Feb 89 also. On the plus side we have 66-67, 95-96 and even 05-06.... all of which had major snowstorms that were forecasted well in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well it's not like the 980 low on the GFS is really weak, it's just in the wrong place. well, i know the other guidance weren't weak, i didnt mean that, i was talking hecs, which the euro has had. i dont count a snowstorm over the ocean to count. only the ones that are over land. who cares about a fish storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 welcome to a la nina winter! models tend to suck in them! if it were last years setup, dont you think it would behave better? would you still not want to look at it then? i think not. Aren't Ninos chaotic also? I remember the 12/19 storm last year being lost, found, amplified, suppressed numerous times, and also the 2/25 storm having supposed to be an out to sea weak low several days prior becoming the monster that dumped 21" of plaster at Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 and dont forget Feb 89 also. On the plus side we have 66-67, 95-96 and even 05-06.... all of which had major snowstorms that were forecasted well in advance. I did say this decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 36 h5 is just about closed off over northern tx...northern strea diving down quicker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 well, i know the other guidance weren't weak, i didnt mean that, i was talking hecs, which the euro has had. i dont count a snowstorm over the ocean to count. only the ones that are over land. who cares about a fish storm? My point is if the GFS showed the storm further West, it would probably be a MECS/HECS too, it's not like it shows a 1005 low somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Aren't Ninos chaotic also? I remember the 12/19 storm last year being lost, found, amplified, suppressed numerous times, and also the 2/25 storm having supposed to be an out to sea weak low several days prior becoming the monster that dumped 21" of plaster at Central Park. Models, especially the GFS, will vary from run to run, sometimes wildly. But usually in Ninos, when you get within 96 hours, you can have a pretty good idea what is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't think I'd put Jan 14 2008 on par with the others. I was so close to postponing going back to Penn State to stay home on Long Island for that one. Models up to about a day prior were very aggressive with it and suggested a possible second 12/30/00 at worst. Thank goodness I decided to head back anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 42 has a closed h5 low just east of whichita falls...its not as closed off as 12z, but its closed off...northern stream continues to really dive down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My point is if the GFS showed the storm further West, it would probably be a MECS/HECS too, it's not like it shows a 1005 low somewhere. ok, who cares at this point. lets not clutter this up. just let tom spit out the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the speed is exactly the same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Models, especially the GFS, will vary from run to run, sometimes wildly. But usually in Ninos, when you get within 96 hours, you can have a pretty good idea what is going to happen. I guess it makes sense, since a lot of Nino storms are greatly aided by the amount of moist Pacific/Gulf flow available to them, and not as reliant on precise S/W phasing and such like Ninas are. But still, last winter had some very crazy model swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The GFS is preparing to meet its maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 48 closed h5 low over just east of dallas, again not as strongly closed as 12z...northern stream conintues to dive in hard. hgts along the east coast are higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 54 closed low bout 75 miles south of dallas....sub 1016 low over houston..hvy precip in eastern tx...lgt precip along the miss river from wis to la Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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