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NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential Part 3


earthlight

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On the level of December 1989 you think? That's my benchmark for disappointment lol.

Not quite. The cold that December was extreme, and it did snow... just never a whole lot.

The first 21 days of December 1989 ranks second coldest such stretch on record in Central Park. This year ranks 29.

1989 had 0.8" of snow in the same period, placing it as 55th least snowy. This year's 0.1" places it as 27th least snowy.

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idk, i see your point, but something smells here. i mean, the euro is spitting out hecs's like it's goin out of style and yet none of the other guidance are doing so or have trended away from that idea. dont you find that odd? i do. if the pattern was so good, then i would think the other guidance would at least show something similar, at least as we get closer to the event.

Well it's not like the 980 low on the GFS is really weak, it's just in the wrong place.

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I doubt I'll trust the Euro again this winter if it completely flips now and we get no storm or a very minor one, that combined with the major flip it did with the last storm.

welcome to a la nina winter! models tend to suck in them! if it were last years setup, dont you think it would behave better? would you still not want to look at it then? i think not.

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Not quite. The cold that December was extreme, and it did snow... just never a whole lot.

The first 21 days of December 1989 ranks second coldest such stretch on record in Central Park. This year ranks 29.

1989 had 0.8" of snow in the same period, placing it as 55th least snowy. This year's 0.1" places it as 27th least snowy.

And don't forget the November snow in 1989, that looked like we were going to have an epic winter.

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idk, i see your point, but something smells here. i mean, the euro is spitting out hecs's like it's goin out of style and yet none of the other guidance are doing so or have trended away from that idea. dont you find that odd? i do. if the pattern was so good, then i would think the other guidance would at least show something similar, at least as we get closer to the event.

Well up until the most recent runs, the GFS and UKMET were showing a similar intensity storm, just a bit further east/later phase than the Euro. So it's not like other models didn't see the potential w/ the intensity, but yeah your point definitely concerns me a bit.

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welcome to a la nina winter! models tend to suck in them! if it were last years setup, dont you think it would behave better? would you still not want to look at it then? i think not.

Definitely true! Look at the 3 biggest forecast busts of this decade: Mar 5 2001, Jan 25 2000, and Jan 14, 2008

ALL La Nina winters!

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Not quite. The cold that December was extreme, and it did snow... just never a whole lot.

The first 21 days of December 1989 ranks second coldest such stretch on record in Central Park. This year ranks 29.

1989 had 0.8" of snow in the same period, placing it as 55th least snowy. This year's 0.1" places it as 27th least snowy.

Didnt DC get much more snow that month than us?

Two epic forecasting busts in Dec 89-- one ended up being a virga storm for us (I suppose DC cashed in on that) and the other one had the secondary develop too close to the coast and the snow flipped over to rain right after it started. Both were supposed to deliver 6-12 inches here-- got nada lol.

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idk, i see your point, but something smells here. i mean, the euro is spitting out hecs's like it's goin out of style and yet none of the other guidance are doing so or have trended away from that idea. dont you find that odd? i do. if the pattern was so good, then i would think the other guidance would at least show something similar, at least as we get closer to the event.

I think that the GFS is pretty similar right now other than some small details, and it has some biases of its own in terms of sending energy out too fast and overemphasizing the front piece of energy, in turn causing the whole trough to shear out. The GGEM tonight is crap if it really did destroy the southern energy by hour 48.

Without a doubt, the overall blocky pattern is saving us. Without that, there would almost certainly either be a cutter or an OTS solution. That's what's at least giving us a shot.

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Definitely true! Look at the 3 biggest forecast busts of this decade: Mar 5 2001, Jan 25 2000, and Jan 14, 2008

ALL La Nina winters!

and dont forget Feb 89 also.

On the plus side we have 66-67, 95-96 and even 05-06.... all of which had major snowstorms that were forecasted well in advance.

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Well it's not like the 980 low on the GFS is really weak, it's just in the wrong place.

well, i know the other guidance weren't weak, i didnt mean that, i was talking hecs, which the euro has had. i dont count a snowstorm over the ocean to count. only the ones that are over land. who cares about a fish storm?

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welcome to a la nina winter! models tend to suck in them! if it were last years setup, dont you think it would behave better? would you still not want to look at it then? i think not.

Aren't Ninos chaotic also? I remember the 12/19 storm last year being lost, found, amplified, suppressed numerous times, and also the 2/25 storm having supposed to be an out to sea weak low several days prior becoming the monster that dumped 21" of plaster at Central Park.

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well, i know the other guidance weren't weak, i didnt mean that, i was talking hecs, which the euro has had. i dont count a snowstorm over the ocean to count. only the ones that are over land. who cares about a fish storm?

My point is if the GFS showed the storm further West, it would probably be a MECS/HECS too, it's not like it shows a 1005 low somewhere.

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Aren't Ninos chaotic also? I remember the 12/19 storm last year being lost, found, amplified, suppressed numerous times, and also the 2/25 storm having supposed to be an out to sea weak low several days prior becoming the monster that dumped 21" of plaster at Central Park.

Models, especially the GFS, will vary from run to run, sometimes wildly. But usually in Ninos, when you get within 96 hours, you can have a pretty good idea what is going to happen.

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Models, especially the GFS, will vary from run to run, sometimes wildly. But usually in Ninos, when you get within 96 hours, you can have a pretty good idea what is going to happen.

I guess it makes sense, since a lot of Nino storms are greatly aided by the amount of moist Pacific/Gulf flow available to them, and not as reliant on precise S/W phasing and such like Ninas are. But still, last winter had some very crazy model swings.

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