Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I really wanted to post what you just did and screw it, I do feel the euro will be flatter, especially tomorrows 12z run once this s/w is really on shore. but i held back cause the mods dont want us talking about future models before they come out. if they wanna delete this then fine, but i wanted to respond to your post. I posted last night in the 00z thread of the main forum that we need to get to 84 hrs on this. with different physics packages for each model, AND the s/w trof was still not sampled 00z last night, we SHOULD expect a wide array of solutions. Once your at 3.5 days and the models trend and the s/w trofs are sampled, it's not going to change much, unless the PV has something to say about it. You might be right, but it's just a bit funny to me that everyone has expected the EURO to change for the last two days and it hasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I see no reason to conclude that tonight's GGEM run is not viable, other than the relative lack of continuity. But it's not like the upper level evolution is that dissimilar to its 12z or even the GFS 12s run. Subtle differences clearly ruin the surface features. Remember also that the GGEMs ensembles have been very suppressed, as have most of the GEFS before 0z, so an operational run like this should not be such a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I really wanted to post what you just did and screw it, I do feel the euro will be flatter, especially tomorrows 12z run once this s/w is really on shore. but i held back cause the mods dont want us talking about future models before they come out. if they wanna delete this then fine, but i wanted to respond to your post. I posted last night in the 00z thread of the main forum that we need to get to 84 hrs on this. with different physics packages for each model, AND the s/w trof was still not sampled 00z last night, we SHOULD expect a wide array of solutions. Once your at 3.5 days and the models trend and the s/w trofs are sampled, it's not going to change much, unless the PV has something to say about it. I think the positioning of the ridge/trough tells it all...the trough axis on the East Coast is too far east on the models to be conducive to a major storm for most areas....it COULD occur with the setup shown but as I posted in the other forum we're going to need a sick left handed hook once the low forms and those are very very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 this clearly in the longest week in the history of our 4 billion year old planet. ooofah. are any of those models any good within 72 hours anyway? ...or 54 hours, for that matter? until the king lays an egg, i'm gung-ho. scared, but gung ho. Ive actually seen a few people say that if this doesnt work out, they hope the nao goes positive and releases us from any future "threats" from this winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I will say this: IF the EURO stays with its current solution and we get a blizzard, the EURO is the king BY FAR! IF the EURO stays with its solution and the GFS is right, my confidence in the EURO will lower drastically! BIG test for the EURO right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think the positioning of the ridge/trough tells it all...the trough axis on the East Coast is too far east on the models to be conducive to a major storm for most areas....it COULD occur with the setup shown but as I posted in the other forum we're going to need a sick left handed hook once the low forms and those are very very rare. Well put. And certainly rare on the east coast at relatively low latitudes, though maybe not in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You might be right, but it's just a bit funny to me that everyone has expected the EURO to change for the last two days and it hasn't. i just have a hard time agreeing with the euro given its slow bias which perfectly times a phase that is nearly impossible because it generates a hecs. if the model had no such bias, i would say, yea, it's more believeable but the facts speak for themselves. and is still is outside of the envelope of a lock. 12z tomorrow is game time. if the euro holds serve, i dont see any reason why it deviates from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i just have a hard time agreeing with the euro given its slow bias which perfectly times a phase that is nearly impossible because it generates a hecs. if the model had no such bias, i would say, yea, it's more believeable but the facts speak for themselves. and is still is outside of the envelope of a lock. 12z tomorrow is game time. if the euro holds serve, i dont see any reason why it deviates from there. You're right that it DOES have a slow bias! But that said, it's hard to not give confidence to a model that has been SO good time and time again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I will say this: IF the EURO stays with its current solution and we get a blizzard, the EURO is the king BY FAR! IF the EURO stays with its solution and the GFS is right, my confidence in the EURO will lower drastically! BIG test for the EURO right now! Don't know if I'd go to that extreme, but the Euro will certainly make up for last week's tease if this storm happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ive actually seen a few people say that if this doesnt work out, they hope the nao goes positive and releases us from any future "threats" from this winter lol. It looks like the pattern breaks for a week or so after this but I'm thinking we're going to go right back into it in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It looks like the pattern breaks for a week or so after this but I'm thinking we're going to go right back into it in early January. That wouldn't be out of the realm of normalcy for a pattern to change before it reloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ive actually seen a few people say that if this doesnt work out, they hope the nao goes positive and releases us from any future "threats" from this winter lol. I'll say that I'm among those people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll say that I'm among those people That's just b/c you don't want the aggravation of booking and cancelling another flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll say that I'm among those people You don't have much vested interest in it anyway. And besides, a bad pattern for the East is often a snowy pattern for Elko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 well if this doesn't work out..December at least has been a complete disaster..but we have 3 winter months to go..so think positive Almost epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i just have a hard time agreeing with the euro given its slow bias which perfectly times a phase that is nearly impossible because it generates a hecs. if the model had no such bias, i would say, yea, it's more believeable but the facts speak for themselves. and is still is outside of the envelope of a lock. 12z tomorrow is game time. if the euro holds serve, i dont see any reason why it deviates from there. I personally think it's harder to believe that the slow bias is present after 6 consecutive runs with virtually the same solution by the Euro. I guess we'll just have to see how 00z plays out at this point, we've all basically said how we think things will unfold with the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You're right that it DOES have a slow bias! But that said, it's hard to not give confidence to a model that has been SO good time and time again! how about this... we've had more 10"+ snowfalls in the last 10 years than the 30 years prior to that. maybe we're in an era where it just wants to snow in big ways.... strong la ninas or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That's just b/c you don't want the aggravation of booking and cancelling another flight. At least I got my money back, hopefully if it happens again, I can do that again too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll say that I'm among those people I have to concur lol-- there'll be other winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Who's pumped for the next euro?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I will say this: IF the EURO stays with its current solution and we get a blizzard, the EURO is the king BY FAR! IF the EURO stays with its solution and the GFS is right, my confidence in the EURO will lower drastically! BIG test for the EURO right now! I doubt I'll trust the Euro again this winter if it completely flips now and we get no storm or a very minor one, that combined with the major flip it did with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Almost epic. On the level of December 1989 you think? That's my benchmark for disappointment lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 how about this... we've had more 10"+ snowfalls in the last 10 years than the 30 years prior to that. maybe we're in an era where it just wants to snow in big ways.... strong la ninas or not. That does tend to happen in cycles historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the euro has just started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I doubt I'll trust the Euro again this winter if it completely flips now and we get no storm or a very minor one, that combined with the major flip it did with the last storm. I don't know if I would completely distrust it, but it would move down on par with the GFS on my list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 how about this... we've had more 10"+ snowfalls in the last 10 years than the 30 years prior to that. maybe we're in an era where it just wants to snow in big ways.... strong la ninas or not. Statistically there will likely be payment for it somewhere down the road... probably starting around the time I get back east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll say this, if the Euro jumps ship, i'll be ordering a coffin from cosco, and have it sent express! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the euro has just started Thanks again for doing this, tombo. I wanted to, and should be going to bed right now, but I have to see this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll say that I'm among those people I am too!! I'd rather have a mild winter where at least we're not faced with false snow threats than a cold winter where we have a fake, hair-pulling threat every week that never pans out due to it becoming a cutter, getting sheared out, or whatnot. I hate just plain cold with no snow. Unfortunately Ninas are famous for cutting a storm to the Lakes and then driving down a frigid airmass just as the rain ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I personally think it's harder to believe that the slow bias is present after 6 consecutive runs with virtually the same solution by the Euro. I guess we'll just have to see how 00z plays out at this point, we've all basically said how we think things will unfold with the run. idk, i see your point, but something smells here. i mean, the euro is spitting out hecs's like it's goin out of style and yet none of the other guidance are doing so or have trended away from that idea. dont you find that odd? i do. if the pattern was so good, then i would think the other guidance would at least show something similar, at least as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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