NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential Part 3

[ARyan]

That's all I can say after everyone's reaction from the 00z runs.

[jm1220]

hr 108 of the gfs ens

That actually looks wetter than the OP and more aggressive. There must still be some wrapped up solutions bringing a major storm to the coast.

[tombo82685]

god help this thread if the euro loses this storm...randy may have 500 ppl on the 5 limit post...people seriously need to just except if it snows it snows....

[Isotherm]

No one should be panicking at this juncture. We're entering that crucial D3-4 time frame when all the important changes usually occur, sometimes for the better, sometimes worse. The southern short wave is just beginning to get better sampled, so the latest 00z runs may be picking up on some important information. However, with the inconsistencies of the GGEM, GFS, and UKIE compared to the ECMWF over the past few days, I suspect the latter will be more right than wrong. The Euro has been setting the trends over the past 24 hours, when the GFS had depicted a low scooting NE toward Bermuda. The 00z GFS is world's better than the 00z GFS last night.

[Dark Energy]

yea 18z was about the same...but ray i wonder if there are a couple heavy hitters in there that are really skewing it.

but hasnt that been the case for a while? I recall several runs of the gfs ens that had at least 3 or 4 big hits while the rest were east. it's probably still doing the same thing.

[eduggs]

DT just said..reason GGEM is way out to sea is because it lost the sw between 36-48 hrs..He said it's a error

Stupid butterfingers model. Hold onto the fcking ball next time, would ya!?

[jasonli18t]

"Still look decent?" I think they look fantastic.

I agree i just try and stay away from big (in magnitude) words . These threads are filled with the biggest of words and it gets tiring. worst, best, strongest, weakest, amazing, incredible, awesome, etc.

[jm1220]

This might be the first time the GFS Ensemble mean looks better than the OP, or am I mistaken?

Might also be a red flag that the OP run is too weak with the storm. You're right, I can't remember a recent occasion where the ENS mean was more aggressive than the OP. They should be weaker if anything because of their lower resolution.

[goombatommy]

The EURO comes out around 12:50am EST correct?

[tombo82685]

but hasnt that been the case for a while? I recall several runs of the gfs ens that had at least 3 or 4 big hits while the rest were east. it's probably still doing the same thing.

thats what im saying. Thats whats pulling the precip like that on the ens mean imho.

[baroclinic_instability]

No one should be panicking at this juncture. We're entering that crucial D3-4 time frame when all the important changes usually occur, sometimes for the better, sometimes worse. The southern short wave is just beginning to get better sampled, so the latest 00z runs may be picking up on some important information. However, with the inconsistencies of the GGEM, GFS, and UKIE compared to the ECMWF over the past few days, I suspect the latter will be more right than wrong. The Euro has been setting the trends over the past 24 hours, when the GFS had depicted a low scooting NE toward Bermuda. The 00z GFS is world's better than the 00z GFS last night.

Yeah agreed, I am not panicking at all. This Euro run will be more interesting than any other because of the latest "trends", true or not.

[SACRUS]

No one should be panicking at this juncture. We're entering that crucial D3-4 time frame when all the important changes usually occur, sometimes for the better, sometimes worse. The southern short wave is just beginning to get better sampled, so the latest 00z runs may be picking up on some important information. However, with the inconsistencies of the GGEM, GFS, and UKIE compared to the ECMWF over the past few days, I suspect the latter will be more right than wrong. The Euro has been setting the trends over the past 24 hours, when the GFS had depicted a low scooting NE toward Bermuda. The 00z GFS is world's better than the 00z GFS last night.

I agree but it is alarming not to have the ggem or gfs showing a hit for 2 days now. The gfs ensembles are positive as is the gfs still just a near miss. The nam was a mixed bag.. the ggem was garbage - i havent seen the ukmet? All in all not bad

[eduggs]

but hasnt that been the case for a while? I recall several runs of the gfs ens that had at least 3 or 4 big hits while the rest were east. it's probably still doing the same thing.

Been following the members closely. We haven't had big hits for at least 2.5 days. Last 24-36 hours have been pretty ugly for the ensembles. This is the first cycle that appears to include more than 1 or 2 glancing blows.

[jm1220]

No one should be panicking at this juncture. We're entering that crucial D3-4 time frame when all the important changes usually occur, sometimes for the better, sometimes worse. The southern short wave is just beginning to get better sampled, so the latest 00z runs may be picking up on some important information. However, with the inconsistencies of the GGEM, GFS, and UKIE compared to the ECMWF over the past few days, I suspect the latter will be more right than wrong. The Euro has been setting the trends over the past 24 hours, when the GFS had depicted a low scooting NE toward Bermuda. The 00z GFS is world's better than the 00z GFS last night.

I definitely agree. I thought last night that the next day or so (meaning today/tonight) would be the time to expect major model fluctuations, and tomorrow was really the crucial day because the proper pieces to the puzzle would be well sampled. If anything, the Euro has been far more consistent than the other globals, which have been flopping all over the place. It has to mean something in my opinion more than just its slow bias. If the Euro holds on and the other models head back to a phased bomb near the Delmarva, I will start honking like crazy tomorrow night because the Euro's depiction is almost certainly a top 5 storm in the last 50 years for the NYC area/NJ/Long Island.

[BL03]

I guess now's when we're seeing the inevitable model swings WRT this event. We just really have to hope the Euro holds serve and doesn't shear the system out like the other models seem to want to do tonight. If it does and has the 6th straight megabomb solution, I have to believe it's really onto something and maybe the others are having a fluke run. If the Euro caves, and doesn't recover at 12z tomorrow, then IMO we're in big trouble if anyone wants anything more than a garden variety event, and even then for the immediate coast since by then, there should be plenty of data available to make a good decision.

yea the euro is the only model that has been consistent while the others have had different things going on in the upper air set-up wrt the phase/speed with s/w's /etc. The 00z tonight have seemed a little lost imo or more unsure so far, if that makes sense. Take the GFS for example, h5 set-up would argue for more of a NW position of the slp low and therefore a mod snowstorm for I-95. My fear for a few days now and since last weekends miss is that la nina is gonna speed the southern s/w and miss the phase for us, but with the intense blocking in E CAN and the ridge in W US this has a shot, we all know euro thinks so. And then there is the Euro bias of slowing energy down in the SW US.... well for many runs in a row it hasn't changed it's idea so maybe it has the perfect read on this... now that the s/w is making it's way to the SW US... its a big test for the Euro and the faith of this board.

[Dark Energy]

Been following the members closely. We haven't had big hits for at least 2.5 days. Last 24-36 hours have been pretty ugly for the ensembles. This is the first cycle that appears to include more than 1 or 2 glancing blows.

there were 2 big hits on last nights 00z run, zero on the 6z run, 2 on the 12z run, and i think one on the 18z run.

now, tnts ens mean is wetter than any of the latter so it HAS to have more than any of those said hits from the last 4 cycles to be that wet on the 00z ens mean.

[Dark Energy]

why isn't anyone talking about the northern stream system and how crappy it is being sampled? you ever see how many RAOBs they have in Canada? yeesh. not even close to the sampling that the southern stream s/w trof is having/will get tnt and 12z tomorrow. There still may be some phasing of the PV but it may not show up for a bit. still not over yet.

[WishIwas]

I am trying not to get to hyped up about this storm don't want it to be Like last weekend it was a bust. Our news channels here don't seem concerned @ all. Too soon to call. I heard more OTC comments on the 10 & 11 news tonight then in the past day or so.

[Isotherm]

I agree but it is alarming not to have the ggem or gfs showing a hit for 2 days now. The gfs ensembles are positive as is the gfs still just a near miss. The nam was a mixed bag.. the ggem was garbage - i havent seen the ukmet? All in all not bad

By the sounds of it the GGEM may have been a fluke run, but in terms of the GFS it's basically very close to a good hit. Can't expect the euro and gfs to be identical at this stage in the game, so I don't think the 00z GFS was that bad at all. If it's still Euro versus the world tomorrow night, then we might be in trouble.

[SnowGoose69]

why isn't anyone talking about the northern stream system and how crappy it is being sampled? you ever see how many RAOBs they have in Canada? yeesh. not even close to the sampling that the southern stream s/w trof is having/will get tnt and 12z tomorrow. There still may be some phasing of the PV but it may not show up for a bit. still not over yet.

I posted in the main forum that my hope is that is the one thing that could still save us but honestly, most of the time when you see some sort of change or consensus when the main s/w comes ashore rarely if ever do you see the models go back to what they had before or change much.

[jm1220]

By the sounds of it the GGEM may have been a fluke run, but in terms of the GFS it's basically very close to a good hit. Can't expect the euro and gfs to be identical at this stage in the game, so I don't think the 00z GFS was that bad at all. If it's still Euro versus the world tomorrow night, then we might be in trouble.

If it just completely loses the southern stream energy that other models close off, then yeah, the run is garbage.

[eduggs]

there were 2 big hits on last nights 00z run, zero on the 6z run, 2 on the 12z run, and i think one on the 18z run.

now, tnts ens mean is wetter than any of the latter so it HAS to have more than any of those said hits from the last 4 cycles to be that wet on the 00z ens mean.

Yeah, you're right. I just went back and checked - esp 12z - and there were 2 solid hits like you say and maybe 1 or 2 lighter impacts. But the .1 and .25 cumulative isopleths still did not extend very far northwest.

[Isotherm]

why isn't anyone talking about the northern stream system and how crappy it is being sampled? you ever see how many RAOBs they have in Canada? yeesh. not even close to the sampling that the southern stream s/w trof is having/will get tnt and 12z tomorrow. There still may be some phasing of the PV but it may not show up for a bit. still not over yet.

Good point, we had a discussion about this a couple days ago but it needed to be brought up again. The northern stream will likely have more run to run variations than the southern wave at least for the next 24-48 hours due to the sparse sampling you referrenced.

[Isotherm]

If it just completely loses the southern stream energy that other models close off, then yeah, the run is garbage.

I'm not too familiar with the GGEM's verification statistics but I know it's worse than the Euro, UKIE, and the GFS. So tonight's off run doesn't concern me at this point.

[eduggs]

If it just completely loses the southern stream energy that other models close off, then yeah, the run is garbage.

It is not the only model to do that over the past day or two. Some just don't pay close attention. Notice on the 12z GFS how the southern stream s/w dampens and disappears in the gulf of mexico. The GFS still manages an impressive trof and resulting nor'easter that nearly crushes everyone... all this with the northern stream COMPLETELY DOMINANT.

[SnowGoose69]

I'm not too familiar with the GGEM's verification statistics but I know it's worse than the Euro, UKIE, and the GFS. So tonight's off run doesn't concern me at this point.

The GEM has overall been consistent with a miss as it was last week (though it was close on most of its misses) ....the one positive we can take is the GEM wound up well to suppressed in the end on most of its runs for the previous event, if it is again too suppressed this time around then a shift 100-150 miles west obviously puts us in business.

[green tube]

I agree but it is alarming not to have the ggem or gfs showing a hit for 2 days now. The gfs ensembles are positive as is the gfs still just a near miss. The nam was a mixed bag.. the ggem was garbage - i havent seen the ukmet? All in all not bad

this clearly in the longest week in the history of our 4 billion year old planet. ooofah.

are any of those models any good within 72 hours anyway? ...or 54 hours, for that matter?

until the king lays an egg, i'm gung-ho. scared, but gung ho.

[Dark Energy]

I posted in the main forum that my hope is that is the one thing that could still save us but honestly, most of the time when you see some sort of change or consensus when the main s/w comes ashore rarely if ever do you see the models go back to what they had before or change much.

I really wanted to post what you just did and screw it, I do feel the euro will be flatter, especially tomorrows 12z run once this s/w is really on shore. but i held back cause the mods dont want us talking about future models before they come out. if they wanna delete this then fine, but i wanted to respond to your post. I posted last night in the 00z thread of the main forum that we need to get to 84 hrs on this. with different physics packages for each model, AND the s/w trof was still not sampled 00z last night, we SHOULD expect a wide array of solutions. Once your at 3.5 days and the models trend and the s/w trofs are sampled, it's not going to change much, unless the PV has something to say about it.

[SACRUS]

The GEM has overall been consistent with a miss as it was last week (though it was close on most of its misses) ....the one positive we can take is the GEM wound up well to suppressed in the end on most of its runs for the previous event, if it is again too suppressed this time around then a shift 100-150 miles west obviously puts us in business.

Tonights ggem would need 300 or more miles. The ggem has been consistent aside from 2 or 3 runs, for a miss

[A-L-E-X]

When did the s/w come onshore and did the GFS incorporate that latest sampling data into the 0z run?