weatherweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 uk looks funkie closed off at 500 and that weak surface low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The ggem at hr 60 has the low in tx......at hr 60 on the 00z gfs its in southern AL Also has slowed down since its own 12 z run. Was in La on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 heres the hr 72 ggem, trof is broader not as amped in my eyes compared to 12z, it does have more northern stream diving down...its may be a solution like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GGEM at 72 does not look good Agreed, the northern stream doesn't dig enough so it has trouble phasing. At least to my eyes on those terrible maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wasn't the northern stream energy more potent on the 0z GFS? If you combine the slower southern stream s/w on the GGEM with the northern stream energy of the GFS, you'd probably get something similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What is causing the difference between the sharpness of euro trough and broadness of gfs/nam/ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z gfs ens track looks to be like the op but there is a ton of sprea, in terms of looking at qpf its a lot wetter than the 18z. Tells me there are probably some juicy indiv ens thrown in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I guess now's when we're seeing the inevitable model swings WRT this event. We just really have to hope the Euro holds serve and doesn't shear the system out like the other models seem to want to do tonight. If it does and has the 6th straight megabomb solution, I have to believe it's really onto something and maybe the others are having a fluke run. If the Euro caves, and doesn't recover at 12z tomorrow, then IMO we're in big trouble if anyone wants anything more than a garden variety event, and even then for the immediate coast since by then, there should be plenty of data available to make a good decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 here http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_084.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 gfs ens at hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Is it me, or does the GGEM look like it might miss the phase? I've been getting a little confused by everyone loosely throwing around the term "phase." To my mind, however you want to identify them - probably polar and subtropical - the jet streams are in phase on all guidance by around hr 60. So I don't believe that "phasing" jet streams makes or breaks our storm. Instead I believe it's more simply the evolution of the flow orientation at all levels, but especially above 500mb or so. And this is greatly influenced by the movement and timing of small perturbations in the phased flow (shortwaves) and their associated vorticity pockets. For comparison, split flow is clearly evident at 12hr. But by hour 48 and especially in the later panels, the two main streams are united in the eastern trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 gfs ens hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Apparently some didn't hear my request from earlier. Stop making model projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 gfs ens hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GGEM way out at sea 96+ hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 108 of the gfs ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Only one met is saying that and the others disagree. Yeah I was that one met, and that was brutal. I hope you guys are nicer over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The GFS means looks west of it's OP by a tad. There is probably a large spread in the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS ensembles still look like a decent hit for coastal locations. And it implies some of the individual members are probably some pretty major hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Damn Tombo, that's the closest we've been to the 0.25-0.5" on the ensembles for an individual frame. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 One negative trend I see is the faster solution. Faster simply because the PV never detaches from the northern branch. This keeps the PV farther N and the system won't blow up once it ejects over the Gulf Stream since it will lack the GOM moisture. Very interested to see the EURO and if it holds to its original thoughts. I have a feeling it will change a bit though. Still a lot to happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah I was that one met, and that was brutal. I hope you guys are nicer over here. lol i told you man, you flicked a match into a pile of dry hay thats ready to combust lol....hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The GFS means looks west of it's OP by a tad. There is probably a large spread in the ensembles. Just looking at H5, there isn't. I'm surprised the surface looks like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 gfs ens hr 84 That's a good looking ensemble mean chart for 3.5 days. The mean is further north, stronger, and wetter on the westward side than 12z. Like you said it should contain some good hits, which has to be good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This might be the first time the GFS Ensemble mean looks better than the OP, or am I mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 DT just said..reason GGEM is way out to sea is because it lost the sw between 36-48 hrs..He said it's a error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 gfs ens hr 96 Wow! I would be quite happy with that as the actual operational 24 hour surface chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 One negative trend I see is the faster solution. Faster simply because the PV never detaches from the northern branch. This keeps the PV farther N and the system won't blow up once it ejects over the Gulf Stream since it will lack the GOM moisture. Very interested to see the EURO and if it holds to its original thoughts. I have a feeling it will change a bit though. Still a lot to happen though. i have had that feeling for the past 3 runs with these extreme cases but it hold it sticks to its guns... it all comes down to the speed...slower we are game..faster it goes to the gfs and nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This might be the first time the GFS Ensemble mean looks better than the OP, or am I mistaken? yea 18z was about the same as the 18z op...but ray i wonder if there are a couple heavy hitters in there that are really skewing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 GFS ensembles still look like a decent hit for coastal locations. And it implies some of the individual members are probably some pretty major hits. "Still look decent?" I think they look fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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