ARyan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 To think a little positively (to possibly all our detriments ), those who point out the shortwave isn't completely onshore are correct. It will be better sampled for the 12Z run. If we don't start to see good trends in the GFS by then, I think we might be in trouble... Didn't we have all those awesome runs with the half sampled s/w with the last storm and then everything flipped once the s/w was fully sampled? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 To think a little positively (to possibly all our detriments ), those who point out the shortwave isn't completely onshore are correct. It will be better sampled for the 12Z run. If we don't start to see good trends in the GFS by then, I think we might be in trouble... yeah if I had to put money on when the money shift will be, its 12z tommorow...if we are sitting here tommorow nite with all the same players holding all the same cards...the game ain't over but like they say if you are at the table trying to guess who the sucker is, the sucker is you. Wish they could do some extra sampling up north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sort of OT but I would like to point out, these 0z runs are not do or die, not with this setup. Even if Euro shys away from a coastal solution, although it would decrease the chance of it happening, does not take it off the table. As many people have mentioned we are dealing a with a fragile phase where small changes early on can amount to enormous differences later in the run. So remember either way its not over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Oh sure, there are still significant differences between the two models, but, synoptically, I didn't see anything other than speed diffs between 12z and 0z in the GFS. Did you, since I'm watching the football game too and I wasn't looking at every minute detail? Minor things. Slight shift west in the ridge, and phasing maybe slightly earlier. I still say this surface low is about 25-50 miles too far east based on what is going on at H5. A ton of PVA going on right along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is Per Meteorologist Jeff Berardeli From the Tri- state Weather Forums On the latest GFS run..BTW First post at American posted a handful of times over at Eastern.. Weather Warrior Posts: 365 (12/22/10 11:16 PM) Meteorologist Reply Quote MoreMy Recent Posts Guys this is a much better run for you... don't pay attention to surface low. 500mb pattern is all that is important. and this run has a very good 500mb pattern and vorticity advection... judging by the 500mb low/ vort advec the surface low should be about 100 miles further west than depicted. just move the precip shield about 100 miles west and that is the reality of this model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like there's lots of energy to be had that will eventually spin up a major storm, and SE NE gets blasted on this run pretty good, but it won't do us any good if the storm stays sheared out until it's already past our longitude. Hopefully the Euro holds firm in terms of its timing of this southern feature, I think that if it phases near the timeframe and location the Euro has, we should be awesome. We might even have a little wiggle room in that regard since the snow gets well west into PA on the last few Euro runs. I also think it has to be more than just the Euro hold-back-energy bias at play since it's had the SAME outcome for 5 runs now. The GFS often has a too quick/overemphasize front side energy bias as well, so I'm not that worried yet. Well said, agreed. I made a similar post earlier this evening about the euro's biases but the likelihood of them being in play right now is pretty low considering we've seen 6-7 consecutive runs with about the same solution. The GFS has certainly been more erratic w/ run to run inconsistency, and I suspect you're correct wrt rushing the phase out front rather than consolidating the vort energy into a more distinct/developed s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 00Z GFS is slower with s/w at 48 hours by a tad compared to the NAM, that is a HUGE red flag that the NAM is probably a bit too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I still say this surface low is about 25-50 miles too far east based on what is going on at H5. A ton of PVA going on right along the coast. Yeah, I can buy that with where the diffluence is aloft. Looks like there are the usual convective issues, judging by the vort. I don't really get the bridge jumping over the sfc low position and QPF fields this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, I can buy that with where the diffluence is aloft. Looks like there are the usual convective issues, judging by the vort. I don't really get the bridge jumping over the sfc low position and QPF fields this far out. I think there is concern over the NAM and GFS accelerating the shortwave now that it is making landfall, and wondering if the Euro does the same, and thus comes in east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't really get the bridge jumping over the sfc low position and QPF fields this far out. +1 The fact is, had the GFS shown a massive hit, folks would be saying things like "there is no way this holds serve for 10 more runs, we're doomed". Relax people. GFS shows storm just a tad east and we are 100+ hrs out. That and the Euro has shown a massive hit for 6 straight runs now (soon to be 7) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'd only pay attention to the trend of the 500mb set-up here and the trend is very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 UKIE AT 96 is a weak, barely 1000mb low. Maybe a little Closer then 12z but very weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think there is concern over the NAM and GFS accelerating the shortwave now that it is making landfall, and wondering if the Euro does the same, and thus comes in east. That's a valid concern. If you're comparing the GFS run to the 12z Euro, that makes sense. But comparing between GFS runs, it doesn't seem like a big deal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The GEM at 48 is also slower with the s/w than the NAM...as of now the NAM/RGEM are faster than the GFS/GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 UKIE AT 96 is a weak, barely 1000mb low. Maybe a little Closer then 12z but very weak. You have a link? I'm pretty sure the UKM isn't running yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 60 of the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think there is concern over the NAM and GFS accelerating the shortwave now that it is making landfall, and wondering if the Euro does the same, and thus comes in east. Does the Euro use the same "timeframe" data as the GFS/NAM or does it have slightly newer info since it runs a few hours later? Just curious if the Euro would have a more accurate analysis of the shortwave entering the west? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You have a link? I'm pretty sure the UKM isn't running yet. I know the UKIE tends to have good verification but its been horrid so far this month, I can't really trust it much on anything til it has a success story on one of these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hey can anyone tell me the website where you go type in a day and it shows you maps for that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denverweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 if the euro would continue as advertised and show us what it has been... can we call this thing and say its going to happen or is it still too soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 UKIE AT 96 is a weak, barely 1000mb low. Maybe a little Closer then 12z but very weak. That would be fine if it were centered at HSE and poised to deepen 1mb per hr. I care much more about location than minimum central pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The ggem at hr 60 has the low in tx......at hr 60 on the 00z gfs its in southern AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Does the Euro use the same "timeframe" data as the GFS/NAM or does it have slightly newer info since it runs a few hours later? Just curious if the Euro would have a more accurate analysis of the shortwave entering the west? Thanks! Same time. It takes longer due to fact that it has more data to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You have a link? I'm pretty sure the UKM isn't running yet. It's out. It always comes out this early. Next frame is 120, so can't see in between: Can't post it from my phone. It's definitely out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 if the euro would continue as advertised and show us what it has been... can we call this thing and say its going to happen or is it still too soon? IMO about 18-24 hours too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 if the euro would continue as advertised and show us what it has been... can we call this thing and say its going to happen or is it still too soon? Too soon. I'd say by 12z suite tomorrow we should start to see pretty good convergence in the model data, but I suspect there will still be fluctuation right up until 36-48 hours prior to the storm. In terms of whether it's happening or not, IMO the probability of this being a complete whiff w/ no snow for everyone is very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Is it me, or does the GGEM look like it might miss the phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 if the euro would continue as advertised and show us what it has been... can we call this thing and say its going to happen or is it still too soon? I wouldn't call this until: A ) All the players are fully ashore (12Z tomorrow). B ) The EC comes into better agreement with the other globals, or vice versa. Right now its the EC (usually our best) versus all the other globals. Which to me means that either could be right. The EC is good, but not foolproof... it does have errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's out. It always comes out this early. Next frame is 120, so can't see in between: Can't post it from my phone. It's definitely out though. No, I saw the link before you edited. The timestamp is right. Can you send me the original link when you get a chance? That's a full hour before I usually see the UKM at the ewall or FSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You have a link? I'm pretty sure the UKM isn't running yet. This is best I can do from iPhone. UKIE at 96: http://i55.tinypic.com/263ev69.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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