_AR_ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 ok, I'm seeing it out to 84. To be honest, you'd be surprised. It's not looking bad. It is a deep digging solution and low pressure is developing off the coast. It looks like it might go southeast of the benchmark, but I couldn't say that I am dissapointed with where this is. NAM at 84 hours. I agree. I like storms that dig deep and have potential to ride the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yes, I agree completely. It may not be a hit, but it is definitely close and we must remember that it is the NAM at hr. 84, so not bad like you say. ok, I'm seeing it out to 84. To be honest, you'd be surprised. It's not looking bad. It is a deep digging solution and low pressure is developing off the coast. It looks like it might go southeast of the benchmark, but I couldn't say that I am dissapointed with where this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ace you do realize the models show precipitable moisture and not virga, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Definite improvement from the 18z NAM, but the phase occurs a bit too late and heights haven't backed enough on the east coast for this to turn the corner due N/NNE. But this is out in the fantasy range of the NAM anyway, so I don't put much credence in it. At least its not showing something strongly different than the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the other positive I see is that the strongest part of the vortmax at the 84 hour time frame is coming around the base of the trof and I think this would help create divergence to the north and create more of a negative tilt and really explode the system probably within the next 12-24 hours. I think that process may be a tad late and a little east, but really it's not by very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Definite improvement from the 18z NAM, but the phase occurs a bit too late and heights haven't backed enough on the east coast for this to turn the corner due N/NNE. But this is out in the fantasy range of the NAM anyway, so I don't put much credence in it. At least its not showing something strongly different than the rest of the guidance. exactly. we are thinking along the same lines on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Honestly, I think it's much better if the southern stream gets phased in after entering the Gulf...it won't be able to gain as much moisture if it phases too early, and plus the huge jet streak that comes down from Canada won't be able to impact the storm as much, since it would be placed further north relative to the time where the storm is phasing. I don't think we are in this models wheelhouse yet, I want see the GFS and EC tonight. All the new data combined with the old prognostication may take a run or two for the NAM to digest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Definite improvement from the 18z NAM, but the phase occurs a bit too late and heights haven't backed enough on the east coast for this to turn the corner due N/NNE. But this is out in the fantasy range of the NAM anyway, so I don't put much credence in it. At least its not showing something strongly different than the rest of the guidance. yeah, but it's showing the faster phase around 36 hours...well inside it's "good" range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM is trending steadily to a better solution. Tomorrow's 12z run could be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ace you do realize the models show precipitable moisture and not virga, correct? im not even going to answer this....any light green on the nam you can use an eraser and delete it....please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 After 12z tomorrow is really the time to get excited if the models are still locked onto a strong solution. All the data will be assimilated by then, and hopefully the time for wild swings will end. Therefore, tonight's 0z and tomorrow's 12z are the really crucial runs. It's hard for me to buy into the NAM ahead of 48 hours, so anyone putting a lot of credence into what it shows is probably mistaken. For people worried about the S/W being too far north, it's practically over L.A. at the moment and won't travel north until the northern stream interacts with it. It'll likely have plenty of access to the Gulf in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM is known to have its deficiencies outside of 48 hours, so I will take panels from 48+ with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Again ace, you do realize it show actual precip and not virga, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If light precip on the nam should be erased then the several inches of snow I saw while in MI 2 weeks ago (shown on the model as light green) must have been a halucination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Again ace, you do realize it show actual precip and not virga, correct? YES- but its not there...how is the norlun working out for us that the name showed 3 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ok, that's a valid point ace. But (and I don't have the model in front me) I am assuming the nam is showing over running ahead of the storm and could very well be correct. Norluns are tough to pin down and the nam was the only one showing that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 84 Hr Nam tends to always to do this to a thread. I am more vigilant on the Globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I find I'm almost biting my fingernails waiting for the 0Z GFS to come out... and the EC after that. Can't concentrate on anything else... this can only end badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I find I'm almost biting my fingernails waiting for the 0Z GFS to come out... and the EC after that. Can't concentrate on anything else... this can only end badly Terrified of the rest of the 00z suite coming up... I should just go to sleep and save myself the heartache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I find I'm almost biting my fingernails waiting for the 0Z GFS to come out... and the EC after that. Can't concentrate on anything else... this can only end badly Bahahaha. Agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I find I'm almost biting my fingernails waiting for the 0Z GFS to come out... and the EC after that. Can't concentrate on anything else... this can only end badly I'm with you on this... I get up 4:30Am for work.. I will prolly be up the whole night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Terrified of the rest of the 00z suite coming up... I should just go to sleep and save myself the heartache. I think we'll pretty much know what's going to happen (overall) by tomorrow afternoon. I wish I could just go to sleep until then.. but its not an option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What time does the GFS kick off? 10:45 comes to mind, but I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What time does the GFS kick off? 10:45 comes to mind, but I'm not sure. 10:30...which is right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Whos got the PBP ? ill jump in..im sure others will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 9 has the h5 closed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Whos got the PBP ? I'm sure Tombo will be jumping in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 ill jump in..im sure others will i will get my feet wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 through hr 18 gfs looks about the same, little more ridging ahead and on the back side...confluence is a little greater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 through hr 27 looks pretty close to the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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