Zir0b Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i dont think this run will end well...the faster phasing is going to kill this storm if the monster atlantic low doesn't get out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saloo Kaloo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think if the phase happens quicker it would result in ots solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Look how sharp the 300mb jet is compared to 18z. That has got to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think if the phase happens quicker it would result in ots solution That would not necessarily be the case, as a phase means a stronger, further west storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This thing is digging WAY more at 60 hrs. Looks very interesting. Northern stream is REALLY digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Apparently we were all looking at the southern stream, when we should have been focusing more on the northern stream. Look at how much more it is digging. This should be really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is going to be good for NYC/BOS for sure, but the DC folk are going to be majorly dissapointed if the ultimate evolution is like this...also this storm will no longer by a 965mb bomb since this will be a true true miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Some people are saying a quicker phase results in a more ots solution? Can some explain if this is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i dont think this run will end well...the faster phasing is going to kill this storm if the monster atlantic low doesn't get out of the way. For the love of Christ, could you WAIT until the run ends before making dumb posts like these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Snow even breaking out in Ohio on this run. This is way further north than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 From the analysis of the mets this one on this run sounds like it's going out to sea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That PNA ridge is absolutely insane on the NAM at 69. Energy just dropping down the ridge almost vertically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Some people are saying a quicker phase results in a more ots solution? Can some explain if this is true I do not believe it is true, and i can explain it in this manner. A stronger storm is one that has phasing, and should it phase more west, or earlier this would allow for a more amplified storm which would track further west. A late phase, or no phase results in a storm that slide out to sea. Once again, take this at face value, and hopefully a meteorologist, or one of the students can affirm this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 From the analysis of the mets this one on this run sounds like it's going out to sea... Only one met is saying that and the others disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 From the analysis of the mets this one on this run sounds like it's going out to sea... I don't know, the trough looks somewhat rounded but it's amplifying still with impressive ridging out ahead of it, and it's becoming more neutrally/negatively tilted. It might be more the Miller B kind of storm that slams New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it might be best to take this all the way out to 84 hours first, as far as it goes out, and that will give us the best idea of how it might possibly extrapolate.. the thing is that the NAM is definitely still in it's digging phase, so it's tough to definitively say how it's going to evolve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 69 hrs snow has started in basically the western 2/3 of PA and Ohio is getting snow. Wow, big differences this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I no longer even see any sign of the southern stream shortwave at 69 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it might be best to take this all the way out to 84, as far as we can, and that will give us the best idea of how it might possibly extrapolate.. the thing is that the NAM is definitely still in it's digging phase, so it's tough to definitively say how it's going to evolve Agreed, still digging at 75. Tons of energy still dropping down the PNA ridge, trough starting to sharpen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 72 hrs almost the entire state of PA is getting at least light snow. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 69 hrs snow has started in basically the western 2/3 of PA and Ohio is getting snow. Wow, big differences this run. the NAM past 60 hours has about as much reliability as an rusted car sitting on cement blocks in a junkyard. NAM > 60 hours is not very reliable and there will probably be more "big differences" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like a miller b setup to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Its not about a "quicker phase" having it kick ots, its about the southern s/w moving too quickly and not allowing enough time for the northern stream to phase thus scooting it ots (this and the fact that if the southern s/w speeds up the enrgy may shoot underneath the confluence from the large low to the NE. This is the reason why the slower euro shows a massive hit. We don't want the southern s/w to move too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm not even sure what it's sounding like...the general analysis is up and down but the mets seem to think that this one is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I do not believe it is true, and i can explain it in this manner. A stronger storm is one that has phasing, and should it phase more west, or earlier this would allow for a more amplified storm which would track further west. A late phase, or no phase results in a storm that slide out to sea. Once again, take this at face value, and hopefully a meteorologist, or one of the students can affirm this. Yea, that's what I thought. I just wanted to make sure I wasn't going crazy..overall though this run looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 72 hrs almost the entire state of PA is getting at least light snow. Wow. i assure you there wont be a flake falling from that precip its depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm not even sure what it's sounding like...the general analysis is up and down but the mets seem to think that this one is OTS. IMO, no question this run is better than the 18z and prior. Its much deeper with the northern stream trough/phase and the surface low is further NW. Not sure this will be a hit, but much better than the prior run. Actually this has snow beginning near PHL by late Christmas evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Don't you hate cold and snow? For the most part yes, and I'd much prefer to live in a warm climate, but since I don't, and we have a potential major snowstorm, I want a good one. If I have to live with the cold, then I want the prize as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 ok, I'm seeing it out to 84. To be honest, you'd be surprised. It's not looking bad. It is a deep digging solution and low pressure is developing off the coast. It looks like it might go southeast of the benchmark, but I couldn't say that I am dissapointed with where this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Honestly, I think it's much better if the southern stream gets phased in after entering the Gulf...it won't be able to gain as much moisture if it phases too early, and plus the huge jet streak that comes down from Canada won't be able to impact the storm as much, since it would be placed further north relative to the time where the storm is phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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