weathercoins Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This could be major for the DC-BOS holiday travelers. Honestly I haven't been watching TV broadcasts recently. Are they being cautious? Here in northern Md, Baltimore tv mets Are essentially saying it's an equal chance it will go out to sea. Caution to extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Will the 0z suite include information on the s/w making landfall in Cali? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The last page or two has been a really good read. Shame we can't always let the people who know what they are talking about post without interruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Will the 0z suite include information on the s/w making landfall in Cali? It is not completely on shore as of 00Z, however some of it is. So, there will be some more information. There is a lot more to this than just the shortwave energy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 0000z national satellite and 500mb heights/relative vorticity have a closed 552dm shortwave trough just barely along the California coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Earth you read my mind there the players taking the field - batting practice is almost over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Will the 0z suite include information on the s/w making landfall in Cali? 12z tomorrow will have the players on the field. Tonight just barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like Santa Barbara is in the center of that, so we should be getting pretty good data this time. 0000z national satellite and 500mb heights/relative vorticity have a closed 552dm shortwave trough just barely along the California coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I agree. Should have fairly good details this time, but 12z tomorrow has all of the players completely on the field. 12z tomorrow will have the players on the field. Tonight just barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Don't forget about the northern stream. That's almost as important as the southern stream feature, if not equally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm doing some reading thru the model threads and others to catch up.....two questions that arise: 1) Several red-taggers are saying the NAM extrapolated is OTS? True? 2) Seeing some discussion that we wont see any more trending to the West with the system but rather, if any trend, we will see a nudge East due to potential late-phase or quicker system. Can someone explain why this can't come any farther West than the Euro has progged? Is East really our only option for a 'nudge' here? Thanks guys and gals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Here's what I've got for you guys as of 0000z this evening. Enjoy and good luck to all involved parties tonight with the model guidance suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm doing some reading thru the model threads and others to catch up.....two questions that arise: 1) Several red-taggers are saying the NAM extrapolated is OTS? True? 2) Seeing some discussion that we wont see any more trending to the West with the system but rather, if any trend, we will see a nudge East due to potential late-phase or quicker system. Can someone explain why this can't come any farther West than the Euro has progged? Is East really our only option for a 'nudge' here? Thanks guys and gals. Euro brought moderate snows back into central PA. I think that's pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yesterday, Kathy Orr (CBS 3) had an early call of 5-10 inches That's gutsy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 2) Seeing some discussion that we wont see any more trending to the West with the system but rather, if any trend, we will see a nudge East due to potential late-phase or quicker system. Can someone explain why this can't come any farther West than the Euro has progged? Is East really our only option for a 'nudge' here? Two reasons: ridge over the Eastern Rockies and polar vortex setting up south of James Bay. That's been the concern all along about an OTS solution and why the phase timing is critical for the trough to go negative tilt and "pull" the surface low north/north-northwest. Without the northern stream shortwave, this would be a Bermuda storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 SREFs at 81 are slightly farther west than 15z at 87, but not much. Now on to the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 SREFs at 81 are slightly farther west than 15z at 87, but not much. Now on to the NAM! You can't really tell much based on the 81-87 hr SREF anyway as the spread becomes increasingly wide and the model becomes much less reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 That being said, we can look at the 60 hr H250 heights and see that before the spread widens a whole bunch, the model seems to be indicating a very good positioning of the jet. Still a little too far east for my liking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ladies and Gentlemen... Please take your seats, THEE' Show is about to begin... In this corner, we have... The NAM,GFS,GGEM,UKMET, and the CMC.. Aaaaand in the Faaarrrrrr Corner... WE have the Undefeated,Almighty... KING UEEEEEEEROOOOOOO.... Announcers for this evening will be... Tombo, Allsnow, Hazwopper, and Alpha...and.. This match will go 15 rounds and end approximately 1:45AM EST... Who will the Ultimate champ be ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 SREFs have a progressive look to them at hr 87. It's the latter range of the SREFs but not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Here's what I've got for you guys as of 0000z this evening. Enjoy and good luck to all involved parties tonight with the model guidance suite. BTW what application is that? It looks cool. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 BTW what application is that? It looks cool. Thanks. http://www.simuawips.com/ I signed up for it (it's free) last week and it's one of the best free weather pages on the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ladies and Gentlemen... Please take your seats, THEE' Show is about to begin... In this corner, we have... The NAM,GFS,GGEM,UKMET, and the CMC.. Aaaaand in the Faaarrrrrr Corner... WE have the Undefeated,Almighty... KING UEEEEEEEROOOOOOO.... Announcers for this evening will be... Tombo, Allsnow, Hazwopper, and Alpha...and.. This match will go 15 rounds and end approximately 1:45AM EST... Who will the Ultimate champ be ???? euro got knocked out last week, try again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM is quicker with the southern shortwave (like the GFS earlier), more riding ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Northern Stream interaction already taking place at 36. Much sooner than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM looks pretty fast with the s/w, faster than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 euro got knocked out last week, try again Yea.. I should have left out the undefeated part...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Atlantic low is a bit further north through 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks faster at 42 with higher heights in the east compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 http://www.simuawips.com/ I signed up for it (it's free) last week and it's one of the best free weather pages on the internet. I forgot about that site. Damn good find... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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