blazess556 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This storm could be epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The ECMWF has had a bias of overamplifying east coast storms since its upgrade a few years ago, but to see the model run after run (what is it - 6 now?) with a massive low on the EC, tells you something. There's a very strong signal being detected here and now the rest of the guidance is apparently seeing it, albeit slower than the euro caught on. EC has had a storm in this timeframe 8 runs in a row and the last 6 have been monsters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's comforting knowing what you described above is typical. Even with the last "storm," the Euro may have showed it as a hit once or twice, but ultimately it gave up on it around this time frame and was persistent about it, and all the other models that were showing storm (GFS namely) trended towards it. That, and that fact the Euro has showed this for six runs makes me feel that good snow will come. Yeah I think the Euro may have been falling more into its bias last week w/ the overamplifying the short wave. But it's clear that after the 6th consecutive run of essentially the same solution, this is not a burp or a bias, but rather a strong signal which other models are now detecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yup, and look at that big white area of nothing back where I live. I certainly hope it's not the GFS that ends up verifying. steve... its trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 There is often a lag between the model picking up on changes at the upper levels and surface. And isn't it also somewhat true that the intermediate runs (6z/18z) are good for spotting upper level changes and will give a hint where the 0Z/12Z runs will go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 6abc going with 350 mile wide band of uncertainty up the coast. 10nbc glenn shows 3 possible tracks saying the most trusted model shows a hit (dr.yes ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 steve... its trending I hope so. After being on the outside looking in for two HECS last year, I don't want to be again for this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 steve... its trending Yes, and thank goodness! But to his point, western edge of the mt holly and state college cwa's certainly should be 'more concerned' than points east at this time. And all of us should be hesitant 4-5 days out, period. Lets all just pray for the Euro mega storm. I'll gladly turn santa away this year if this is the return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro ensembles have an encouraging look to them. None of them are progressive like the GFS (which has actually nudged westward). In fact, most of them have a very amplified trough and phase with the low fairly close to the coast. I'd have to say a good majority of them have very good surface low tracks for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The HPC Day 4 and 5 QPF map, brings the 1.00" isohyet to Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro ensembles have an encouraging look to them. None of them are progressive like the GFS (which has actually nudged westward). In fact, most of them have a very amplified trough and phase with the low fairly close to the coast. I'd have to say a good majority of them have very good surface low tracks for our area. I've been playing it conservative the last few days. If the Euro ensemble continues this trend at 0z, I'll be getting more aggressive with snow totals tomorrow. Things are starting to line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro ensembles have an encouraging look to them. None of them are progressive like the GFS (which has actually nudged westward). In fact, most of them have a very amplified trough and phase with the low fairly close to the coast. I'd have to say a good majority of them have very good surface low tracks for our area. I'm assuming you saw the spaghetti plots or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 I've been playing it conservative the last few days. If the Euro ensemble continues this trend at 0z, I'll be getting more aggressive with snow totals tomorrow. Things are starting to line up. Yeah..I am assuming you saw the ridge axis out west and the energy diving south towards the gulf, right? The whole height field is set up very well on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm assuming you saw the spaghetti plots or something? Mean and spaghetti plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I hope so. After being on the outside looking in for two HECS last year, I don't want to be again for this potential. Don't you hate cold and snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6abc going with 350 mile wide band of uncertainty up the coast. 10nbc glenn shows 3 possible tracks saying the most trusted model shows a hit (dr.yes ) Yesterday, Kathy Orr (CBS 3) had an early call of 5-10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah..I am assuming you saw the ridge axis out west and the energy diving south towards the gulf, right? The whole height field is set up very well on the ensembles. Yeah, just totally different than the 0z ensemble. The 12z spag charts really made me start seriously considering the Euro op solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, just totally different than the 0z ensemble. The 12z spag charts really made me start seriously considering the Euro op solution. Same here. I would like to see some positive trends tonight at 00z. One thing that's definitely in my mind...9 times out of 10, when these trends start at this time frame with the northern stream, they don't stop. So seeing things come in more phased in that regard is probably a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, just totally different than the 0z ensemble. The 12z spag charts really made me start seriously considering the Euro op solution. I think 12z tomorrow is when I seriously start honking if the models continue to trend amplified with the storm. The trend is pretty clear now, but I want to have it remain so once the data is properly sampled. It's hard to really jump onboard given all that needs to collaborate to get us our storm. I'm "very cautiously optimistic" at this juncture. But MAN, that Euro run was just insane with the amount of wind it generates Monday morning. 60-70 mph wind at the NJ shore and LI along with the amount of snow it generates would pretty much mean the area would be shut down for days due to flooding, erosion, and cleaning out the snow. Very likely a top 5 storm of the last 50 years if it verified as is. I vaguely remember the 12/92 storm and the kind of damage it did here, and the much more recent storm last March which was a lot weaker and still generated hurricane force wind gusts for southern Long Island. I can't even imagine that plus 18" of snow. Insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, just totally different than the 0z ensemble. The 12z spag charts really made me start seriously considering the Euro op solution. quick question for you....the euro has atendency to underdo precip. or qpf as a bias but with the amounts the euro is putting out for the mid atlantic and northeast would that mean the totals would be higher especially with a stalled closed low or is that kinda wishcasting? also the euor i think is behaving the way it behaved last week in that it stuck with its ots solution besides its burp on thursday. this time around though its sticking with the wrapped up and extremely powerful low over the benchmark or thereabouts, i really cant see the euro changing camps all of a sudden and i think the latest 12 euro is really locking onto this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Expanding more on the 18z GFS and it's good signs, you can see the trend aloft at H5 and H7 as well as at the surface. 12z had the surface low elonaged southwest to northeast over Florida while the 18z has it much deeper and tucked in off the Carolina coast. It may not have pulled it off this run, but the 18z run was insanely close to going absolutely bonkers towards a Euro solution. I'm hoping we can get some continuation of this on the 00z runs. Is it possible the 00z GFS burps and doesn't go in the right direction? Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 quick question for you....the euro has atendency to underdo precip. or qpf as a bias but with the amounts the euro is putting out for the mid atlantic and northeast would that mean the totals would be higher especially with a stalled closed low or is that kinda wishcasting? Does it have that bias? I am unaware of it. The only one I am aware of is the SW shortwave/cutoff bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Expanding more on the 18z GFS and it's good signs, you can see the trend aloft at H5 and H7 as well as at the surface. 12z had the surface low elonaged southwest to northeast over Florida while the 18z has it much deeper and tucked in off the Carolina coast. It may not have pulled it off this run, but the 18z run was insanely close to going absolutely bonkers towards a Euro solution. I'm hoping we can get some continuation of this on the 00z runs. Is it possible the 00z GFS burps and doesn't go in the right direction? Sure. Definitely a much more mature looking comma shape developing this last run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Does it have that bias? I am unaware of it. The only one I am aware of is the SW shortwave/cutoff bias. just saying i heard it somewhere i know the s/w bias as that has been well documented just figured id throw that out there being new im trying to learn as much as models as possible. do you think if this storm happened it would rival 96'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 DTs probability map sure looks good for those of us on Long Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 DTs probability map sure looks good for those of us on Long Island... Any way you can post it here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Any way you can post it here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I've been playing it conservative the last few days. If the Euro ensemble continues this trend at 0z, I'll be getting more aggressive with snow totals tomorrow. Things are starting to line up. Hopefully, the "trend is our friend" in SJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, just totally different than the 0z ensemble. The 12z spag charts really made me start seriously considering the Euro op solution. In all honesty, once I saw the ensemble means at 12z, I let my clients know that there's a significant chance that I will be bumping up totals on tomorrow's conference call. Friday is going to be very interesting, particularly with the municipalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In all honesty, once I saw the ensemble means at 12z, I let my clients know that there's a significant chance that I will be bumping up totals on tomorrow's conference call. Friday is going to be very interesting, particularly with the municipalities. This could be major for the DC-BOS holiday travelers. Honestly I haven't been watching TV broadcasts recently. Are they being cautious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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