baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:02 AM, tmagan said: It is interesting in that if the ECMWF didn't exist, all forecasts would be for this to harmlessly slide out to sea, and nobody would think twice. By the way, when was the first year of the ECMWF model? Not 100% true, but you are partially right, the hype would not be there as it is now. There wouldn't be the forum crashing 1800 visits, that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:06 AM, CT Rain said: Not really. Many of the GFS ensemble members have a big hit, That was just recently the op GFS has a monster scraping by, I wouldn't term it exactly that way as a 'monster' and the UK had a big hit (has just backed off some) When?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Through 36 the 06Z RGEM is not much different than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Need a little help in Mount Pocono area...am I on the right thread for obs up there. think its accumulating. walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:06 AM, CT Rain said: Not really. Many of the GFS ensemble members have a big hit, the op GFS has a monster scraping by, and the UK had a big hit (has just backed off some). Yeah, I did a survey of all the ensembles and the average QPF of them was like .35-.50 for NYC. Two had over 1.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:23 AM, wdrag said: Need a little help in Mount Pocono area...am I on the right thread for obs up there. think its accumulating. walt walt, there is a separate thread for epa/nj/md obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:07 AM, baroclinic_instability said: Not 100% true, but you are partially right, the hype would not be there as it is now. There wouldn't be the forum crashing 1800 visits, that is for sure. I can think of quite a few surprise storms delivered major snows here, but they were mostly a long time ago-- Jan 78 and Feb 79 (PD1) are two that come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:22 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Through 36 the 06Z RGEM is not much different than the NAM. is the h5 low closed off at hr 36? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 TX on the ob thread. walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:28 AM, tombo82685 said: is the h5 low closed off at hr 36? Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:28 AM, tombo82685 said: is the h5 low closed off at hr 36? Through 48, looks almost identical to the 06Z NAM, maybe a tad faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll say this, if the Euro ultimately nails this event it continues to prove how overall strong of a model it really is...it was the Euro vs. the world..to an extent its now the Euro and GFS ensembles vs. the world... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:32 AM, baroclinic_instability said: Through 48, looks almost identical to the 06Z NAM, maybe a tad faster. so the h5 is then closed off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 through hr 12 the gfs is already slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:33 AM, tombo82685 said: so the h5 is then closed off? They are pretty much the same, it is a closed compact circulation but it has a weak connection to the northern stream. I would say they are almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:33 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I'll say this, if the Euro ultimately nails this event it continues to prove how overall strong of a model it really is...it was the Euro vs. the world..to an extent its now the Euro and GFS ensembles vs. the world... If the euro ensembles have trended a tad west you might have to add those in also. And DT for good measure lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:37 AM, baroclinic_instability said: They are pretty much the same, it is a closed compact circulation but it has a weak connection to the northern stream. I would say they are almost identical. well then thats good, did it trend slower from the 0z run?...btw gfs out to hr 24 is a good bit slower with s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:39 AM, tombo82685 said: well then thats good, did it trend slower from the 0z run?...btw gfs out to hr 24 is a good bit slower with s/w Slower seems to be the flavor of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:37 AM, A-L-E-X said: If the euro ensembles have trended a tad west you might have to add those in also. the met from sne, said they are a tick east..its hard to tell on allans site cause of the 24hr increments. They pretty much the same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 through hr 30 the gfs and nam are almost identical...it will be interesting to see if the gfs closes off the h5 low at hr 33 like the nam does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I have a feeling the slowest solution is likely the most correct. Just based of WV alone, this thing is just creeping. This is really going to be a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 gfs is somewhat closed at hr 33, just a tiny area that looks closed off...but still a good deal slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:43 AM, baroclinic_instability said: I have a feeling the slowest solution is likely the most correct. Just based of WV alone, this thing is just creeping. This is really going to be a close call. It looks like it might get to a point where slower isnt actually better anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Slower is initially good.. HOWEVER We don't want to loose the shortwave so much as it nears the gulf to where it misses the phase. But we don't want to loose the shortwave completely to the northern branch to early either. This set up is a pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 gfs closed off at hr 39 at h5..northern stream isnt diving in as fast compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:45 AM, A-L-E-X said: It looks like it might get to a point where slower isnt actually better anymore. Exactly. I am getting just a tad worried. I had discussed this earlier with another met friend. Too slow is also not good. I hate this phrase, but we are truly in "thread-the-needle" territory again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:46 AM, baroclinic_instability said: Exactly. I am getting just a tad worried. I had discussed this earlier with another met friend. Too slow is also not good. I hate this phrase, but we are truly in "thread-the-needle" territory again. aren't all phasing situations thread the needles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 gfs closed low at h5 at hr 42 over dallas area....hr 45 just barely closed off to the east of dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 slightly faster than nam at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On 12/23/2010 at 9:48 AM, tombo82685 said: aren't all phasing situations thread the needles? To a degree, when it comes to rapid positive feedback cyclogenesis events, yes. But even then, certain events have a larger window of opportunity. This one no longer does because the PV is trending so slow. Too slow now and the southern PV will be so weak it will play no role in eventual cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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