eduggs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Euro ensemble mean (shown in the Gen thread) is exactly where I thought it would be and exactly where I want it to be. Slightly faster than and NE of the OP In my head I have been targeting something close to the 12z GGEM for eventual SLP track/intensity. But the GFS ensembles and consistency of the Euro/ensembles have me hedging ever so slightly westward of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 9:04 PM, Bluescat1 said: This is a little off topic but they have already brined the roads up here. They've been brineing the roads around here. Maybe not the past few days but before that the roads were white with salt for about a full week. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah, it looks like it's going to go out to sea on the early frames of the DGEX. But it's ridiculously more amplified compared to it's 06z run..and way further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 9:17 PM, earthlight said: Yeah, it looks like it's going to go out to sea on the early frames of the DGEX. But it's ridiculously more amplified compared to it's 06z run..and way further west. Yeah. It heads out to sea but its so much more amplified and west of its 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 9:17 PM, earthlight said: Yeah, it looks like it's going to go out to sea on the early frames of the DGEX. But it's ridiculously more amplified compared to it's 06z run..and way further west. I'd rather not see a hit on the DGEX at this range. Good to see it moved west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 9:17 PM, earthlight said: Yeah, it looks like it's going to go out to sea on the early frames of the DGEX. But it's ridiculously more amplified compared to it's 06z run..and way further west. I think of amplitude as the distance from midpoint to crest or trough. And I don't see too much change in wave amplitude on the 18z. But like you say, differences are significant this run. What I see is higher heights on the east coast and a dominant "northern stream." This run, unlike the 12z, appears to squash the "southern stream" s/w, which somewhat paradoxically allows for a stronger s/w ridge downstream - which now appears essential. To me this evolution looks similar to other guidance that eventually develop a strong coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 9:32 PM, hazwoper said: GFS initialized Thank goodness, I am glad to move the analysis AWAY from the 18z NAM, not a lot to discern from that run of the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 12hr has a closed low over las vegas...confluence is slightyl less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Question: Weren't we experiencing similar hype about a big weekend storm just a week ago? I feel like we are headed for a similar let down. As not having a technical training in Meteorology, could someone enlighten me on why some seem more sure about this one since it seems the models are not yet in total agreement yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 9:35 PM, tombo82685 said: 12hr has a closed low over las vegas...confluence is slightyl less. More ridging out ahead and stronger s/w at 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 8:27 PM, famartin said: No blowing snow warning. Not sure if they'd coalesce the High WInd and Blizzard Warnings into a simple Blizzard Warning, but they might. I've heard of that being done before. That's the way it's supposed to be done if the blizzard conditions and high wind occur simultaneously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 9:04 PM, Bluescat1 said: This is a little off topic but they have already brined the roads up here. I saw them doing the same thing around here last week about 3 days before the OTS storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Last week the Euro only had one really good run and yes it was only 72 hours before but it didn't have any model support and quickly followed suit with an OTS solution. Yes the same thing could happen but you have to have some faith in the consistency and the other models seeming shift towards it. On 12/22/2010 at 9:42 PM, midtownsnow said: Question: Weren't we experiencing similar hype about a big weekend storm just a week ago? I feel like we are headed for a similar let down. As not having a technical training in Meteorology, could someone enlighten me on why some seem more sure about this one since it seems the models are not yet in total agreement yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 33 has the h5 low over east central new mex... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 9:42 PM, midtownsnow said: Question: Weren't we experiencing similar hype about a big weekend storm just a week ago? I feel like we are headed for a similar let down. As not having a technical training in Meteorology, could someone enlighten me on why some seem more sure about this one since it seems the models are not yet in total agreement yet? Some similiarities, but there was definitely much less confidence this far out. Most of the models had either been flip flopping back and forth or gone completely away from a coastal solution. There was no consistency like theres been with the Euro and this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 39 s/w looks a little stronger, northern stream looks to be a little more agressive also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 look at our little monster getting ready to come ashore in So Cal. Think it will be closed near the four corners? I do looking at water vapor imagery. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 45 has a little closed low in central tex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z gfs is a good bit faster than 12z right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 9:50 PM, goldstar said: look at our little monster getting ready to come ashore in So Cal. Think it will be closed near the four corners? I do looking at water vapor imagery. http://www.nws.noaa....age=wv&hours=24 The more of it we get on shore, the better our modeling will be. The model cycle following when our energy comes on shore will start the final leg of the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 51 closed low just east of dallas. northern stream starting to come in faster than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think this run is going to be a hit or close to it. Confluence is lifting out faster and the northern stream is phasing in more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 9:55 PM, tombo82685 said: hr 51 closed low just east of dallas. northern stream starting to come in faster than 12z confluence appears to exiting a bit quicker too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 60 northern stream continues to dive in alittle faster..1016 low on sw coast of la Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 phasing starting to occur at hr 66..hgts along the east are more tilted sw to ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 9:45 PM, Plfdwxdude said: Last week the Euro only had one really good run and yes it was only 72 hours before but it didn't have any model support and quickly followed suit with an OTS solution. Yes the same thing could happen but you have to have some faith in the consistency and the other models seeming shift towards it. Thank you for the clarification! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 69 more amplified...sub 1016 low south of panama city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 75 sub 1012 low over western panhandle of tx.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 78 sub 1012 over southern ga.. precip almost up to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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