Winter 2018/2019 Professional Met Forecasts

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

El Nino is already really impacting the pattern, looks to be a good Winter. 

[zenmsav6810]

On 10/31/2018 at 9:57 PM, RedSky said:

Weather World likes a blockbuster February due to the Indian Ocean dipole. Kind of Spooky the signals coming together for this winter. 

 

 

2010 redux anybody?

[ChescoWx]

Updated winter forecast from WeatherBell

October 31, 2018

• Evolution to a cold, stormy winter is beginning.
• The most recent closest winters are 2002-03 and 2009-10.
• No change to the man setup first espoused back in August and then late September.
• Forecast made a bit colder for the heart of winter.
• Snowfall map honed a bit.

Snowfall:

Discussion

The setup for this winter has been dealt with exhaustively in previous forecast packages. There is no use flogging a dead horse, as I am happy with our diagnosis. A new round of modeling will come out starting next week and we have not yet had the Euro do its usual flip-flop, as it has done on us before. Then again, we only see its seasonal forecast once a month, and the CFSv2 has been trying desperately to mimic the non-winters of 2001-02 and 2011-12. Given they are antilogs with SSTs and solar activity, it seems kind of hard to believe.

The El Niño, including the type we envisioned using the SOI theory from the previous winter, is evolving. Cold water remains to the west of Australia, which would tend to discourage a major jaunt into the warm phases of the MJO that produce a lot of convection there and something associated with a large scale warm pattern across the U.S.

The warm pool in the North Pacific that we jumped on in 2013-14 and 2014-15 is something that is there, too. Nino3.4 in the central Pacific looks to be warmer than Nino1+2 in the eastern Pacific. There are a lot of markers for a cold winter here.

The Verdict

This outlook is short on explanations since we have gone over the ideas in detail in previous discussions. I still feel we have a good reason to suspect a long, cold winter is evolving. The evolution of the winter pattern will be strongly dependent on the development of the trough in the Pacific from near the Dateline to near 150°W to the south of Alaska. This should leave a trough over the eastern part of the U.S. for the heart of the winter. The closest analogs since the turn of the century are 2002-03 and 2009-10, so we are following that kind of analog into the early winter months.

The bottom line is the next 6 months should average below normal with the deepest of the cold relative to averages in January and February, but cold lasting well into the spring again.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

^ Actually if I had to do a Winter forecast it would look exactly like this, maybe more snowfall. (it's been so wet)

[RedSky]

DT has released his winter outlook. Winter of Yore...

 

[JTA66]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

DT has released his winter outlook. Winter of Yore...

 

It's nice seeing DT going all in (doesn't mean he's right, though). Say what you will about him, he's never struck me as the sort who'll hype cold & snow for the sake of hyping cold & snow.

[ChescoWx]

Latest from JB at WB

The Verdict

The warmth is coming, but I think more cold than this model run is saying is coming right after it. So we have the front 10 days that will be cold, the following 10 days will be warmer, but then it will be colder again. I don't have any faith in the modeling after that, as I think a cold, stormy December is on the way.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Latest from JB at WB

The Verdict

The warmth is coming, but I think more cold than this model run is saying is coming right after it. So we have the front 10 days that will be cold, the following 10 days will be warmer, but then it will be colder again. I don't have any faith in the modeling after that, as I think a cold, stormy December is on the way.

Does JB ever forecast anything besides a "December to remember"?

[ChescoWx]

18 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Does JB ever forecast anything besides a "December to remember"?

Never ever...has a tremendous cold and stormy bias....but he is still excellent at pattern recognition....

[Stormman96]

Im surprised nobody mentioned it but here was Abc6 winter outlook

 

https://6abc.com/weather/cecily-tynans-winter-weather-outlook/4651196/

[Superstorm]

She did a good job explaining details.


.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Hurricane Schwartz going with a winter of Yore with above normal snow for Philly 30-40" and says those numbers are conservative. I feel like a man all alone on an island with BN snowfall season for Philly proper. 

[Birds~69]

These winter predictions from our local outlets are out earlier than normal I believe? Are they that confident?

[Stormman96]

9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

These winter predictions from our local outlets are out earlier than normal I believe? Are they that confident?

Not really they are always out the week before thanksgiving 

[Birds~69]

1 hour ago, Stormman96 said:

Not really they are always out the week before thanksgiving 

Thanksgiving falls on different dates and thanksgiving is super early this year (11/22) so maybe that's why I thought the predictions came out early.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hurricane Schwartz going with a winter of Yore with above normal snow for Philly 30-40" and says those numbers are conservative. I feel like a man all alone on an island with BN snowfall season for Philly proper. 

You think a possible neg NAO may throw a wrench in your outlook? (No offense, but I hope so! Also, do you have similar thoughts for my part of I-95?)

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You think a possible neg NAO may throw a wrench in your outlook? (No offense, but I hope so! Also, do you have similar thoughts for my part of I-95?)

Of course a neg nao would throw a wrench like I put in the outlook. But i am siding with history and recent trends and thinking we dont see a 'sustained' neg nao.

[The Iceman]

Not a pro but here is what I think basing off of analogs, the seasonal pattern thus far, and the long term pattern over the last decade or so. Now that enso is more clear, I am more confident in my thinking.  Analog years are  63-64, 77-78, 86-87, 02-03, 14-15. Now you may see this and think oh man, Iceman is about to drop another winter of yore forecast...but not so fast. This winter should feature an active storm pattern similar to what we have seen in the last few weeks frequently featured in a 'modoki' el nino. Modoki el nino are typically prolific snow makers in the interior and in the Northeast and I feel like this winter will be no different. However, down in the 95 corridor and burbs, modoki's are not as much of a lock to be big years but usually do work in our favor if the atlantic is cooperative. Now usually anytime you have above average precip and around normal temps, the area typically sees above average snow fall. And I think those 2 of those 3 things will be true this winter. Unfortunately I do not think the snow part will come together more often than not for 95. I'm thinking the pattern of late will be the theme of winter. Progressive systems that will be prolific moisture makers but will need to thread the needle in order to produce snow for 95.  As we have seen, and will see later this week, a lot of time these patterns produce storms that either hug the coast or cut up the apps. I do not foresee a -NAO being long lasting based on my personal belief that the NAO is largely in one phase over 20 year periods and right now we are in a +NAO regime. Now I think we will have periods with a -NAO but I do not think it will be the dominant feature this winter. Now due to this, we will largely be trying to thread the needle on the coastal plain which works against us more often than not.  One storm can bust my entire snow forecast but I do think largely this will be a winter of changeover events for the 95 corridor. As a result, even though precip will be above normal and temps likely around normal(as behind these systems we will see temps below normal), I think this winter will be at or below average snowfall for the 95 corridor. For the area around the NE extension N and W, I think this winter will be a good one. Above average for sure, potentially an all timer. Here's the month by month breakdown:

 

Dec 

Temps 0 to -2

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Normal for 95 corridor, Above normal N and W burbs(Northeast extension and north)

Jan

Temps +1 to +3

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Normal 95, above normal N and W

Feb

Temps 0 to +2

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Below Normal 95,  Normal N and W

 

Thanks for reading!

[Stormman96]

13 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Not a pro but here is what I think basing off of analogs, the seasonal pattern thus far, and the long term pattern over the last decade or so. Now that enso is more clear, I am more confident in my thinking.  Analog years are  63-64, 77-78, 86-87, 02-03, 14-15. Now you may see this and think oh man, Iceman is about to drop another winter of yore forecast...but not so fast. This winter should feature an active storm pattern similar to what we have seen in the last few weeks frequently featured in a 'modoki' el nino. Modoki el nino are typically prolific snow makers in the interior and in the Northeast and I feel like this winter will be no different. However, down in the 95 corridor and burbs, modoki's are not as much of a lock to be big years but usually do work in our favor if the atlantic is cooperative. Now usually anytime you have above average precip and around normal temps, the area typically sees above average snow fall. And I think those 2 of those 3 things will be true this winter. Unfortunately I do not think the snow part will come together more often than not for 95. I'm thinking the pattern of late will be the theme of winter. Progressive systems that will be prolific moisture makers but will need to thread the needle in order to produce snow for 95.  As we have seen, and will see later this week, a lot of time these patterns produce storms that either hug the coast or cut up the apps. I do not foresee a -NAO being long lasting based on my personal belief that the NAO is largely in one phase over 20 year periods and right now we are in a +NAO regime. Now I think we will have periods with a -NAO but I do not think it will be the dominant feature this winter. Now due to this, we will largely be trying to thread the needle on the coastal plain which works against us more often than not.  One storm can bust my entire snow forecast but I do think largely this will be a winter of changeover events for the 95 corridor. As a result, even though precip will be above normal and temps likely around normal(as behind these systems we will see temps below normal), I think this winter will be at or below average snowfall for the 95 corridor. For the area around the NE extension N and W, I think this winter will be a good one. Above average for sure, potentially an all timer. Here's the month by month breakdown:

 

Dec 

Temps 0 to -2

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Normal for 95 corridor, Above normal N and W burbs(Northeast extension and north)

Jan

Temps +1 to +3

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Normal 95, above normal N and W

Feb

Temps 0 to +2

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Below Normal 95,  Normal N and W

 

Thanks for reading!

Good forecast. No complaints here since im in quakertown area so should be good. Just find it interesting that most years s the pros on the news dont hype the winter and then I come on here an all the amateurs call for hugh winters.  This year the big wigs in the news are all hyping a great winter especially hurricane basically saying every single ingredient he looks at points to a snowy winter for everyone. Then I come on here an several amateurs are calling for a not so snowy winter.  Just interesting 

[JTA66]

Here's another one to add to the + column -- Paul Pastelok of AccuWx updated his winter outlook today. Changes to his earlier outlook include taking temps down in the NE while increasing snowfall in the I-95 corridor (DC to Boston).

Top analogs include 1986/87, 1994/95, 2002/03. He notes 2002/03 is the best match atm. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Not a pro but here is what I think basing off of analogs, the seasonal pattern thus far, and the long term pattern over the last decade or so. Now that enso is more clear, I am more confident in my thinking.  Analog years are  63-64, 77-78, 86-87, 02-03, 14-15. Now you may see this and think oh man, Iceman is about to drop another winter of yore forecast...but not so fast. This winter should feature an active storm pattern similar to what we have seen in the last few weeks frequently featured in a 'modoki' el nino. Modoki el nino are typically prolific snow makers in the interior and in the Northeast and I feel like this winter will be no different. However, down in the 95 corridor and burbs, modoki's are not as much of a lock to be big years but usually do work in our favor if the atlantic is cooperative. Now usually anytime you have above average precip and around normal temps, the area typically sees above average snow fall. And I think those 2 of those 3 things will be true this winter. Unfortunately I do not think the snow part will come together more often than not for 95. I'm thinking the pattern of late will be the theme of winter. Progressive systems that will be prolific moisture makers but will need to thread the needle in order to produce snow for 95.  As we have seen, and will see later this week, a lot of time these patterns produce storms that either hug the coast or cut up the apps. I do not foresee a -NAO being long lasting based on my personal belief that the NAO is largely in one phase over 20 year periods and right now we are in a +NAO regime. Now I think we will have periods with a -NAO but I do not think it will be the dominant feature this winter. Now due to this, we will largely be trying to thread the needle on the coastal plain which works against us more often than not.  One storm can bust my entire snow forecast but I do think largely this will be a winter of changeover events for the 95 corridor. As a result, even though precip will be above normal and temps likely around normal(as behind these systems we will see temps below normal), I think this winter will be at or below average snowfall for the 95 corridor. For the area around the NE extension N and W, I think this winter will be a good one. Above average for sure, potentially an all timer. Here's the month by month breakdown:

 

Dec 

Temps 0 to -2

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Normal for 95 corridor, Above normal N and W burbs(Northeast extension and north)

Jan

Temps +1 to +3

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Normal 95, above normal N and W

Feb

Temps 0 to +2

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Below Normal 95,  Normal N and W

 

Thanks for reading!

Good read! Refreshing to see I am not the lone man on an island with my thoughts anymore 

[RedSky]

Weather World calling for a +1 to +3F winter, a record warm period in the first half of December(which is really saying something considering the recent torch Decembers) but a cold January and a snowy February.

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Fox 29 AN snowfall entire viewing area for the upcoming area. Very active back end of the season ie Feb and March.

[Maestrobjwa]

On 11/13/2018 at 11:28 AM, The Iceman said:

Not a pro but here is what I think basing off of analogs, the seasonal pattern thus far, and the long term pattern over the last decade or so. Now that enso is more clear, I am more confident in my thinking.  Analog years are  63-64, 77-78, 86-87, 02-03, 14-15. Now you may see this and think oh man, Iceman is about to drop another winter of yore forecast...but not so fast. This winter should feature an active storm pattern similar to what we have seen in the last few weeks frequently featured in a 'modoki' el nino. Modoki el nino are typically prolific snow makers in the interior and in the Northeast and I feel like this winter will be no different. However, down in the 95 corridor and burbs, modoki's are not as much of a lock to be big years but usually do work in our favor if the atlantic is cooperative. Now usually anytime you have above average precip and around normal temps, the area typically sees above average snow fall. And I think those 2 of those 3 things will be true this winter. Unfortunately I do not think the snow part will come together more often than not for 95. I'm thinking the pattern of late will be the theme of winter. Progressive systems that will be prolific moisture makers but will need to thread the needle in order to produce snow for 95.  As we have seen, and will see later this week, a lot of time these patterns produce storms that either hug the coast or cut up the apps. I do not foresee a -NAO being long lasting based on my personal belief that the NAO is largely in one phase over 20 year periods and right now we are in a +NAO regime. Now I think we will have periods with a -NAO but I do not think it will be the dominant feature this winter. Now due to this, we will largely be trying to thread the needle on the coastal plain which works against us more often than not.  One storm can bust my entire snow forecast but I do think largely this will be a winter of changeover events for the 95 corridor. As a result, even though precip will be above normal and temps likely around normal(as behind these systems we will see temps below normal), I think this winter will be at or below average snowfall for the 95 corridor. For the area around the NE extension N and W, I think this winter will be a good one. Above average for sure, potentially an all timer. Here's the month by month breakdown:

 

Dec 

Temps 0 to -2

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Normal for 95 corridor, Above normal N and W burbs(Northeast extension and north)

Jan

Temps +1 to +3

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Normal 95, above normal N and W

Feb

Temps 0 to +2

Precip: Above Normal

Snowfall: Below Normal 95,  Normal N and W

 

Thanks for reading!

So it sounds like both you and @Ralph Wiggum's forecasts will either live by the NAO or die by it...lol I'm REALLY gonna be watching it now! And of course...it would only take one storm during even a passing neg NAO to also work out better for the corridor, right? (And of course, if it finally breaks it's recent pattern become a more dominant feature...even better, right? (aren't weeklies hinting at least going into December as negative? Of course, too early to say if it stays there, I guess)

[KamuSnow]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So it sounds like both you and @Ralph Wiggum's forecasts will either live by the NAO or die by it...lol I'm REALLY gonna be watching it now! And of course...it would only take one storm during even a passing neg NAO to also work out better for the corridor, right? (And of course, if it finally breaks it's recent pattern become a more dominant feature...even better, right? (aren't weeklies hinting at least going into December as negative? Of course, too early to say if it stays there, I guess)

I give them credit for making the effort to do the research and put the thought into it that they do, and I appreciate it. Kind of early to say how the winter will turn out. I'm sure they like snow and a good storm as much as you and I and many others who post here. I like the way things look, but the weather can sure humble you if you get cocky.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

I give them credit for making the effort to do the research and put the thought into it that they do, and I appreciate it. Kind of early to say how the winter will turn out. I'm sure they like snow and a good storm as much as you and I and many others who post here. I like the way things look, but the weather can sure humble you if you get cocky.

Very true...and I didn't mean to mock them or sound condescending (I apologize if it came off that way). Of course, I hope they're both wrong for snow's sake (not to rub it in)...and that's probably why it may have sounded that way! (I'll be a little depressed if we end up with a mixy winter...but I hope the NAO can save that from happening!)

[The Iceman]

12 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So it sounds like both you and @Ralph Wiggum's forecasts will either live by the NAO or die by it...lol I'm REALLY gonna be watching it now! And of course...it would only take one storm during even a passing neg NAO to also work out better for the corridor, right? (And of course, if it finally breaks it's recent pattern become a more dominant feature...even better, right? (aren't weeklies hinting at least going into December as negative? Of course, too early to say if it stays there, I guess)

 

56 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Very true...and I didn't mean to mock them or sound condescending (I apologize if it came off that way). Of course, I hope they're both wrong for snow's sake (not to rub it in)...and that's probably why it may have sounded that way! (I'll be a little depressed if we end up with a mixy winter...but I hope the NAO can save that from happening!)

No worries! Didn't come off condescending at all. I appreciate the comments! I will add that I do not have a high confidence because of the fact I think we will be living on the edge on the 95 corridor.  If things break like yesterday all winter, then I am for sure in trouble. But yesterday was an exception to the rule at least for as long as I've lived in the 95 corridor. Weeklies are looking good for beginning of december and I think this pattern will continue to provide chances especially since the cold air is firmly entrenched already across North america. You are correct though, another storm that is the exception to the rule hitting in mid january as opposed to november could bust my forecast on it's own. I hope i'm wrong though, I love snow just as much as anyone! Maybe this is the winter the NAO finally switches to a majority - regime. We've been in this +NAO regime for almost the entire 2000's even dating back to the 90s. We are overdue imo but with the climate changing nothing is normal anymore but that is another conversation for another day

[KamuSnow]

59 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Very true...and I didn't mean to mock them or sound condescending (I apologize if it came off that way). Of course, I hope they're both wrong for snow's sake (not to rub it in)...and that's probably why it may have sounded that way! (I'll be a little depressed if we end up with a mixy winter...but I hope the NAO can save that from happening!)

It occurred to me that I may have misread the tone of your post, so it's cool that you replied. And we're all for maximum snow, except for maybe Voyager, but he has to drive large heavy trucks in it so we give him a pass. Here's hoping! How did you do yesterday?

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

It occurred to me that I may have misread the tone of your post, so it's cool that you replied. And we're all for maximum snow, except for maybe Voyager, but he has to drive large heavy trucks in it so we give him a pass. Here's hoping! How did you do yesterday?

1.7" was the official total down here in Baltimore (city)! County got like 5 inches. (Which is the most we've had in November since like 1989, lol) And the last time we even had measurable Nov. snow was 1995! You?

[KamuSnow]

45 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

1.7" was the official total down here in Baltimore (city)! County got like 5 inches. (Which is the most we've had in November since like 1989, lol) And the last time we even had measurable Nov. snow was 1995! You?

Nice - 1989 was 4" of dry powder on Thanksgiving Eve here but after mid December that winter was pretty meh. This year feels different so we'll see. Yesterday we got 4.6" and it took a serious beating from over an inch of rain last night but we still have 2 or 3" on the ground in most spots, along with a boatload of leaves. Quite the storm especially for November!