bluewave Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 Using Gough's (1981) solar luminosity formula L(t) = L(t0) / (1 + 0.4 * (1 - t/t0)) we can estimate that solar radiation was still L = 1 / (1 + 0.4 * (1 - 4.55/4.60)) = 99.5% of today's value. This yields a radiative forcing reduction of (1360 / 4) * 0.995 = -1.7 W/m2 relative to today. Using Arrhenius' (1896) original radiative forcing formula ΔF = λ * ln(C/C0) and using 5.35 W/m2 as a more conservative estimate of CO2 sensitivity parameter (the IPCC used 6.3 at one time) we can see that 1000 ppm would produce an effect of ΔF = 5.35 * ln(1000/400) = +4.9 W/m2 relative to today. So yeah, the net CO2 and solar radiative forcing 50 MYA relative to today would be around +3.2 W/m2 whereas just the CO2 forcing today at 1000 ppm would +4.9 W/m2 or about 1.5x times higher. It's obviously just a rough estimate I calculated and it doesn't factor in other climate forcing elements. The point...1000 ppm might be expected to have a bigger effect today all other things being equal because the sun is also brighter. Just food for thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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