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August Discobs Thread


George BM

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    Can someone please tell me what LWX is doing the last two days?    They keep talking about an inversion that will retard convection, but it simply doesn't exist in any of the forecast soundings, and the relative ease with which convection is developing again today (albeit scattered coverage) confirms it's not that tough to initiate convection in this environment.    Forcing is weak, which is preventing widespread development, but the idea that we'd have a quiet day is again going to fail.

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8 minutes ago, high risk said:

    Can someone please tell me what LWX is doing the last two days?    They keep talking about an inversion that will retard convection, but it simply doesn't exist in any of the forecast soundings, and the relative ease with which convection is developing again today (albeit scattered coverage) confirms it's not that tough to initiate convection in this environment.    Forcing is weak, which is preventing widespread development, but the idea that we'd have a quiet day is again going to fail.

Are there referring to this small inversion on their 12z balloon? 

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

My son responded to my text and confirms it is pouring in Roland Park area (he's at the library). Not anything downtown yet. That's a really tiny but apparently potent cell.

My wife works for Hopkins at Mt. Washington, she said it's pouring pretty good there.

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Yay :axe:

From this mornings LWX AFD:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak high pressure will dissipate over the area Friday while an
upper-level trough begins to develop over the Great Lakes. The
subtropical ridge over the southeastern CONUS will weaken a bit
in response to the building trough. Seasonably hot and humid
conditions are expected for Friday along with some sunshine with
the dissipating high still hanging on. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible due to daytime heating later Friday
into Friday evening. At this time, it is most likely that
coverage will remain isolated to scattered, but coverage could
end up being more widespread if the trough develops quicker or
shortwave energy passes through the area in the west to
southwest flow aloft. Any convection may wane a bit overnight
Friday with the loss of daytime heating.

An upper-level trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest
Saturday and Sunday and this will cause ridging to develop over
the Rockies. The Ridging will cause the trough to our west to
develop into a closed upper-level low, causing what is referred
to as an Omega Blocking pattern. Guidance seems to be in good
agreement with this occurring, but still differs in the exact
details of exactly where the upper-level low to our west will
cutoff and how strong will it be. Either way, it looks like with
the upper-level low to our west this will cause a southwest flow
aloft, drawing a return of tropical moisture into our area.
Also, surface low pressure may develop nearby or overhead
depending on how strong the upper-level low is. The enhanced
lift and moisture will cause increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms this weekend, and this pattern is likely to hold
into early next week as well. Details are uncertain, but heavy
rain is a possibility during this time.
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