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August Discobs Thread


George BM

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Appears to be subtle little boundaries all across the area.  As storm move across them, there is a propensity to spin...areas south and east of I-95 have destabilized more, as evident with temps closer to 90 degrees.  This would lead me to believe the tornado risk, if any, is higher across Virginia, Southern Maryland and Delmarva.  

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Hmmm... interesting

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
117 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-011-013-014-016>018-504-506>508-
VAZ052>057-022130-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
Including the cities of Washington, Reisterstown, Cockeysville,
Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park,
Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn,
South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf,
Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown,
Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Bethesda,
Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City,
Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge,
Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville,
Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falmouth,
Fredericksburg, and Dahlgren
117 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon...

At 1:15 PM, a storm system was producing a cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms across east-central Virginia. These storms
are expected to continue moving northeast across the I-95 corridor
of northeastern Virginia and central Maryland through the
afternoon. Instances of severe weather, primarily damaging winds,
along with a risk of an isolated tornado, are possible as these
storms move northeast. Anyone in the region should stay extra
alert to changing weather conditions and heed any warnings issued.
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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Hook is peaking out again around Dumfries. Pretty decent booms already in Arlington.

I’ve been watching that one....still not signs of rotation on scope but that’s a healthy storm

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3 hours ago, Stormpc said:

I received .01 from last nights storms. Heard thunder and saw lightning for several hours with the storms skirting to my West by about 20 miles. Negligible rain amounts the past three days here.

1.65 since Sunday. 

 

2 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Pouring...picked up 1 inch in 9 minutes....still going strong. 

lol Mother Nature trolls and wins

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
155 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Charles County in southern Maryland...
  Southeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia...
  Southeastern Prince William County in northern Virginia...

* Until 245 PM EDT.

* At 154 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dumfries, or
  near Dale City, moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Dale City, Springfield, Fort Hunt, Groveton, Fort Belvoir,
  Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Lorton, Franconia, Hybla Valley,
  Newington, Triangle, Dumfries, West Springfield, Cherry Hill, Mount
  Vernon, Accokeek, Independent Hill and Bryans Road.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Intense thunderstorms can produce brief tornadoes and wind damage.
Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to
an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 7729 3857 7740 3866 7742 3879 7715
      3873 7706 3870 7706 3869 7708 3862 7704
      3859 7704
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 234DEG 20KT 3859 7731

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
236 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms moving into the I-95
corridor as of 2pm. Meso-analysis indicating that effective
available shear around 40-45 kt, with around 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. In spite of rather meager lapse rates there has been
enough organization for rather interesting storm structures,
particularly for the cluster that has moved from metro
Charlottesville, headed toward the Washington DC metro area.
Following the faster CAM timing, believe that activity should
be approaching if not east of the Bay by 5 or 6pm.

There is considerable uncertainty as to what happens next. The
500 mb wind maximum will be sliding into/north of Pennsylvania,
which will reduce the shear profile. Even though the mountains
are less unstable, some CAMs suggest that a second round could
develop in the Appalachians. The HRRR leads this camp, but the
HRW-ARW/NMM both are on board.

Since the deep plume of moisture ahead of the longwave trough
will be closer to the forecast area tonight, and heights will be
lower as well, am hesitant to back off PoPs tonight. Will be
maintaining 40-50% chance overnight.
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Actually not as high on our chances now. That area around DC hasn't advanced much and seems to pressing east a bit. Probably going to end more over the bay than in the Baltimore area, and all that stuff down by Richmond is going well east. Looks like it's our turn to miss out this week.

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