George BM Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1114 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 VAZ036>040-050-051-507-508-011115- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0017.180801T0314Z-180801T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Big Meadows, and Wintergreen 1114 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Virginia, northern Virginia, and northwest Virginia, including the following areas, in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene, Nelson, and Orange. In northern Virginia, Culpeper. In northwest Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, and Rappahannock. * Until 8 AM EDT Wednesday * Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain falling over saturated ground may result in several instances of flash flooding overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Thunderstorm woke me up- of course I get all the rain I needed to break my July record 45 minutes after it doesn’t matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 CHO and Albermarle county FFW... have seen 3 to 6 inches of rain already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Flash Flood Warning VAC003-540-010800- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.W.0064.180801T0440Z-180801T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1240 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... The City of Charlottesville in central Virginia... Albemarle County in central Virginia... * Until 400 AM EDT. * At 1237 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the area. Three to six inches of rain has already fallen across northern and eastern Albemarle County, including the City of Charlottesville. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is likely in this same area. Flooding is already ongoing and is likely to intensify to life-threatening dangerous flash flooding shortly. * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Charlottesville, Crozet, Schuyler, Free Union, Campbell, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Ivy, Scottsville, Esmont, North Garden, Covesville, Yancey Mills, Stony Point, Flordon, Scott Stadium, Cobham, Cismont, Damon and Greenwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 I got .25 overnight and just .06 yesterday. The BIG stuff missed me by about 3 miles to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 A loud t-storm rolled through early this morning around 2 am. Had some booming thunder. Picked up another 0.65" to go along with the 0.45" last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 .34 overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 1.34”. I was just on the east side of the heavy stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 10.75” in July, which is just absurd considering how the month started. August is picking up right where July left off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 .51" overnight to start August. 16.21" for July. eta 43.09" for the year so far which is more than either total from 2016 or 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 A lot of flooding in souther fauquier county this morning. Many roads closed. Moderate to heavy rain a good portion of the night. Interested to see what happens today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Why do they have the SLGT risk so far west? Soundings support severe weather all the way over here as well. CAPE also looks highest D.C and east as well. Not buying it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said: Why do they have the SLGT risk so far west? Soundings support severe weather all the way over here as well. CAPE also looks highest D.C and east as well. Not buying it right now. Look at some of the model progs for later this afternoon. There's plenty of guidance that keeps DC completely dry with the storms all heading well north and west of the area. Instability/ingredients in place does not equal severe weather. Could be best forcing stays west. It may be that the triggers for closer in to the cities will be outflow boundaries and things like bay breezes etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Not a drop last night. FFW issued today. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 2 hours ago, osfan24 said: Models definitely look really dry. NAM shows some heavy rain late Thursday, but it keeps teasing with that and then it doesn't come to fruition. This looks like a huge bust. Cranky can't win them all! Picking this up from the July thread - the models are really having a tough time sustaining the convection that fires to our west (except Stephens City, of course). The NAM and HRRR both show small complexes coming east, but given what happened the last couple of days it wouldn't be a stretch to think that they will be more robust than modeled. Same may go for Thursday late evening. These aren't region-wide events, but whoever gets hit would get quite wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Sigh... people will never learn Flood Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 707 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2018 VAC059-600-011500- /O.CON.KLWX.FA.W.0233.000000T0000Z-180801T1500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ City of Fairfax VA-Fairfax VA- 707 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2018 ...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT FOR FAIRFAX COUNTY AND THE CITY OF FAIRFAX... At 706 AM EDT, local law enforcement officials and stream gauges reported flooding across the area. Even though rain has ended, flooding is still occurring. In particular, Difficult Run is well out of its banks. Accotink Creek is now out of its banks, as well. Several water rescues have been reported. Do NOT drive into flooded areas! Some locations that may experience flooding include... Centreville, Reston, Annandale, Springfield, Herndon, Fairfax, Vienna, Falls Church, Lowes Island, Mantua, Pimmit Hills, American Legion Bridge, Mclean, Potomac, Lake Ridge, Burke, Oakton, Sterling, Chantilly and Lincolnia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Look at some of the model progs for later this afternoon. There's plenty of guidance that keeps DC completely dry with the storms all heading well north and west of the area. Instability/ingredients in place does not equal severe weather. Could be best forcing stays west. It may be that the triggers for closer in to the cities will be outflow boundaries and things like bay breezes etc. Plenty of guidance also kept the area dry last night.....what happened west of town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Oh @Kmlwx... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1032 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A cold front will approach the Mid-Atlantic from the west as high pressure is centered to our east. A deep (especially for Aug 1st) longwave trough axis extends from the Great Lakes to the Mississippi River Valley. As this system slowly approaches today, heights will lower slightly. At the same time, a 500 mb jetlet (50-kt) will be translating through the mean layer flow. Mid morning visible satellite pictures reveal quite a few breaks in the overcast, making diurnal heating and destabilization quite likely. Modifying the 12Z LWX RAOB yields well over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE. Also troubling are the 0-3km SRH values approaching 95 m2/s2. Lacking any synoptic scale forcing, believe that thunderstorms will develop along the ridge lines first, due to terrain circulations. After that, storms will feed off instability and shear, given the boost by kinematics and lower heights. Updrafts likely to be vigorous, with HP supercells possible. Precipitable water has exceeded 2 inches again, so any storms may carry a flood threat, especially in light of wet antecedent conditions. Already had a Flash Flood Watch west of the Blue Ridge as well as the central foothills. Since believe that the ridges will be the focus, have added Frederick MD, western Loudoun, and northern Fauquier to the Flash Flood Watch. Believe that it is possible that thunderstorms may feed off of their own cold pools, and migrate toward I-95. Since heights higher, timing later, and forcing less...do not have a high a confidence level in coverage/potential. Therefore, am not carrying Flash Flood Watch to I-95 corridor at this time. Once evolution becomes more certain, that remains a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Picking this up from the July thread - the models are really having a tough time sustaining the convection that fires to our west (except Stephens City, of course). The NAM and HRRR both show small complexes coming east, but given what happened the last couple of days it wouldn't be a stretch to think that they will be more robust than modeled. Same may go for Thursday late evening. These aren't region-wide events, but whoever gets hit would get quite wet. On top of that, it rained quite a bit last night for a lot of people in our forum, so not sure where cranky was wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Cranky is always right. I remember knowing everything he said about the march 21 snowstorm. Everybody was expecting widespread 1-2 feet when they should of known that the ratios just weren't gonna be 10:1. I wasn't expecting 8-12 inches like TWC said. Only around 3-6 and yes only 3-6 fell because of my knowledge from crankyweatherguy. One of the best weather bloggers out there.. Now in summer, back around June 20 that people were expecting a days long heatwave because "euro said so". Only ended up having 2 days above 90 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 HP supercells get me going. TMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Picked up .41" overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 35 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: On top of that, it rained quite a bit last night for a lot of people in our forum, so not sure where cranky was wrong... Cranky is really good and obviously you have the have's and the have not's when it comes to this type of event and scattered storms, but last week he hyped up a repeat of the previous week and that's not at all what has happened. This has been more of a mountain deal, which he has emphasized more recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Interesing if you look at various modeling over the next 15 days in out region and animate it you will see our area is sandwich in what appears to be excessive heat just to our West and then cooler over us . This area then rapidly transitioning to warmer over the coastal areas to our East, partly theAtlantic SSTs maybe. But, very odd looking at that yesterda, not sure it is still there today. I would think this enhances the chances of precip over our region. I believe the Euro week 1, 2 and 3 all had above normal precip over us , I think week 1 and 3 were the most robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Wouldn't be surprised if a 5% TOR appeared on the 1630z OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 -NAO loading pattern It should be interesting to see what happens (wet) in this -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Guidance looks bone dry through the end of the week...maybe some locations get lucky but this is looking like a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Guidance looks bone dry through the end of the week...maybe some locations get lucky but this is looking like a bust. ya'll is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Guidance looks bone dry through the end of the week...maybe some locations get lucky but this is looking like a bust. Let NWS know so they can cancel the FFW kthx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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