Ginx snewx Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 2 hours ago, Hoth said: Oh how I pray. back broken we descend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: back broken we descend Sure as hell hope this is true. I'm done with this dry/hot period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Sure as hell hope this is true. I'm done with this dry/hot period. Remember when charts were posted in mid July about a change coming ? I’d ask where the ensemble support is for a big cool change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Remember when charts were posted in mid July about a change coming ? I’d ask where the ensemble support is for a big cool change You prefaced your post in an odd way. Who said this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You prefaced your post in an odd way. Who said this? The charts from an op run at day 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The charts from an op run at day 9-10 Wut? The chart starts with today's date and goes thru day 9-10 (next Friday). And those temps would certainly be cooler than what they are now and more seasonable. No one called fo a "big cool change" other than you in your own post. I see the NWS forecasts for this weekend are aout 10F+ cooler than they are with today's and this past weeks temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Remember when charts were posted in mid July about a change coming ? I’d ask where the ensemble support is for a big cool change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 Good signs ahead. Could sneak another hot spell as the midwest ridge flexes a bit end of month...but the war looks beaten down finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 Euro is a wet dank mess , liitle diurnal delta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 Looks warm and humid to me for the next two weeks. However, if the guidance is right it will be cooler temp wise with a lot of clouds and showers into mid week next week at least. But it will stay humid. When the rain leaves the warmth returns. Don’t really see any changes yet of significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks warm and humid to me for the next two weeks. However, if the guidance is right it will be cooler temp wise with a lot of clouds and showers into mid week next week at least. But it will stay humid. When the rain leaves the warmth returns. Don’t really see any changes yet of significance. You try telling that to charts, but they won’t listen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2018 Author Share Posted August 9, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Looks warm and humid to me for the next two weeks. However, if the guidance is right it will be cooler temp wise with a lot of clouds and showers into mid week next week at least. But it will stay humid. When the rain leaves the warmth returns. Don’t really see any changes yet of significance. Mm... I suggest those looking for the "back of summer broken" may need not rush matters... I believe we really need to first see the extinction of these 594 geopotential height nodes that are pearled and oscillatory/pulsing in position and amplitude ...from Bermuda to the SW. The 00z GGEM has a huge WAR signal ... on par or even greater than previous ..D 9 and 10... Which isn't saying much for that particular guidance source, no, but post 'faux' troughing from the GL-NE over the weekend, the Euro is poised to ridge S of 40 N across the eastern 2/3rds of the U.S.... with heights over 588 -... Different model cluster, but the EPS still has 585 south of ORD-BOS pretty much everywhere.. Nah...that's not breaking any backs ... sorry. Imho, we are merely in a cool interlude in warm summer right now... But in fairness... that back break lingo is just that ... lingo, so obviously it really has it's futility, too. Obviously, subjective or not we'll see the tipping point ... I'm thinking nearing the 20th ... The models tend to rush these things. If I were betting ...I'd put money down that we'll see this sort of amplitude/+PNAP structure every third or fourth cycle of a given model for the next 10 days ...then finally that takes hold but no before those 10 days demo some persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2018 Author Share Posted August 9, 2018 I also don't buy the American suite closing off surface pressure S of NE over the weekend like that - ... or at least, I won't purchase without some sort of rebate or bargain or something... Nothing is impossible in this crazy game of weather. It's a matter of picking and choosing a probability package ... I just suspect that given (seasonal trend + climatology regardless of season)/ 2 = a bigger anomaly getting that to happen. Rather, both the Euro and the GGEM drape weakly closed surface pressure across central New England. Which at least offers a nod to those to persistence metrics .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2018 Author Share Posted August 9, 2018 That NAM is still doing this as of 12 z... Beyond 42 hours... it's veering winds into the SSE (150 deg) at Logan, and hangs their temperature at 18 C in the low to middle boundary layer all daylight long. A, in August...ooh k... a bit unusual but not unheard of. However, 150 deg wind direction is from a low 70s SST source... That's just ignoring some 10 deg of oceanic warming potential there - it'll be nerdy and interesting to see which wins that: Physical reality versus virtual reality. That said .. it is 2 C warmer in the T1 level compared to the 00z run, so it may be grudgingly correcting as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 Does this pattern look to persist into the month ? Would think at some point the tropics will wake up and this upper air pattern combined with a fairly saturated ground especially in W MA could be a bad combination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That NAM is still doing this as of 12 z... Beyond 42 hours... it's veering winds into the SSE (150 deg) at Logan, and hangs their temperature at 18 C in the low to middle boundary layer all daylight long. A, in August...ooh k... a bit unusual but not unheard of. However, 150 deg wind direction is from a low 70s SST source... That's just ignoring some 10 deg of oceanic warming potential there - it'll be nerdy and interesting to see which wins that: Physical reality versus virtual reality. That said .. it is 2 C warmer in the T1 level compared to the 00z run, so it may be grudgingly correcting as we get closer. could be a sneaky cool and dreary day N/W of the front on Sat .. verbatim 12km NAM holds areas NW of ORH to BDL in the U50s all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 Even the GFS is rainy with 60s (some midday 50s) here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 Glad we don’t live there . Sounds awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Glad we don’t live there . Sounds awful Looks awesome there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks awesome there. Yeah well I think everyone is selling the NAM/GFS horse rubbish as Tippy said. Euro makes sense . Just another warm ,wet, dew weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 A bit OT, but I was in Atlanta at the end of July. Heat and humidity about what we've been having lately, but it still felt hotter (yes, I know solar angle is higher, but even at night it felt worse). Somehow, if there is a bit of a breeze there is an underlying "coolness" here that doesn't exist down there. Its as if the heat sinks in and just never leaves this time of year once you get south of 40N. Glad to see it make its exit. Summer, for me, lasts at least until mid September most years, just like winter lasts until mid March most years. So another five or six weeks to endure before the solar angle gets low enough to make 85/70 (or more likely 85/55) feel like a whole different animal than it does now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Even the GFS is rainy with 60s (some midday 50s) here. Just looked at the 12Z GFS. Another 2.5" over the weekend. Hey your at 9" something over the past 3 weeks. Might as well round it to a foot of rain for the 30 month period. Watch the setup cut off the rain right below me yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah well I think everyone is selling the NAM/GFS horse rubbish as Tippy said. Euro makes sense . Just another warm ,wet, dew weekend Euro looked like shiat for you Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Euro looked like shiat for you Saturday. I’m not sure what you’re saying? Is it gonna be wet ..yes. On and off showers/storms. But it ain’t gonna be in the 50’s and low60’s in SNE with s flow off those high SST ‘s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m not sure what you’re saying? Is it gonna be wet ..yes. On and off showers/storms. But it ain’t gonna be in the 50’s and low60’s in SNE with s flow off those high SST ‘s Stance noted. It doesn't take much for ORH to pull of a mank low 60s day any time of the year though. We'll see what the 12z euro does. 12z NCEP models got a lot more QPF up here to let us wetbulb down into those 50s and drain them down to the ORH hills. If it's going to be crap anyway I think I would enjoy a break from the AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Stance noted. It doesn't take much for ORH to pull of a mank low 60s day any time of the year though. We'll see what the 12z euro does. 12z NCEP models got a lot more QPF up here to let us wetbulb down into those 50s and drain them down to the ORH hills. If it's going to be crap anyway I think I would enjoy a break from the AC. Agree it won’t be a nice day . No qualms there. I just don’t see a cool , dry HP to the north funneling down low dew air into the region. We struggle to get dews below 65 tomorrow In Sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 Weekend looks spectacular up here high 70's and PC skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 Euro looking wetter with more NE flow Saturday. Mid 60s for the interior, but not as raw as the GFS/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2018 Author Share Posted August 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro looking wetter with more NE flow Saturday. Mid 60s for the interior, but not as raw as the GFS/NAM. I'm surprised it brings the IP/mixing that far S over the LI Sound ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm surprised it brings the IP/mixing that far over the LI Sound ... That was the first thing I thought of when I viewed the maps. Had to check the legend again to see what pink was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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