August dawgs are barking ... but it looks like the month may split

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm hoping, well praying that you are correct. Everyone I know is complaining about the heat and humidity. With that said there has been a recent trend for warm falls so I'm basing my prediction on that trend continuing. 

I'd be interested in seeing the Sep/Oct monthly averages going back to 2000.

My guess:

They'll be above average... However (and this may be crucial), above average relative to climatology hard numbers, but below the global positive departures. 

A total circumstance that would sort of 'hide' a/any SE Canada trough tendency thing I mentioned before... I mean, it's hard to balance verified numbers against pattern propensities .. The old adage, 'statistics lie,' seems apropos.   Take this week.... we have a curvi-linear flow that is technically trough-like in structure, but has 19 C 850 embedded in it ..probably putting up big heat numbers for a couple days.  So the verification proficiently conceals the trough...

[Typhoon Tip]

Hm...  I think I might have been off on my DP assessment for Monday-Wednesday...  Is this a late correction upward - I swore I looked yesterday and the machine numbers were 63'ish... now they're 71 again - huh

[weathafella]

4 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm hoping, well praying that you are correct. Everyone I know is complaining about the heat and humidity. With that said there has been a recent trend for warm falls so I'm basing my prediction on that trend continuing. 

Do you actually spend time each day praying for a wx outcome?

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Do you actually spend time each day praying for a wx outcome?

Well only 5-6 times a day does that count???..clearly my use of the word "praying" was used very loosely.....sort of like someone saying "I'm dying to try out the new restaurant in town"....clearly "dying" in that sentence is being used loosely....But if you want me to pray for a certain wx outcome,just let me know and I'll see what I can do....I have a few connections at the Vatican.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Well only 5-6 times a day does that count???..clearly my use of the word "praying" was used very loosely.....sort of like someone saying "I'm dying to try out the new restaurant in town"....clearly "dying" in that sentence is being used loosely....But if you want me to pray for a certain wx outcome,just let me know and I'll see what I can do....I have a few connections at the Vatican.

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Heatwave poking in the LR. Split in jeapordy. 

[tamarack]

On ‎8‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 11:55 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I'd be interested in seeing the Sep/Oct monthly averages going back to 2000.

My guess:

They'll be above average... However (and this may be crucial), above average relative to climatology hard numbers, but below the global positive departures. 

A total circumstance that would sort of 'hide' a/any SE Canada trough tendency thing I mentioned before... I mean, it's hard to balance verified numbers against pattern propensities .. The old adage, 'statistics lie,' seems apropos.   Take this week.... we have a curvi-linear flow that is technically trough-like in structure, but has 19 C 850 embedded in it ..probably putting up big heat numbers for a couple days.  So the verification proficiently conceals the trough...

I'm frequently fiddling with the data from the nearby Farmington co-op, and one "fiddle" is comparing their data June 1998 forward (the period of my data at our current location) to their 1981-2010 norms.  One caution is that the 1980s are their 2nd coldest (after the '70s) of their 13 decades (1890s and 2010s partial) of record.  I think there was some location changes prior to the current observer's tenure, which began in 1966.  The '80s included Farmington's coldest month measured (Jan. '82) plus coldest June ('80) and Dec ('89, of course.)  However, the departures look significant, with all 12 months being milder 6/98 on than 81-10:

6/98 minus 81-10 averages
JAN   2.29
FEB   1.21
MAR  1.09
APR   0.67
MAY  1.12
JUN   0.21
JUL   0.63
AUG  0.75
SEP   2.14
OCT  1.67
NOV  1.11
DEC  1.50
YEAR 1.20

The period June 1998 thru now includes Farmington's coldest Feb & Mar and 2nd coolest July, but no other tops 3s.  It also set mildest for Feb, Nov, Dec; 2nd mildest Oct & Dec, 3rd mildest Mar & Sep.

[dryslot]

On 8/3/2018 at 4:08 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah...I noticed the cicadas buzzing for the first time yesterday.  Right on schedule

Welcome to two weeks ago.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Welcome to two weeks ago.

I usually don’t hear them until August.   Elevation? 

[dryslot]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I usually don’t hear them until August.   Elevation? 

I'm only at 220' but typically its been the week of 7/20 it starts here hence the name Harvest flies.

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm only at 220' but typically its been the week of 7/20 it starts here hence the name Harvest flies.

Hmm.  Maybe a different species too. My hood is basically all woods and swamp (there are farms and such in my town but I don’t walk near them). Not many fields so maybe that is a factor.  

At least the deer flies are close to being done

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hmm.  Maybe a different species too. My hood is basically all woods and swamp (there are farms and such in my town but I don’t walk near them). Not many fields so maybe that is a factor.  

At least the deer flies are close to being done

Terrible year of yellow jackets. Destruction of 2 huge nests complete, 3 stings not bad. Bugs, mold, ozone, health advisories. Great summer

[J Paul Gordon]

Its got to be a desperate set of circumstances to bring me out of my weatherboard doldrums in August. Doesn't look like much relief on the way. Looks like weeping and gnashing of teeth until December from what some folks are saying here. On the other hand, we know how fast that can change.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

57 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Its got to be a desperate set of circumstances to bring me out of my weatherboard doldrums in August. Doesn't look like much relief on the way. Looks like weeping and gnashing of teeth until December from what some folks are saying here. On the other hand, we know how fast that can change.

It gets better. Big winter incoming.

 

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Terrible year of yellow jackets. Destruction of 2 huge nests complete, 3 stings not bad. Bugs, mold, ozone, health advisories. Great summer

The bane of my existence . I've stumbled into two nests and escaped unscathed . Unlikely my luck will hold . This time of year they become very dangerous since they can see the dark at the end of the tunnel . 

[CapturedNature]

I love hearing the cicada's.  It usually means that temps in the 30s are coming 30-40 days after you hear them.  It's one of those "march of time" indicators for me.  The fact that others are hearing them north of me is a good sign.

[Hazey]

12z gfs, after a small respite, keeps the heat going beyond the end of its run.

[Ginx snewx]

AWT and not on Kevs cold weather board

https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1026896998606221312

[Damage In Tolland]

So essentially a wash. That’s a huge W based on the prevailing attitudes from the all cold all time Amwx forum 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So essentially a wash. That’s a huge W based on the prevailing attitudes from the all cold all time Amwx forum 

AWT your 90% of people like HHH was a random thought

[Damage In Tolland]

Half of 2200 people prefer HHH and half prefer cold rains after a bit of snow. No surprises either way 

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Half of 2200 people prefer HHH and half prefer cold rains after a bit of snow. No surprises either way 

I always knew your reading comprehension was off, read again

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh, right no the split toward a more temperature second half of August doesn't look as well support -  jesus... Kinda went the other way too - interesting.. 

Right now the CDC teleconnectors have unusually loud signals for  this time of the year, and placing a strong -PNA on top of a -EPO with mid summer wave lengths spaces out a strong subtropical ridge expression E of 110 or so west so...  It's a matter of how long that ridge's wave length is in the means... If it's longer, we're interminably hot... if it's shorter, the models are too warm looking in the extended..   Last I update I thought the 20th wouldn't be too late to cash in on the idea ... 

 

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh, right no the split toward a more temperature second half of August doesn't look as well support -  jesus... Kinda went the other way too - interesting.. 

Right now the CDC teleconnectors have unusually loud signals for  this time of the year, and placing a strong -PNA on top of a -EPO with mid summer wave lengths spaces out a strong subtropical ridge expression E of 110 or so west so...  It's a matter of how long that ridge's wave length is in the means... If it's longer, we're interminably hot... if it's shorter, the models are too warm looking in the extended..   Last I update I thought the 20th wouldn't be too late to cash in on the idea ... 

 

We better get a hurricane out of this.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

We better get a hurricane out of this.. 

Out of this?

"this" may not be a cane pattern for the EC should the longer wave-length ridge prevail... It's shuntola - ... If the tele's are right, excluding for the moment the increased margin for error that they have in August climo ... the ridge would need to be of the shorter variety and then you set up more meridional flow from S to N along the EC.  We've seen that on a couple of occasions this summer already so its understandable as a seasonal trend. 

The other problem is that there's a dearth in TW... I don't recall august being so devoid of almost anything as it is now.  I don't honestly even know what the voodoo seasonal outlook is this year -

[Ginx snewx]

The times, they are a changin

[Damage In Tolland]

[Typhoon Tip]

The models are behaving oddly ... or, the atmosphere is - 

They are all doing this, the operational versions, and to some degree their individual ensemble members.  They are closing a mid level center over the OV ... at 582 DAM. 

Closing off centers in that region is odd at this time of year. 

Closing off centers at that elevation of tropospheric heights is also odd ... at any time of year. 

Then, the models use this piece of oddity to block transcontinental heat ... then, phase it eventually with the N stream in the early extended range and promote a whole-scale pattern change toward mid month.  

This is a yo-yo back to the original precepts of this thread... so there's also a continuity issue afoot - caveat emptor.  

Meanwhile... considering at 582 DAM heights, ...we've sustained heat waves under those atmospheric depths... yet here, we are using that depth to block one.  I find that fascinating actually.  

But, the models have been fiddling with the pattern this way all summer.  Seemingly at times ... they fabricate nuances that become instrumental at abasing an on-going warmer than normal troposphere everywhere.  Sometimes I scratch my head in wonder, if perhaps this was done deliberately?  Proooobably not, no (sarcasm).  However, imagine a scenario where the models were parameterized to do this antic whenever they are close to breaching some sort of threshold of absurdity ...and these idiosyncratic features are attempts to normalize: in such fantasy, that's what this summer's been about with modeling behavior.  Anything to stop a Sanoran ejection from getting NE... at least excuse imagined. Interesting... 

In any case, the idea of switching to a more oscillatory pattern that's within a stone's throw of average is back in the recent cycles...  But again, caveat emptor -   

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

The times, they are a changin

Oh how I pray.

[tamarack]

19 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

AWT and not on Kevs cold weather board

https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1026896998606221312

That poll is like asking whether one wishes to be punched in the right eye or the left, especially since "neither" was not acceptable.  Should've been worded, "Which would you hate more?"
 

At least the deer flies are close to being done

haha!  Seeing a couple dozen stalking us around each side of our pickup while at our Machias River tract really encouraged us to go walking into the woods (which we did anyway, of course, as that was what we had come there to do.)