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August dawgs are barking ... but it looks like the month may split

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Some folks on here are calling for big changes to cooler after next week. We don’t think they right .

I do see a trough digging into the Midwest, but we seem to be on the warm side for now. Perhaps a day or two where dews lower, but then right back. Just has a warm look to it IMO. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I do see a trough digging into the Midwest, but we seem to be on the warm side for now. Perhaps a day or two where dews lower, but then right back. Just has a warm look to it IMO. 

AKAIT (as Kevin and I thought) since early summer.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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9 hours ago, weathafella said:

If we avoid debris we can do some sneaky mid 90s tomorrow.

I actually wonder if this hasn't been getting the recognition it needs... 

Yeah, it may fall short... however, the grid numbers pushing 580 dm thickness (not height but thickness, mind you...) is a red-herring for some big virtual temperature numbers - that's code for DP... 

Thing is, it's a secondary sort of concern having to do with the Heat Index, which is ...not usually the highest confidence metric.  But, 93/76 would yield Advisory heat and we don't even have Specials. 

Edit, they issued one for SE NH... my bad

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Posted

Man this pattern is a cane threat too if it persisted. I'm sure it will become more zonal...but if we can get some sort of lower frequency or baseline troughing to stay in the Midwest or south...would be interesting as we approach cane season. Waters here are probably as warm as the MDR. :lol: 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Up until yesterday I had formulated confidence in a split characteristic for the month ... We'd experience above normal in the first 10 to perhaps 15 days, then we'd get into an oscillatory pattern ... like a 1 up 1 down deal the 2nd half. 

I still see that as plausible, however  yegh... as is usual the case no sooner does one posit anything and then some weird metaphysical thing alters the "The Matrix" relative to that posit!  In this case, the models went out of their way to muscle in a whole scale hemispheric modality toward autumn.

I said at the time that the models were showing greater than normal inconsistency with the longer term pattern... but...the Euro was particularly egregious in lspasmatically jolting the hemisphere into a September 23rd look... even trying to sell 850 mb temperatures to 0 C within just 150 miles of Lake Superior.    

All guidance have been inconsistent with the retrograding WAR signal... having the main band of the westerlies sometimes suppressed more erosively over top while ridge is trying to slide west underneath - particularly true in the GFS.  That model pulls off a retrograde faster than seems really physically possible for such large domain spaces/planetary scale like that ... Meh, probably just clue as to the overall troubles in handling the transition.  This WAR thing is transient... it's a matter of how long it takes; how large it gets, how much proxy it has in guiding departures in the mid-range/early extended.

After that... the amount of troughing N of the Lakes into SE Canada is, to incorporate a fantastically irritating pun ... up in the air. But I wouldn't be shocked if we merely replay last 7 year trend of cooling eastern N/A first out of everyone in the solar system at least excuse imaginable in early autumn ...  I almost think it's an emerging predominate rest-state for the in the on-gong, larger heat budget/distribution of Rosby spacing at planetary scale/ changing atmosphere... but no one's going to believe that, even if its true.

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man this pattern is a cane threat too if it persisted. I'm sure it will become more zonal...but if we can get some sort of lower frequency or baseline troughing to stay in the Midwest or south...would be interesting as we approach cane season. Waters here are probably as warm as the MDR. :lol: 

Seriously, the pattern is interesting, but the Atlantic is muy frio this year relative to historical baselines. Only takes one though.

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tamarack

tamarack

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think we were actually talking this kind of a summer happening way back in the spring as I recall . In the midst of people talking about coc and cox and coc k summer 

Depends on one's location.  Last month began with heat and mongo dews and ended with cloudy swamp wx.  However, the 16 days in between, 7-22, averaged 3° BN here with lots of CoC - temps averaged 75/50 for that stretch and the 12 days I called "sunny" are the most for any July here.  Still finished as the warmest July since 2013, an even more dewy-dew month.  Now we'll see how long the current hyper-dews continue, well into next week, at least.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think we were actually talking this kind of a summer happening way back in the spring as I recall . In the midst of people talking about coc and cox and coc k summer 

Summer is 2/3's done and is sitting at #6 coolest in 36 years around here.  June was the 3rd coolest and July wound up just about smack dab in the middle for average temps ranking.  We'll see what August brings in the end but it does look like the first part is going to be humid.

To be sure we've had some impressive stretches of humidity and I would argue that were in the middle of one of the more impressive ones but it has not been hot save for a select group of days.

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
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5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think we were actually talking this kind of a summer happening way back in the spring as I recall . In the midst of people talking about coc and cox and coc k summer 

Actually you mentioned 1816 on at least one occasion this past spring. And during the spring of 2017 you also mentioned 1816. Every time it is cold in the spring you bring up 1816 and you make a reference to people mentioning it on Twitter BUT yet you have failed to provide one source for those tweets.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Actually you mentioned 1816 on at least one occasion this past spring. And during the spring of 2017 you also mentioned 1816. Every time it is cold in the spring you bring up 1816 and you make a reference to people mentioning it on Twitter BUT yet you have failed to provide one source for those tweets.

You’ve got to be fascinated with me to remember all these things I supposedly said. I don’t think I deserve all your attention, but it is very flattering. So thank you from the bottom of my heart. 

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ve got to be fascinated with me to remember all these things I supposedly said. I don’t think I deserve all your attention, but it is very flattering. So thank you from the bottom of my heart. 

Once again,you duck the issue(s)…..You have the longest arms on the board from patting yourself on the back. Now please find the tweets referring to 1816!! You are just upset because someone, meaning me called you out. You expect everyone on the forum to take whatever you say as gospel. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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11 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Once again,you duck the issue(s)…..You have the longest arms on the board from patting yourself on the back. Now please find the tweets referring to 1816!! You are just upset because someone, meaning me called you out. You expect everyone on the forum to take whatever you say as gospel. 

On the contrary muchacho.. the only thing I “expect” is that you will go to extreme measures to make comments on the vast majority of my posts. I “expect” that to continue. If it doesn’t, then I guess we start to “expect “ the unexpected . 

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

On the contrary muchacho.. the only thing I “expect” is that you will go to extreme measures to make comments on the vast majority of my posts. I “expect” that to continue. If it doesn’t, then I guess we start to “expect “ the unexpected . 

"But it's continuing thru June too. We're seeing mets mentioning 1816 now" That is what you wrote on 6/1/2017 in the model mayhem thread!! Are you still denying it???

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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3 hours ago, MetHerb said:

Summer is 2/3's done and is sitting at #6 coolest in 36 years around here.  June was the 3rd coolest and July wound up just about smack dab in the middle for average temps ranking.  We'll see what August brings in the end but it does look like the first part is going to be humid.

To be sure we've had some impressive stretches of humidity and I would argue that were in the middle of one of the more impressive ones but it has not been hot save for a select group of days.

I don’t see how July was normal yet HFD was 10th hottest ever. And most NNE sites were hottest ever to top 3. There’s no way you were that much cooler than HFD

 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see how July was normal yet HFD was 10th hottest ever. And most NNE sites were hottest ever to top 3. There’s no way you were that much cooler than HFD

 

I'd be interested in seeing the NNE data that supports what I've bolded.  My records are totally unofficial, but are same place/same instrument since May 1998, and last month ranks as 6th warmest July of 21, only a tad behind 2011 and 2013, but 1.5° to 2.2° cooler than 1999, 2006 and 2010, the latter being #1.

Edit:  4th warmest July in the past 21 years at Farmington co-op, well behind 2006 and 2010 and close to 2013.

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