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August dawgs are barking ... but it looks like the month may split

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

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Temp at my cool-pocket location stayed at 78 from 8 to 11 last evening, so I was surprised to see it at 68 this AM - still a warm morning here (warmest in 20+ years here: 71 on 7/19/05, with 2 at 69 - day before that 71 and 9/8/99) but about 5° cooler than I expected given the lack of evening cool-down.
 

Yea, when a neighborhood safety watcher, cop wannabe, can chase down an unarmed teenage boy and shoot him to death....and get away with it. Ya know, ‘stand your ground’, whack gun laws. 

IMO, the reason he got away with that, in addition to the SYG law, was prosecutorial overreach.  Evidence was ambiguous and insufficient to prove murder beyond a reasonable doubt, but it seemed plenty sufficient to prove manslaughter and get that violent idiot off the streets for 10 years or so.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said:

Hotter next week than yesterday and today?! 

Not likely...  but not impossible. 

main mitigating factor, crucially, is that the 850 mb/critical boundary layer mixing depth isn't indicating as much SW heat ejection getting entangled into the circulation/adiabats ,,, when those heights and base-line pattern reassert themselves and roll back back in...  This happened in July a couple of times, ...where big lofty DAM numbers were "gutted" of exceptional heat in 850 my layering ...and it reflected in keeping temps hot but not out of control ...92 to 95 or so...  Add in the dimming solar insolation ...mm, I could see that being 88 to 92. 

There's been big heat in the first two weeks of September in the past... so I won't rule it out, but, when cloud contamination needs to be fairly pristine clear, and in this case, the mix depths need more temperature, probably not 95 to 100 no.  

Either way...  autumn is no where to be seen south of about the 60th parallel, and I wonder above that latitude at that. I'll tell ya...one thing I'll admit: I keep thinking its September.  It's August - duh...  I mean, yeah, it's August 29 - granted - but, I'm like, gee,  'heat in August'...haha. wait a minute

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

BOS almost has the “90 by 9” criteria.   88 is close,   Already 90 and starting to rocket.   Sky is much bluer today.   In honor of my vacation starting today I want 100.

I just posted in the other thread... I think they just got it in under the wire:

 

13:00   89.6   71.6   76.5   56   6.9     WSW   29.93     29.95   Clear 10.00

 

Close 'nough for government work -

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Holy hell! 

I just saw the 06 z oper. GFS...  850s would support 91-96 for like 7 straight days. 

So, perhaps I was a bit quick to judge next weeks potential above... But, I still think that past September 1 we need the other parametrics to be pretty damn good - no offsets.. So we'll see. 

But 120 through about 312 hours ... it's like 17 to 21C at 850 the whole way...  

In any case, yeah ...the Euro is edging 850 s warmer and showing less of those suspect, SE Canadia troughy side-swipes so it's lookin' toasty too 

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LurkerBoy

LurkerBoy

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Holy hell! 

I just saw the 06 z oper. GFS...  850s would support 91-96 for like 7 straight days. 

So, perhaps I was a bit quick to judge next weeks potential above... But, I still think that past September 1 we need the other parametrics to be pretty damn good - no offsets.. So we'll see. 

But 120 through about 312 hours ... it's like 17 to 21C at 850 the whole way...  

In any case, yeah ...the Euro is edging 850 s warmer and showing less of those suspect, SE Canadia troughy side-swipes so it's lookin' toasty too 

That's just one Op run, though, yeah? If we got 91-96 for a week straight...I might lose my mind here in NYC. Weather is weather, but woof. I hope that doesn't verfiy 

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dendrite

dendrite

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51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just posted in the other thread... I think they just got it in under the wire:

 

13:00   89.6   71.6   76.5   56   6.9     WSW   29.93     29.95   Clear 10.00

 

Close 'nough for government work -

Probably an 89F since 1255 was 31C (likely 88F). But yeah...close enough.

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dendrite

dendrite

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5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

be careful, the mesowest site rounds from C

I think posting the obs in metric will help people what we mean by it. ASOS isn't spitting out 0.1F resolution in the obs.

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KBOS&unit=1&time=LOCAL&product=&year1=&month1=&day1=00&hour1=00&hours=24&graph=0&past=0&order=1

There was a lone 36C ob in there so it is more likely a high of 96F so far and not 97F.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think posting the obs in metric will help people what we mean by it. ASOS isn't spitting out 0.1F resolution in the obs.

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KBOS&unit=1&time=LOCAL&product=&year1=&month1=&day1=00&hour1=00&hours=24&graph=0&past=0&order=1

There was a lone 36C ob in there so it is more likely a high of 96F so far and not 97F.

I'm not sure about all that... the low at Boston/Logan from that same source reported 80.6 and the official is 81 - so that's rounding in F... 

Perhaps I don't understand ?  

oh, I see - meh... okay, for uber precision but I suggest in a fluid scenario heading in the upward(downward) direction(s) that the margin for error goes in both directions - ...

I guess if we want to get anal about it we'd have to wait it out 

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dendrite

dendrite

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44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not sure about all that... the low at Boston/Logan from that same source reported 80.6 and the official is 81 - so that's rounding in F... 

Perhaps I don't understand ?  

oh, I see - meh... okay, for uber precision but I suggest in a fluid scenario heading in the upward(downward) direction(s) that the margin for error goes in both directions - ...

I guess if we want to get anal about it we'd have to wait it out 

ASOS doesn't report tenths...just whole integers in degF. It spits out a METAR just before the hour with all of the wx info in it including the temp in the remarks section. It takes the temps and converts it into C in the remarks. T035600233 is +35.6C/+23.3C. That is a direct conversion from 96F/74F. In the body of the report those C values get rounded. So it would show 36/23.

The special obs and 5 minute supplemental obs just give you the temp in the body of the report...no "T" group in the remarks. So when the ASOS gives you a 5 min ob of that same 96F/74F, it gets coded only in the body of the report and as 36C/23C. Mesowest has access to these 5 min obs and converts them to degF. So even though the temp/dew is really 96/74, Mesowest is forced to display it as 96.8F/73.4F.

That's why when I say the temp is either 96 or 97 it's because the ob is sent out as 36C when in reality it is either 96F (35.6C) or 97F (36.1C).

If NOAA would just put the damn T group in every ob from an ASOS/AWOS we wouldn't have this discussion a few times per month. lol

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Typhoon Tip

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18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

ASOS doesn't report tenths...just whole integers in degF. It spits out a METAR just before the hour with all of the wx info in it including the temp in the remarks section. It takes the temps and converts it into C in the remarks. T035600233 is +35.6C/+23.3C. That is a direct conversion from 96F/74F. In the body of the report those C values get rounded. So it would show 36/23.

The special obs and 5 minute supplemental obs just give you the temp in the body of the report...no "T" group in the remarks. So when the ASOS gives you a 5 min ob of that same 96F/74F, it gets coded only in the body of the report and as 36C/23C. Mesowest has access to these 5 min obs and converts them to degF. So even though the temp/dew is really 96/74, Mesowest is forced to display it as 96.8F/73.4F.

That's why when I say the temp is either 96 or 97 it's because the ob is sent out as 36C when in reality it is either 96F (35.6C) or 97F (36.1C).

If NOAA would just put the damn T group in every ob from an ASOS/AWOS we wouldn't have this discussion a few times per month. lol

well then "fwiw" 

98.1° F (17:54 GMT 08/29)

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

98F...nice

I think their destined to ping 100 ... at some point.. Yesterday's high was 5 before 5pm so "if" that's any indication, we got a couple hours of cooking yet... sky coverage is minimal and there's no other apparent offsets.. 

we'll see i guess

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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6 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

GFS is an inferno next week.  Hopefully it moderates.   I’ll take the Canadian’s temps instead.  :)

What’s more annoying is the rain imo. That stretch where it rained every day and the mornings were clouds, fogs, and drizzle was so effing depressing. So as long as we dont monsoon next week, I’m good. Sure the COC feels better, is fun to play with but.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think their destined to ping 100 ... at some point.. Yesterday's high was 5 before 5pm so "if" that's any indication, we got a couple hours of cooking yet... sky coverage is minimal and there's no other apparent offsets.. 

we'll see i guess

AWT, triple digits and records. Shut em down....congrats kids with day off from school. 

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36 minutes ago, weathafella said:

BOS may have hit 90 already.  If so, it’s #20 for the season.

My wife and I went to Crane Beach late day yesterday.  Slice of heaven despite these little fleas....

some beaches seem to be worse for those "no-see-'ems"  ...  and what not, sand fleas.  

I was at Narra... no bugs of any kind.  That beach is open to the ocean on the south coast/RI. 

It seems to be beaches on the Bay side of the Cape and up toward Maine that have that issue.  I used to live in Rockport back in the day and I remember they were bad on Long Beach and Back Beach ... which are comparatively very small beaches... but that's 'sides the point.

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