August dawgs are barking ... but it looks like the month may split

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

MEX with 98/77 for BOS on Wed. Record is 97/76. 

I actually have doubts based entirely on an insidious (I used 'insidious' for lack of better word) tendency all summer long to find the lowest plausible temperature, relative to synoptic appeal, and get that number to verify. 

It's a silent trajectory of results this season.. I have never seen anything like it, where we have sustained these kind of heights, and had temperatures "seasonably hot" only.  We really should have popped the cork off the top of history's champagne bottle on highs... I almost wonder if the extraordinarily high DPs have been storing the heat in the pseudoadiabat much of the way.  594 dm heights? No one's even remarking on that... how frequently, and spatially involving that's been... again, under the radar -

Of course, the MEX has been a tad warm biased all season too in its own rite.  But DP that high and a tipping sun angle has me thinking we are a tick or two below the record as opposed to over... 

Granted, I have no confience - haha - just sayn'

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I actually have doubts based entirely on an insidious (I used 'insidious' for lack of better word) tendency all summer long to find the lowest plausible temperature, relative to synoptic appeal, and get that number to verify. 

It's a silent trajectory of results this season.. I have never seen anything like it, where we have sustained these kind of heights, and had temperatures "seasonably hot" only.  We really should have popped the cork off the top of history's champagne bottle on highs... I almost wonder if the extraordinarily high DPs have been storing the heat in the pseudoadiabat much of the way.  594 dm heights? No one's even remarking on that... how frequently, and spatially involving that's been... again, under the radar -

Of course, the MEX has been a tad warm biased all season too in its own rite.  But DP that high and a tipping sun angle has me thinking we are a tick or two below the record as opposed to over... 

Granted, I have no confience - haha - just sayn'

Totally agree. I just wanted to throw that out there. Thermodynamically you're definitely limiting your heating potential with the overperforming dews. The models spit out 67-70 and all summer it verifies 5F warmer.

[dendrite]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS says 4 days left in the period, hot tardy days this week then we normal. Twas a humid Met summer but thankfully some needed breaks of low dews, tons of rain.

Well I guess that's it. Ginxy canceled summer.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS says 4 days left in the period, hot tardy days this week then we normal. Twas a humid Met summer but thankfully some needed breaks of low dews, tons of rain.

It's going to be increasingly more difficult after your four days there ... to get the kind of numbers like the potentials through Wednesday ...maybe Thursday. 

There are two reasons for that:   

1 ... it fuggin' September...  

2 ... there is nothing magical about September that requires it won't be hot... As climate goes, it hints that something about September is cooler than August.  Sarcasm aside, the markers for how/why's do seem to be somewhat different year to year.  In this case... I see the operational runs and their respective ensemble means tending to lower heights inch by inch in N of the 55th parallel - could very well be the very early vestiges of seasonal change creeping in... 

But that circumstance sets the stage for flow acceleration, but for pure velocity part of what acceleration means, but also in the direction part of the acceleration term.  Both those can contribute to increasing confluence packets in the means ...rippling and ejecting out through the lower Maritimes...  BD and or N-door boundary contentions enter the picture.  They will start under-cutting these ginormous heights we've sustained in the means so much this summer... and the models seem to be trying to hold onto those heights despite that lower tropospheric potential for wedging from the N.  

It may be that we cool this beyotch down from the bottom up in sense, ...until such time as the geopotential medium everywhere more obviously succumbs to hemispheric winter...  

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Totally agree. I just wanted to throw that out there. Thermodynamically you're definitely limiting your heating potential with the overperforming dews. The models spit out 67-70 and all summer it verifies 5F warmer.

That's actually a great point there, Brian - something I've also noticed as a machine bias all summer: they are routinely under assessing the DPs ... I am wondering why that is. 

I don't want to go down the GW rabbit hole on that just yet...  We had a 1988 plaguing DP summer ... I don't know where this ranks or compares to that,but, that's 30 years ago's worth of histrionic, hair raising climate bomb ago ... yet, we did something at least similar back there, but who knows - maybe that beacon/warning.. blah blah   

So, something is doing this... and those machine numbers are of course climate biased ...particularly out in time, as we know... so, 67 to 70, those might not be as organically coming off the model grids as we think - separate point about plausible machine guidance bias..

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's going to be increasingly more difficult after your four days there ... to get the kind of numbers like the potentials through Wednesday ...maybe Thursday. 

There are two reasons for that:   

1 ... it fuggin' September...  

2 ... there is nothing magical about September that requires it won't be hot... As climate goes, it hints that something about September is cooler than August.  Sarcasm aside, the markers for how/why's do seem to be somewhat different year to year.  In this case... I see the operational runs and their respective ensemble means tending to lower heights inch by inch in N of the 55th parallel - could very well be the very early vestiges of seasonal change creeping in... 

But that circumstance sets the stage for flow acceleration, but for pure velocity part of what acceleration means, but also in the direction part of the acceleration term.  Both those can contribute to increasing confluence packets in the means ...rippling and ejecting out through the lower Maritimes...  BD and or N-door boundary contentions enter the picture.  They will start under-cutting these ginormous heights we've sustained in the means so much this summer... and the models seem to be trying to hold onto those heights despite that lower tropospheric potential for wedging from the N.  

It may be that we cool this beyotch down from the bottom up in sense, ...until such time as the geopotential medium everywhere more obviously succumbs to hemispheric winter...  

September def looks AN. But gone will be the extended stretches of big heat and dews. Instead it’ll just be warm but still WAN

[ma blizzard]

when was the last time september was BN?

[CoastalWx]

 If we have a WSW wind, it will be 96-97 Wednesday. Feel good that it’s at least 96 Wednesday.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

September def looks AN. But gone will be the extended stretches of big heat and dews. Instead it’ll just be warm but still WAN

Perhaps...

I don't personally have a opinion about the bias of September.   Except perhaps ...to those engaging in that long lead stuff, I'd be leery of the 'whip-lash' temperature trend scenario. 

Weather  starts getting more sensitive to change in September, which is a different canvas circumstance compared to JJA... "Cold" in JJA is really more like mild to warm... particularly in a year when the ambient wet-bulb are so high everywhere it really has had trouble cooling off.  ...although to be fair, I'm not sure if this DP anomaly has existed out throughout the N. Plains, Lakes and up into Manitoba - Ontario in Canada. 

Anyway point being, CAA episodes can be more abruptly effective now ...  It really doesn't take as much to get a 42 F DP under a 76F high as we think - 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

when was the last time september was BN?

It never has been ... "normal's" been rising for a million years 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I actually have doubts based entirely on an insidious (I used 'insidious' for lack of better word) tendency all summer long to find the lowest plausible temperature, relative to synoptic appeal, and get that number to verify. 

It's a silent trajectory of results this season.. I have never seen anything like it, where we have sustained these kind of heights, and had temperatures "seasonably hot" only.  We really should have popped the cork off the top of history's champagne bottle on highs... I almost wonder if the extraordinarily high DPs have been storing the heat in the pseudoadiabat much of the way.  594 dm heights? No one's even remarking on that... how frequently, and spatially involving that's been... again, under the radar -

Of course, the MEX has been a tad warm biased all season too in its own rite.  But DP that high and a tipping sun angle has me thinking we are a tick or two below the record as opposed to over... 

Granted, I have no confience - haha - just sayn'

We might not have had  the champagne cork popped as you said with the highs, but the nights have been bad.  I don't recall using the fan nearly as much in past years.

[tamarack]

50 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

when was the last time september was BN?

2014, up here.

[dendrite]

I can't remember truly fall-like weather to start September since 2000. I remember getting multiple freezes in mid Sep back in the early/mid 90s. Those days feel long gone.

[weathafella]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I can't remember truly fall-like weather to start September since 2000. I remember getting multiple freezes in mid Sep back in the early/mid 90s. Those days feel long gone.

2000 was a cool summer so pattern wise it was easier?

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

2000 was a cool summer so pattern wise it was easier?

That was a nasty summer... 

I remember it clearly.  I lived in Waltham at the time, just off Moody over on Chestnut...  wow.  So many years ... 

I was heavily into running that summer... clocking about 15 miles a week and had to do so in more driving, wind swept misty rains than I care to recall for a June and July period... It was unrelentingly stealing summer.  And the winter before hand sucked... We had the big March testicle twister that teased up into southern VT and dusted the MA with probably the worst forecasting snaffu in modern era...  We didn't really do much more than pedestrian ..if that, east of 95 over Mass if I recall - which, balancing the hoopla the week leading to that fateful p.o.s. storm, for me that included myself in that bust.  Only to then turn into that summer...?  Oh mg G!   

It was just a bad all around 18 months straight for weather enthusiasts - at least where I was at the time.  But, my passion and pre-occupation with the weather was also a bit back-seated at the time as I had other agenda going on - so that helped redirect focus.   

There are a few schit-show 'eras' of bad weather I've experienced in life, though ...in the sense that we kept flipping tails seemed to favored falling on the wrong side of preferences.  The early 200 is in the top three...  Nothing will topple 1987-19990 though... That's the number one sort-butt three year persistent snake-eyed monster period of all time - 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Well I guess that's it. Ginxy canceled summer.

Um no just your definition is over, my definition lasts until the 21st at least. You think its Sept 1st by climo and Met definition

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Um no just your definition is over, my definition lasts until the 21st at least. You think its Sept 1st by climo and Met definition

I end summer in mid Sep. Right around the time Eli has thrown his 10th pick.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dendrite said:

I end summer in mid Sep.

You told me that Met definitions of seasons are pretty spot on, ok well that changed

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, ma blizzard said:

when was the last time september was BN?

2013 for you, ya know like forever ago

[dendrite]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

You told me that Met definitions of seasons are pretty spot on, ok well that changed

Sorta. I think the climo max up here is like 7/22 or something. Add 45-46 days to that and there's your end of summer I guess. What's that? A week into Sep? Obviously the coast has a bit more of a lag.

[CapturedNature]

58 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I can't remember truly fall-like weather to start September since 2000. I remember getting multiple freezes in mid Sep back in the early/mid 90s. Those days feel long gone.

Check out September 2013 - I show several days that we bottomed out in the 30s and it ranks in my top 10 for coolest Septembers.  In terms of hard freezes, it looks like 2000 was my last one in September.

[CoastalWx]

Sept 2013 squeaked by at BOS. Seemed more pronounced in other areas..maybe from mins? But man September has been quite warm overall recently.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Check out September 2013 - I show several days that we bottomed out in the 30s and it ranks in my top 10 for coolest Septembers.  In terms of hard freezes, it looks like 2000 was my last one in September.

Yeah we did have a couple of 30s in the first 10 days with a mid month freeze at CON.

[CapturedNature]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sept 2013 squeaked by at BOS. Seemed more pronounced in other areas..maybe from mins? But man September has been quite warm overall recently.

Yeah, if I look at my top 10 warmest Septembers it's like a who's who of Septembers in the 2000s, including 2015, 2016 & 2017.  In fact, they are ALL 2000+ for the top 10.

[snowman21]

You really have to go back to 98 and earlier for when falls felt like fall. Although since there was lots of below normal months in the late-80s and 90s, perhaps that wasn't entirely representative of fall either, and I just remember that being what  fall is supposed to be like because that's what I grew up with.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

We might not have had  the champagne cork popped as you said with the highs, but the nights have been bad.  I don't recall using the fan nearly as much in past years.

yup - the elevated nighttime lows is definitely endemic to lofty DPs... 

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

You really have to go back to 98 and earlier for when falls felt like fall. Although since there was lots of below normal months in the late-80s and 90s, perhaps that wasn't entirely representative of fall either, and I just remember that being what  fall is supposed to be like because that's what I grew up with.

I’ll take the winters after 98 though....

[Ginx snewx]

40 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

You really have to go back to 98 and earlier for when falls felt like fall. Although since there was lots of below normal months in the late-80s and 90s, perhaps that wasn't entirely representative of fall either, and I just remember that being what  fall is supposed to be like because that's what I grew up with.

Funny I grew up on the SRI coast in the 60s and 70s and I don't recall Sept being a fall month, many warm days on the beach and sweating out Sept football practices and games.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Funny I grew up on the SRI coast in the 60s and 70s and I don't recall Sept being a fall month, many warm days on the beach and sweating out Sept football practices and games.

I do recall my first Sept of college in 75 being freezing and rainy all month though, learned walking a half mile  from class to class was not all I thought it would be

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Funny I grew up on the SRI coast in the 60s and 70s and I don't recall Sept being a fall month, many warm days on the beach and sweating out Sept football practices and games.

Most of the late Aug/Sep record mins at CON are from the 60s and 70s.