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August dawgs are barking ... but it looks like the month may split

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t think it will be as bad as late July and August. Unless the war is parked enough west again, we should have cooler shoots here and there. As long as it’s not swamp rains, I’m good. 

An AN September is like one of those stale, aggravating regimes. Everything is slowly dying or discoloring. Nothing like making it look and feel like Dubai. Blah.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I think Scott feels about September about the same way I do about April's :D

Imho, at least in September there's an on-going, albeit low probability, chance for some form of tropical entertainment to offset the ennui.  In April? 

Nothing...Period. 

Oh, one could argue, there is some equally valued fleeting chance for a late snow. I would not attempt to abase that argument. Factually, that is true ...there are rarefied occasions where substantive snow can occur in that month.. However, keep in mind, we are talking about preferences: by April 1, I prefer 0 snow 100% of the time, regardless of what x, y, z model is "deliberately" insulting my sensibilities with.  So for me personally, I don't experience any sense of 'joy' and or wonderment and awe from cold and snow post April 1. There are those that hide in the delusion of eternal prosperity during the 18 hours of the freak April snow bomb...I am not one of them.  I simple do not want snow and or cold and or anything antithetical to summery fair post April 1...

Obviously, that is not very realistic as an expectation, particularly the cold aspect of those two sensible weather types.  Snow can be relatively infrequent (enough so..).  But give me a 38 F with two weeks of mist - oh ...yes, oh yes... do me baby! Sometimes I even think there are those that take some sort of morbid, moral victory away from that just because it keeps them that much closer to winter, and that much farther away from the warm season they loathe.

Either way, it's just one of my personal demons I have to endure every year.  And, every so often ...though seemingly more so over the last decade or two, we do get an early warm pulse - ironically ...that's when I situate my own delusion. Like, THIS is gonna last - right.

Anyway, September for me isn't so crushing... I really don't mind stealing away additional summer time as I know that I have an entire four months (hypothetically...) of really interesting, excitable awe-inspiring rage just around corner: the coveted 40 -north N.H. winter.  As far as I'm concerned ...I'll continue to take in outdoor activities, along with that kind of gluttonous exuberance of a September's geriatric summer. Because, for all it wants to deny destiny ... January is still coming ;)  

Unless that January is in the year 2012 ..but that's a whole 'nother violation of personal druthers...

Speaking of which, I think it was 1948 that set the record highs for this immediate next Tuesday and Wednesday's dates?  Looks like 99 on Tuesday and 97 on Wednesday for Logan... 94 at Worcester - if this latter is true, 94 that late in the season at 1,000 foot elevation is pretty damn fantastic.  Wow...  Anyway, the Euro synoptic appeal those two days suggest the Logan numbers could be in jeopardy. 

The basics: 

588 dm heights - check.  In fact, approaching 594; 

favorable wind direction - check.  West-NW with sufficient momentum to well mix the bl;

850 mb are 21 to 22C both Tue and Wed afternoorn - check. Assuming the bl gets that tall, which in that overall synoptic appeal I believe that's a slam dunk.  

RH - check. Looks like the 700 mb RH is < 50% both days, and given to lofty heights and that pressure pattern/climo therein, ...that's open sky sun. 

Putting those four factors together that really paints a very hot time.  Certainly relative to climatology and quite possibly historically so.  Using the adiabats off the skew-t diagram... that supports about 36 C ... Now, between late May and late July, you typically add 5 F to the conversion for 2- meter temp...else, add 3 F... so, 94.8 + 3 is 97. However, that wind direction adds a bit of kadabatic compression and it might goose that yet more. 

The GFS MOS products are less... but still quite hot.  They are probably being tapped on the shoulder by climo in the derivatives, however, so those 93,95's for KFIT (for example) is certainly in the ball-park all things considered.

So perhaps not a slam dunk for historic heat, but it's close enough to wonder if we can max that -

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JustinRP37

JustinRP37

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On 8/24/2018 at 11:40 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

it depends what was meant by "in" ... for the context of Greenland. 

because... the break up I mentioned has to do with sea-ice, and is thus not "in" Greenland - in fact, ... it's not even "on" Greenland.   it's the pack ice along and off the N coast.  

just for historical reference... the prevailing circulation tends to drive the ice onto the shore and then it back-piles to depth and increases in density, such that it is more robust - more resistant to melt events and seasonal variations of tropospheric warmth.  all that jazz... it hangs tough. 

not so much any more ... as credible (and it is important that be stated...) news agencies are reporting, observations shows the integrity of the ice is faltering .. 

I think the more important thing was that once again JB overdramatisizes the cold while ignoring the warm. Problem is his followers eat it all up. He loves to present real data, but that data is often just s snippet of what is really going on. The real story is the one you posted about, the sea-ice decline and integrity faltering in an area most scientists thought would be one of the last.

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weathafella

weathafella

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sept is an end of summer month, always has been. It ends the 21st or even later. Trained societal lemmings adherent to Labor day as end of summer miss a spectacular time of year. 

True!   Reliable autumn wx usually is here by Columbus Day.  I remember as a kid sweltering through the first weeks of school.   I also recall 70sfrom time to time deep into October and early November.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sept is an end of summer month, always has been. It ends the 21st or even later. Trained societal lemmings adherent to Labor day as end of summer miss a spectacular time of year. 

Labor day is the end of summer for me, always has been. Growing up, playing soccer, double sessions started in early August, but no classes. The Fall season, with classes, started after Labor Day....ending summer. It was time to ‘go to work’, playtime over.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

MEX with 99F for BDL for Wednesday. :lol:

Heat's always been relegated to a kind of back-seat weather threat for most it seems, anyway.  But this summer ... I almost wonder if there is a bit of 'subject exhaustion' with regard to prognostication of 'big heat' ? 

It seems like this is fourth of fifth installment of big number potential. Though I am not totally certain what has or has not verified with NWS vs the argument of the backyard Davis' owner's insistence that their records must also describe the entire universe ... I don't get the sense there is a general civility wide issue with having had to endure. I have eave's dropped the occasional passing sentiment about the humidity. I think that much is empirically proven - we've journeyed through a rich DP summer.  However, the proportional sensible experience may not have compared very well to any of those times where actual excessive heat was forewarned - or has it? 

That could be for a lot of reasons, both discrete and abstract, in the way modern era provides protection ...if not luxuries. It's almost like NWS needs to change there warning and/or advisory statements to include, "out of doors", because people are perhaps too protected in the enclaves of modern era to appreciate these "threats."  Big heat is but a door away from A.C.'ed bliss. The same is essentially true at the other end of the sensible weather spectrum, too.  At both ends, homes are increasingly central-air controlled, as are public venues. Not everywhere, no, but these offsets nowadays are too readily available as salvation ... such that the whole of the hot weather as an event? I'm sorry - we can wade through two decades of climate-sociological papers, or just get with the intuitive reality that psychology isn't very well molded or prepared to accept these as perilous, for having had that tactility.  They become more like a transient annoyance, while we are distracted by life, scurrying between cozy conveyance conveniences to our next climate-controlled safe zone ... and so on..

And, I mentioned the other end of the spectrum; I think a similar phenomenon takes place with blizzards and deep, cold snow results? It's never going to be as big of a deal to society now, as it was 200 years ago ... People are not pooping in buckets because they're homestead's back entrance is situated, invisibly, from its out-house some 100 feet away somewhere on the other side of a ghostly howling whiteout veil, while gelid wind chill's are so jelling it could crunch your flesh to concrete hardness within three minutes of exposure.  Imagine if that's a farmstead, where the very livelihood and survival prospect is a barn full of live-stock that are going to need to be fed regardless of that relentless cryospheric horror? 

They did that... they endured, they overcame, ultimately...tended to die by the age of 50, leathery and worn through. We root on in these in modern era because our impressions of what 'severe winter weather' really means is based upon an entirely different existential exposure. We see it as natural cinema. They were afraid for their lives.

In these modern eras, people get sort of complacent and dullard ...uninterested, tending to not respond until the next clever writer turns a sufficiently momentous headline.

Just offering a plausible explanation for the lack of content/involvement surrounding this looming heat wave in every piece of guidance known to exist to prognostic science ...

Heat Advisories posted for a huge swatch of the MV region, and that air is arced in the models to come quintessentially, perfectly around +3 SD tropospheric height anomaly and I guess it's just boring enough now that meh..

 

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

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30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sept is an end of summer month, always has been. It ends the 21st or even later. Trained societal lemmings adherent to Labor day as end of summer miss a spectacular time of year. 

Sept was a fall month in years of yore but not any longer. Now that his official end of summer(Aug 31st) is in sight he's getting nervous because the heat appears as if it is going to linger well into the fall. Who knows, perhaps Mt Toolland will be green all winter long.

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

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21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heat's always been relegated to a kind of back-seat weather threat for most it seems, anyway.  But this summer ... I almost wonder if there is a bit of 'subject exhaustion' with regard to prognostication of 'big heat' ? 

It seems like this is fourth of fifth installment of big number potential. Though I am not totally certain what has or has not verified with NWS vs the argument of the backyard Davis' owner's insistence that their records must also describe the entire universe ... I don't get the sense there is a general civility wide issue with having had to endure. I have eave's dropped the occasional passing sentiment about the humidity. I think that much is empirically proven - we've journeyed through a rich DP summer.  However, the proportional sensible experience may not have compared very well to any of those times where actual excessive heat was forewarned - or has it? 

That could be for a lot of reasons, both discrete and abstract, in the way modern era provides protection ...if not luxuries. It's almost like NWS needs to change there warning and/or advisory statements to include, "out of doors", because people are perhaps too protected in the enclaves of modern era to appreciate these "threats."  Big heat is but a door away from A.C.'ed bliss. The same is essentially true at the other end of the sensible weather spectrum, too.  At both ends, homes are increasingly central-air controlled, as are public venues. Not everywhere, no, but these offsets nowadays are too readily available as salvation ... such that the whole of the hot weather as an event? I'm sorry - we can wade through two decades of climate-sociological papers, or just get with the intuitive reality that psychology isn't very well molded or prepared to accept these as perilous.  They become more like a transient annoyance, while we are distracted by life, scurrying between cozy conveyance conveniences to our next climate-controlled safe zone ... and so on..

And, I mentioned the other end of the spectrum; I think a similar phenomenon takes place with blizzards and deep, cold snow results? It's never going to be as big of a deal to society now, as it was 200 years ago ... People are not pooping in buckets because they're homestead's back entrance is situated, invisibly, from its out-house some 100 feet away somewhere on the other side of a ghostly howling whiteout veil, while wind chill's so jelling it could crunch your flesh to concrete hardness within three minutes of exposure.  Imagine if that's a farmstead, where the very livelihood and survival prospect is a barn full of live-stock that are going to need to be fed regardless of that relentless cryospheric horror? 

They did that... they endured, they overcame, ultimately...tended to die by the age of 50, leathery and worn through. We root on in these in modern era because our impressions of what 'severe winter weather' really means is based upon an entirely different existential exposure. We see it as natural cinema. They were afraid for their lives.

In these modern eras, people get sort of complacent and dullard ...uninterested, tending to not respond until the next clever writer turns a sufficiently momentous headline.

Just offering a plausible explanation for the lack of content/involvement surrounding this looming heat wave in every piece of guidance known to exist to prognostic science ...

Heat Advisories posted for a huge swatch of the MV region, and that air is arced in the models to come quintessentially, perfectly around +3 SD tropospheric height anomaly and I guess it's just boring enough now that meh..

 

Just another reason(the soon to be posted heat advisories) why school should not start until after Labor Day. Lawrence has 1/2 days 8/27-8/30. And no pre school all week. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Labor day is the end of summer for me, always has been. Growing up, playing soccer, double sessions started in early August, but no classes. The Fall season, with classes, started after Labor Day....ending summer. It was time to ‘go to work’, playtime over.

You are not 16 anymore, expand your possibilities 

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