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August dawgs are barking ... but it looks like the month may split


Typhoon Tip

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

ORH 54F this morning

GON 55F, IJD 53, BDL 55

63F at EWR may be his best comparison.

seems to always do that ...Relative to seasonal trends and/or GW that is, but ... ever heard of the old saying, 'the darkest hour is just before the dawn' ?

I may not have the adage exactly right but that's the gist of it.  We always seem to do these intra-seasonal 'bottom out' 's just before the dawn of the next heat wave - so to speak. 

I'm pretty stunned by the 00z Euro's operational complexion for Mon-Wed...   I mean, really, if this were say June 15 through Aug 10 or so, I'd say that's probably five straight days of 90+ ... Not so sure those marginal front-side two days can get over-achieve this late in the solar calendar.  Looks like we add 2-3 F to each afternoon high through next Wed ... then we'll see if/when that trough over SE Canada doesn't get damped and along with it that cfropa -  Prior to that, 23 C at 850?  really - wow.  

Did anyone see the la-la range 06z GFS with it 560+ DAM heights over the MV ...

Meanwhile, the pack ice on the north coast of Greenland ... for the first time in record history, is breaking - nice

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This month will finish AN here, probably enough to make met summer AN by overcoming June's -2.  However, the chances of it being the warmest August in our 21 here have pretty much evaporated, axed by the past 2 weeks being slightly BN.  Would need for the last 5-6 days to run +10 to have a chance, and while I expect some heat, it won't be that hot.

Edit: That "Tallying up the heat" table suggests that the BOS/PVD 70s minima records are in play.  All the other numbers look AN but not all that noteworthy.

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

seems to always do that ...Relative to seasonal trends and/or GW that is, but ... ever heard of the old saying, 'the darkest hour is just before the dawn' ?

I may not have the adage exactly right but that's the gist of it.  We always seem to do these intra-seasonal 'bottom out' 's just before the dawn of the next heat wave - so to speak. 

I'm pretty stunned by the 00z Euro's operational complexion for Mon-Wed...   I mean, really, if this were say June 15 through Aug 10 or so, I'd say that's probably five straight days of 90+ ... Not so sure those marginal front-side two days can get over-achieve this late in the solar calendar.  Looks like we add 2-3 F to each afternoon high through next Wed ... then we'll see if/when that trough over SE Canada doesn't get damped and along with it that cfropa -  Prior to that, 23 C at 850?  really - wow.  

Did anyone see the la-la range 06z GFS with it 560+ DAM heights over the MV ...

Meanwhile, the pack ice on the north coast of Greenland ... for the first time in record history, is breaking - nice

As recently as a month ago JB was tweeting about the snow/ice increase in Greenland. 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

ORH had a low of 54F early this morning but yes, it was 60F at 6am.

But unlike you they had a low 6F cooler.

Subtract 20F off those lows and it looks about right for a torch airmass in January. U20s in the valley with pack hanging on, just above freezing at ORH, then 40F at the bald peaks in the NE CT hills with lots of melting, dripping, and bare spots in the pack.

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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Subtract 20F off those lows and it looks about right for a torch airmass in January. U20s in the valley with pack hanging on, just above freezing at ORH, then 40F at the bald peaks in the NE CT hills with lots of melting, dripping, and bare spots in the pack.

:lol: 

And a post that says "Well you all got what you wished for when I tried to get it to snow.  A cutter and snowpack wiped out to Canada."

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1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As recently as a month ago JB was tweeting about the snow/ice increase in Greenland. 

it depends what was meant by "in" ... for the context of Greenland. 

because... the break up I mentioned has to do with sea-ice, and is thus not "in" Greenland - in fact, ... it's not even "on" Greenland.   it's the pack ice along and off the N coast.  

just for historical reference... the prevailing circulation tends to drive the ice onto the shore and then it back-piles to depth and increases in density, such that it is more robust - more resistant to melt events and seasonal variations of tropospheric warmth.  all that jazz... it hangs tough. 

not so much any more ... as credible (and it is important that be stated...) news agencies are reporting, observations shows the integrity of the ice is faltering .. 

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3 hours ago, MetHerb said:

 

See the above post.

Luckily I don't live there.  49° here.

I believe that u work in downtown Springfield. If so did you make it in this morning ? My office is on State St. I said the hell with it

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BDL is 85 . Normal near 80.

If it looks AN.. it’s AN

Normal is 82F.  You are closer.  The other day you said upper 70s, now you say near 80F.  One more tick up to "lower 80s" and you'll get it.

The dew of 56F down there though must feel nice and fairly enjoyable to be outside in.

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17 hours ago, scoob40 said:

I believe that u work in downtown Springfield. If so did you make it in this morning ? My office is on State St. I said the hell with it

Probably a wise choice.  I'm further down Main Street near Tower Square and got in about 7 with no issues.  Traffic was actually light but down towards the casino it was another story.  I saw pictures and the crowds were filling the streets for blocks down towards State St.  Along with the closures, I think you made a good choice.

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