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August dawgs are barking ... but it looks like the month may split


Typhoon Tip

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How about a scorching dangerously hot Septembers ?  

heh... at least the first week of it ...maybe. 

Yeah, concur ..  a BD is still in the Euro runs - can't shake the bastard.  Not yet anyway..  It may fade/recede NE with time... I put the odds at 50/50 at this range. 

In one sense... the flow is trying to deepen in Canada with general increasing gradation in the heights ...that's going to increase the chances for confluence at mid levels which is antecedent to BD invasion events.

But, the Euro tends to lower heights too much/aggressively over Eastern Canada; this smacks as one of those occasions when extrapolating D5 ... It does that over the eastern U.S. for that matter come winter time, but we'll go ahead and elide that when peering over a D8 juggernaut come Dec.  ha -

That ridge has been a sticking point in the guidance for days and days actually... It's a matter of to what scale and degree, but it's been there remarkably steadfast. We're likely to contend over the eastern 1/2 of the nation, whether we get invited to the party or not. 

 

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Yeah, I cut and mulched the roses by the calendar last year, it got hot and they promptly punched leaves and branches out all the grow buds.  "Not a good idea, guys" I told them.  Sure enough two deader than fence posts, several of the rest coming late from the crowns and haven't bloomed once this year.

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It really just mimics ... .not quite, but almost mirrors the operational, the EPS mean...

The operational is just a bit more amplified with eastern heights, post the GL's trough translation out there 'round day three. 

Quite the warm look -

Both the op. and the mean have backed off the outside slider that they punched SW into the Pacific in the 00z run.  That shortened the wave length in that version, and that ended the heat abruptly as transitively ... that caused the total flow to buckle and a SE Canadian height falls...  This run?  gone entirely...  The 00z GFS op. had a similar look, but the 06 and 12z all trend off as well...

It's not clear whether that feature could come back in future runs.  If yes and verified... it's three days of above noramal abruptly ending with a faux autumn push ... ("faux" because +8 C at 850 isn't really fall-like imho) Anyway, if not, we dog-day into the first days of September. 

two days in there near 20 C at 850 ...  we are still on the above the equator with the sun in the NH so ...

 

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00z operational Euro...  whether that evolution ultimately plays out that way or not, it under-scores my idea that heat after circa August 20th gets shaky in guidance.  Heh..obviously

Particularly in years where meridional flow structures are favored ... which I believe we are in; the present subtropical ridge fairs of summer are merely masking that tendency...  You can already see it in the mids and longer ranged runs ...this propensity to wind up bombs and curve the flow around quasi-severed atmospheric islands at high latitudes.  It's reallly picking up where March/April got bullied by seasonal change... still there, perhaps lurking. 

The Atlantic appears to be in the meridional mode ... In fact, depending on source (and some more than less show this compared to other,  which is a head scratch) the SST distribution is downright tripolar, with less than mere noise looking banded structures of cool and warm SSTs spanning the breadth of the Basin.  That is typically found/correlated well with -NAO phase states.  Yet, the NAO has been predominantly positive during the summer - again... it strikes as a sort of background -NAO forcing that is merely, seasonally held in check - so to speak.  Come some threshold of subtropical collapse and wonder what takes place in that stead.   Might be interesting for an earlier transition than some of these present tendencies to commiserate the opposite... We'll see.  

But back to point... in the 00z Euro...there are lowering heights and pretty strong autumn exertion on the flow above ~ the 55th parallel ... up across the Canadian girdle and that is imposing confluence episode near that same latitude.  The question is, do these really promote the genesis of bully highs to wedge underneath 590 heights like that?  A little credibility straining as is, perhaps... but the essence of that appeal is the sound of clock ticking. 

The far E Pacific will probably dictate whether we really do verify one last heat wave ... whenever the models vaguely imagines carving out an outside slider off the WC... we see a transitive whole-scale flow response downwind where we end up with a trough in SE Canada just enough... vs not.

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On 8/21/2018 at 8:03 PM, Hoth said:

DIT is going to talk about this summer for years to come the way some of us wax poetic about Feb '15. It's just that special from a warmth/dews perspective. 

So you are comparing the coldest snowiest period in recorded history to this summer? I mean its been hot and humid but not close to any records.

IMG_20180823_180454.jpg

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54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Beside early July, it’s been all dews no bass. 

 

54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Beside early July, it’s been all dews no bass. 

 

54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Beside early July, it’s been all dews no bass. 

Oh please. its all relative to the situation and the localized heat index. We can't be quick to say the bass is jacked off when we haven't even clicked the barometers.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

So you are comparing the coldest snowiest period in recorded history to this summer? I mean its been hot and humid but not close to any records.

IMG_20180823_180454.jpg

No, certainly not my perspective. I only ran my AC three days this summer. I was channeling DIT, who would have you believe it's historic and worthy of the days of "yore." From a dews perspective it has been pretty exceptional. I believe Islip has put up almost a fifth of its total observed hours with dews above 75 this summer.

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2 hours ago, Hoth said:

No, certainly not my perspective. I only ran my AC three days this summer. I was channeling DIT, who would have you believe it's historic and worthy of the days of "yore." From a dews perspective it has been pretty exceptional. I believe Islip has put up almost a fifth of its total observed hours with dews above 75 this summer.

It’s been abnormally humid here. This will be remembered as a very humid summer with lots of rain

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The mid and upper 70s dews have been relentless, this is the first break since it started towards the beginning of June. Speaking for my area only...back in the day, these awful stretches were never continuous...they were always broken up be a cold front and thunderstorms...I think August was typically you get the longest dewy stretches without a break.  This summer was something like 7 weeks without a break. That seems anomalous to me. Not looking forward to going back to heat and dews, especially the final week the park is open for summer hours and I'm going to be pulling multiple double shifts

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