Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 Nice partly sunny high dews morning here. We tan. Only .50 yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: But isn't that what happened? We had +RA here in interior SNE... north of NYC activity - again...I repeat, 2-3" fell here. Last night. I meant yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 Pushing noon and my peak solar for the day is 91 W/m2. It's sometimes higher than that in winter with 4" of snow caked onto the sensor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 12, 2018 Author Share Posted August 12, 2018 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Last night. I meant yesterday morning. Yeah...but my point originally was... in this situation, timing and placement should be given in terms of expected error - ... If doing so, the models were fine. Seems there's difficulty keeping the former in mind - but whatever... To each his own. The NAM did okay all things considered.. just imho - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 12, 2018 Author Share Posted August 12, 2018 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: Pushing noon and my peak solar for the day is 91 W/m2. It's sometimes higher than that in winter with 4" of snow caked onto the sensor. I was just nerdly hyper focusing on the hi res vis imagery loop and it really appears the mid and high level is < 50 % of that puke up there at this point. Particularly down this way.. 3,000 foot thick saturated inversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...but my point originally was... in this situation, timing and placement should be given in terms of expected error - ... If doing so, the models were fine. Seems there's difficulty keeping the former in mind - but whatever... To each his own. The NAM did okay all things considered.. just imho - But two different processes and features created the rain. That’s a rather large timing error(more than 12hrs in a 24 hr forecast) and I think it was incorrect in what created the rain. That’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 12, 2018 Author Share Posted August 12, 2018 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: But two different processes and features created the rain. That’s a rather large timing error(more than 12hrs in a 24 hr forecast) and I think it was incorrect in what created the rain. That’s all. Right - I think we're arguing disparate points here. I've already ceded to that notion about the incorrectness - my point was/is ... it's fine given the parameters handled. Euro was atrocious last night - it seems your protecting a bad opinion about the NAM here and I honestly am not defending the NAM? I don't care that you are whomever said the NAM was bad whenever - don't think you have to protect that opinion. If that's kinda sorta 'in a way' what's between the text in this conversation - don't worry, I'm not impugning anyone's bad opinion about matters. I just said, it gets a pass - ... I was being kinda sorta 'in a way' sardonic earlier when I first mentioned it and so it's not gospel. I will say, though, that a lot of modeling grief is inappropriate as a general rule, regardless of target ridicule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right - I think we're arguing disparate points here. I've already ceded to that notion about the incorrectness - my point was/is ... it's fine given the parameters handled. Euro was atrocious last night - it seems your protecting a bad opinion about the NAM here and I honestly am not defending the NAM? I don't care that you are whomever said the NAM was bad whenever - don't think you have to protect that opinion. If that's kinda sorta 'in a way' what's between the text in this conversation - don't worry, I'm not impugning anyone's bad opinion about matters. I just said, it gets a pass - ... I was being kinda sorta 'in a way' sardonic earlier when I first mentioned it and so it's not gospel. I will say, though, that a lot of modeling grief is inappropriate as a general rule, regardless of target ridicule. Well I think we all know model biases and when to cut it some slack. Like missing a deformation band by 30-50 miles. That can happen and is well within modeling error. I guess my point is, it played into the hands of guidance being too “wet” when there is the potential for convection to screw around with the advection processes. People went verbatim with it, and there were caution flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 big fail on the box point/click...a few showers at best 90 pct pops and 1-2 inches of rain for Friday forecast late the night before If it was winter my windblown coating would have evaporated already........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 I swear sometimes weather forecasting was better 20 years ago....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 39 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: I swear sometimes weather forecasting was better 20 years ago....... Definitely not true lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely not true lol. well this weekend was embarrassing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: well this weekend was embarrassing Might get some good downpours this afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 56 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: well this weekend was embarrassing How much rain did you get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 What a downpour now. Good Lord have mercy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a downpour now. Good Lord have mercy What's your Davis have for a rate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a downpour now. Good Lord have mercy Good, I hope it floods your basement for wishing this pox of a weather pattern upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 .75” here over last two days. Perfect for the plants and grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 12, 2018 Author Share Posted August 12, 2018 Seen it all now... cold air damming at 588 dm heights ... I mean, 78 at ALB, 76 out at P-town on the Cape... 68 in N Middlesex Co, 572 thickness, 588 heights... This is some f'n weird atmospheric phenomenon, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 Nice to get .55" over the past hour. Up to 1.6" for the month. Meanwhile, Fall River is getting absolutely dumped on the past couple of hours. Storm is just sitting and sitting over the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: How much rain did you get? less than a tenth of an inch forecast up to 2 for Saturday alone possible to likely down ours last night and today it wasn't even that big an area that got soaked (parts of se new england) we don't need it but I planned around it, just a terrible forecast...when I saw some rain in ct yesterday and the vast majority out in pa/nj and the other blob that skirted the south coast then saw the nearly motionless radar then the back tracking in the box discussion about models too far north blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 3 hours ago, codfishsnowman said: less than a tenth of an inch forecast up to 2 for Saturday alone possible to likely down ours last night and today it wasn't even that big an area that got soaked (parts of se new england) we don't need it but I planned around it, just a terrible forecast...when I saw some rain in ct yesterday and the vast majority out in pa/nj and the other blob that skirted the south coast then saw the nearly motionless radar then the back tracking in the box discussion about models too far north blah blah What? Greenfield got almost 3" and you got .10" ? Weird. I thought all of I-91 corridor got smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 It's like Stephen King's "The Mist" here right now. Near zero visibility fog outside, meanwhile inside, a moth is fluttering around in the lampshade and a spider is crawling on the wall. Current temperature is 60° F. We never mixed out today. Cloudy, coolish, with periods of light drizzle and fog. A fine Sunday in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 Only about .25 or so here all weekend here. Not complaining at all. Sun poked through and was able to get yardwork done which hasn't been easy this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 4 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: What? Greenfield got almost 3" and you got .10" ? Weird. I thought all of I-91 corridor got smoked. Definitely meh around here this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 but then came Tuesday and the floodgates opened from Enfield to Chiccope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 Watch how the stuff in Japan (former TS now phased with trough) completely amplified pattern. Awesome stuff. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dtpres/dtpres_npac_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Looks like 2nd half of the weekend not looking so promising; hopefully front drifts further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 12 hours ago, Modfan said: Looks like 2nd half of the weekend not looking so promising; hopefully front drifts further south What's interesting/ironic ...somewhat, is that the warmer than normal heights and thickness overall may cause the cooler/nastier weather. It's causing the stall farther N with that boundary... It's almost like the low's that form and ripple along the boundary later in the weekend are because of that push and shove in a lot of ways. The whole thing belies the warm look overall, by sensible ending up colder due to clouds and showers. Interesting. We'd otherwise be better off - as you suggest ... - if that sucker'd just go ahead and just push on south into the deep M/A we'd clear out. The air mass behind it would be 82/50 probably... But this way, we may end up with 69 to 72 with drab skies and shredded strata rains. Woooonderful - The extended is quite warm looking in both the Euro and GFS operational... The teleconnectors are supposedly still asleep in their perennial noisiness, but, the clustering is remarkably good that in about 4 or 5 days, the PNA goes negative, the NAO remains elevated, and the EPO shallowly goes to about -5 or so SD, and at this time of year with the wave lengths the way they are, that's a hot look sorry to say. The 850 mb temperatures gutted though - ie., not impressively warm. That's not the first time I've seen that this summer - where these ginormous heights evolve, but the air mass contained is surprisingly tepid. we'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What's interesting/ironic ...somewhat, is that the warmer than normal heights and thickness overall may cause the cooler/nastier weather. It's causing the stall farther N with that boundary... It's almost like the low's that form and ripple along the boundary later in the weekend are because of that push and shove in a lot of ways. The whole thing belies the warm look overall, by sensible ending up colder due to clouds and showers. Interesting. We'd otherwise be better off - as you suggest ... - if that sucker'd just go ahead and just push on south into the deep M/A we'd clear out. The air mass behind it would be 82/50 probably... But this way, we may end up with 69 to 72 with drab skies and shredded strata rains. Woooonderful - The extended is quite warm looking in both the Euro and GFS operational... The teleconnectors are supposedly still asleep in their perennial noisiness, but, the clustering is remarkably good that in about 4 or 5 days, the PNA goes negative, the NAO remains elevated, and the EPO shallowly goes to about -5 or so SD, and at this time of year with the wave lengths the way they are, that's a hot look sorry to say. The 850 mb temperatures gutted though - ie., not impressively warm. That's not the first time I've seen that this summer - where these ginormous heights evolve, but the air mass contained is surprisingly tepid. we'll see - And dews stay in 60’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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