Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

August dawgs are barking ... but it looks like the month may split

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 683
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

well... before we roll-eyes...  is it true?

I think it could explain why we have had an odd gap between heights and thicknesses on average, all summer long.

We keep getting 588 dm heights and at time exceeding 594 ... yet, thickness are held to 575 much of the time...save the heat wave in early July... when it maxed 579 (albeit impressive).

However, with heights so ginormous, we could have registered some seriously surreal high temperatures, but haven't...  Where's it been?

The huge theta-e input could be a place to start to answer for why it hasn't gotten hotter at the thermometers than we have seen, that could have 'fit' nicely inside such stratospheric heights.

Firstly... there is a difference between atmospheric thickness and height.  This can be seen in the equations for either; they are similar, but the thcikness has the virtual temperature - which is directly related to moisture content in the calculation. 

I find it interesting ...as a plausible explanation. 

And by the way, this is "hot wet" summer.  A strange pairing ... ironically, despite the increased moisture knocking some of the legs out from under the temperatures (if so...), it is still fascinating to see the last 45 days (~) at > +2 temperatures, and 2 in over normal rainfall.  Under the radar but unusual verification

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We dry in winni. Other than two showers glad sold the American nonsense.

they did okay down here fwiw -  ...I wasn't paying attention to central/NNE... but the last couple cycles leading in both the GFS/NAM, they may or may not have been off on totals, but appeared to have the 'where' of if reasonably positioned...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We dry in winni. Other than two showers glad sold the American nonsense.

I guess. I was sorta in that narrow zone that the euro kept dry yet it rained just enough off and on to make it a crappy day. The GFS had some okay runs, but it had the occasional NAM flood too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, dendrite said:

I guess. I was sorta in that narrow zone that the euro kept dry yet it rained just enough off and on to make it a crappy day. The GFS had some okay runs, but it had the occasional NAM flood too. 

We had a couple if showers,  but nothing that really drove anyone indoors. As long as that’s  the case my kids won’t drive me crazy lol. Dry fail today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Pouring here for hours.  2.6" since noon but more than half of that has been since 6pm.  Fuk this, I am done with rain. 

Nice, seems like we might have had more since your 2.6" reading, too.  I'm following your posts for mby as my station's been off-line for a few months.  Needs some major rehab/replacement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We had a couple if showers,  but nothing that really drove anyone indoors. As long as that’s  the case my kids won’t drive me crazy lol. Dry fail today.

The euro had the better idea yesterday, but it blew chunks overnight. I guess 00z finally caught on, but it’s not much help when it rolls out at 2am. At least I wasn’t awake to see the river going through the backyard this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The euro had the better idea yesterday, but it blew chunks overnight. I guess 00z finally caught on, but it’s not much help when it rolls out at 2am. At least I wasn’t awake to see the river going through the backyard this time.

Soaker last night. Not sure how much fell but seems like quite a bit. Some nice misery mist now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

As far as slow moving, high theta-e/PWAT synoptics warbling along in a weak gradient go ... the models et al did just fine in their own inimitable way under that inherently fluttering chaos. 

Some were too early... some were too west vs east...some not quite enough or a little too much... But excluding those nit-pickings, they all butt-banged the weekend.  Enjoy your morning at the camp ground class -

I had close to 3" of rain here in N Middlesex Co in midriff Mass, and I did see at least one cycle of NAM with QPF that hefty in the 24 hours leading, when we were pig piling our bully bs onto that particular model source. Unfortunately for that elitism, when blending that solution with the others that were (fairly) not too far off, ...sorry, it really won and our shenanigans were wrong...

Someone asked a while ago recently why the NAM still exists ?  - asking why it hasn't been retired? Ha, maybe that's why: it's better than our inability at judging/fairly assessing model performance. That's why.  Wah wah waaaah.

Frankly I'm more amazed that it really should not be doing this at all in a physical sense of it... Heights are greater than 580 DM in the midst of this trough/weakness.  Firstly, as I've opined of late ..that height has supported heat waves in the past.  Yet, here, we are challenged to make climo with it. That's interestingly odd in itself. But just that cinema of the thing... as though the atmosphere has to go out of its way to protect the NE U.S. from heat... By the way, there is a torrid hell going on up the NP where a high latitude SW heat ejection is also stuck/pooled there.  This thing wobbling through the flow back east, it is effectively blocking another big heat from coming east - on a WNW trajectory too which is particularly nasty for us.  

Ironically, I wonder if the heat out west is actually partially causal in this weakness in the flow.  In that idea, the heat in the west is a positive feedback and those heights balloon and stress the geopotential medium. Enters wave mechanics and those physical processes force the weakness to plumb down stream. Their heights out there are some 6 dm above normal 'seasonal ridging' ... so our flow ends up a weak 6 (or so) dm beneath the base-line summer climate and viola.  I think that's an interesting idea -

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As far as slow moving, high theta-e/PWAT synoptics warbling along in a weak gradient ... the models et al did just fine in their own inimitable way under that inherently fluttering chaos. 

Some were too early... some were too west vs east...some not quite enough or a little too much... But excluding those nit-pickings, they all butt-banged the weekend.  Enjoy your morning at the camp ground class -

I had close to 3" of rain here in N Middlesex Co in midriff Mass, and I did see at least one cycle of NAM with QPF that hefty in the 24 hours leading, when we were pig piling our bully bs onto that particular model source. Unfortunately for that elitism, when blending that solution with the others that were (fairly) not too far off, ...sorry, it really won and our shenanigans were wrong...

Someone asked a while ago recently why the NAM still exists ?  - asking why it hasn't been retired? Ha, maybe that's why: it's better than our inability at judging/fairly assessing model performance. That's why.  Wah wah waaaah.

Frankly I'm more amazed that it really should not be doing this at all in a physical sense of it... Heights are greater than 580 DM in the midst of this trough/weakness.  Firstly, as I've opined of late ..that height has supported heat waves in the past.  Yet, here, we are challenged to make climo with it. That's interestingly odd in itself. But just that cinema of the thing... as though the atmosphere has to go out of its way to protect the NE U.S. from heat... By the way, there is a torrid hell going on up the NP where a high latitude SW heat ejection is also stuck/pooled there.  This thing wobbling through the flow back east, it is effectively blocking another big heat from coming east - on a WNW trajectory too which is particularly nasty for us.  

I think the heat out west is actually partially causal in this weakness in the flow.  In that idea, the heat in the west is a positive feedback and those heights balloon and stress the geopotential medium. Enters wave mechanics and those physical processes force the weakness to plumb down stream. Their heights out there are some 6 dm above normal 'seasonal riding' ... so our flow ends up a weak 6 (or so) dm beneath the base-line summer climate and viola.  I think that's an interesting idea -

 

The NAM QPF axis was different on every run. Gfs wasn’t great either. I think guidance wasn’t great in that aspect, but we knew there was some potential for heavy rain. I think the convective parameters targeted NYC and that was correct vs the inches of rain it had over a widespread part of SNE by 18z yesterday. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted
26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The NAM QPF axis was different on every run. Gfs wasn’t great either. I think guidance wasn’t great in that aspect, but we knew there was some potential for heavy rain. I think the convective parameters targeted NYC and that was correct vs the inches of rain it had over a widespread part of SNE by 18z yesterday. 

So I wouldn't dispute those details... but, I also don't think the present technology is sophisticated enough to handled these slow moving, high PWAT with convective tendency, ordeals.

With non-focused synoptic gradients that would otherwise damp noise, noise drives the result set. 

The models don't really normalize noise too well... even the Euro, with it superior normalization system couldn't really do the trick for overnight.

It may be picking and choosing a little... but the NAM gave this region of interior SNE some 2 to 3" for the system (again, negating 'wanting' to fail it for a moment) on whole and that's what happened. Balancing what happened, overall, with the preceding fairness... heh - 

I just...sorry, I don't think model eval around here is very fair and objective much of the time - But... stands to reason. There's no rules in a public forum.    We certainly are not sending any of this content through any kind of formal refereeing/peer review process... are we? ha -

Don't worry ... I'll be beady-eyed enraged come December when the NAM has solid consistency for seven straight cycles for a massive winter strike only to whiff.  Meanwhile, the other guidance types ... they were whiffy all along...but curiously, did throw a couple of runs that nodded in the NAM's favor -

Anyway, so I guess what I'm saying is ... this particular synoptic evolution isn't really a fair test for any of these tools.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

So I wouldn't dispute those details... but, I also don't think the present technology is sophisticated enough to handled these slow moving, high PWAT with convective tendency, ordeals.

With non-focused synoptic gradients that would otherwise damp noise, noise drives the result set. 

The models don't really normalize noise too well... even the Euro, with it superior normalization system couldn't really do the trick for overnight.

It may be picking and choosing a little... but the NAM gave this region of interior SNE some 2 to 3" for the system (again, negating 'wanting' to fail it for a moment) on whole and that's what happened. Balancing what happened, overall, with the preceding fairness... heh - 

I just...sorry, I don't think model eval around here is very fair and objective much of the time - But... stands to reason. There's no rules in a public forum.    We certainly are not sending any of this content through any kind of formal refereeing/peer review process... are we? ha -

Don't worry ... I'll be beady-eyed enraged come December when the NAM has solid consistency for seven straight cycles for a massive winter strike only to whiff.  Meanwhile, the other guidance types ... they were whiffy all along...but curiously, did throw a couple of runs that nodded in the NAM's favor -

The problem was, and I think we all know this....guidance does not handle widespread heavy rain setups well in the warm season. You have no good widespread advection processes, strong jet, or good s/w forcing to help drive these processes like we do in the winter. So, you’re at the mercy of models trying to model convection and subsequent offshoots of this, like low level jets etc. The NAM defintely did not handle that well yesterday. It did handle the nyc convection, but when I see another blob of +RA north of that blob of convection...it’s defintely a little suspicious.  However, I saw forecasters on air speaking of it as if it were verbatim. I understand you have to communicate something to the public, but it also conveys a false sense of confidence.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted
6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The problem was, and I think we all know this....guidance does not handle widespread heavy rain setups well in the warm season. You have no good widespread advection processes, strong jet, or good s/w forcing to help drive these processes like we do in the winter. So, you’re at the mercy of models trying to model convection and subsequent offshoots of this, like low level jets etc. The NAM defintely did not handle that well yesterday. It did handle the nyc convection, but when I see another blob of +RA north of that blob of convection...it’s defintely a little suspicious.  However, I saw forecasters on air speaking of it as if it were verbatim. I understand you have to communicate something to the public, but it also conveys a false sense of confidence.

But isn't that what happened?  We had +RA here in interior SNE... north of NYC activity - again...I repeat, 2-3" fell here.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...