Forecasting Suggestions

[weatherwiz]

I suppose this is the correct sub-form for this but I was perhaps hoping at least someone here has some insight on any possible techniques or data sources to help with forecasting for the Oakland, CA area; Carlsbad, CA area and Reno, NV area. Most specifically dealing with low clouds/fog in the Oakland and Carlsbad areas (and winds for the Oakland area) and with wind direction and gust potential for Reno. 

I use MOS and bufkit but I often find the two sometimes to conflict when it comes to wind direction and sometimes speed. I know MOS doesn't give you wind gust potential so I use bufkit but I'll find that what I would go with can differ quite a bit from NWS. For example, I was looking at bufkit for Reno for Tuesday, July 31st). Looking at bufkit I was thinking winds gusting 15-20 during the day and then becoming nearly calm during the evening as mixing lessens. MOS, however, was showing increasing wind speeds during the evening and overnight and NWS is going for that as well. 

For Oakland sometimes I'll see NWS go with gusts into the lower 20's but looking at bufkit soundings for Oak didn't really see anything showing this potential. 

for anyone who has any experience or forecasting knowledge of these areas what are any possible helpful suggestions? For now what I'm going to do is start working on verification methods to assist myself with understanding how the weather works in these areas much better going forward. 

[mayjawintastawm]

Don't know much about Reno, but I do know that the microclimates around the Bay area and really much of the CA coast, that create huge differences within the distance of a brief walk sometimes, require local knowledge and tools that are probably not found elsewhere. I sometimes see AFDs from NWS SFO/Monterey that talk about local tools for winds and fog. We have very very few CA posters in this subforum.

[nrgjeff]

I used to forecast for California. Oakland is more sensitive to the marine layer than other parts of the East Bay. Oakland is still right on the Bay. Plus the flow through the mouth of the Bay heads toward Oakland. Usually Oakland is cooler than points south, on both sides of the Bay. OAK may be even more challenging than SFO because OAK is so sensitive to wind direction. I find graphical model output useful to discern synoptic and even mesoscale cues. Look for coastal trough location.

Carlsbad CA also requires a good marine layer forecast. I found Southern California more forgiving than Northern California, but everyone is different. I found when a Catalina Eddy spins up, the marine layer is deeper (and faster) than modeled. Fortunately one can forecast the eddy pattern even if the models miss the mesoscale. Too much to write here, but basically it is a little lift/PVA with north/northwest winds curling around the transverse mountain ranges to the north (San Gabriel Mtns back thru Ventura/Santa Barbara Counties).

On the other extreme, offshore heat regime, again look for the coastal trough on graphical output. I found SoCal would get one more hot day than MOS showed as offshore winds relaxed. However that was years ago; MOS might have improved. Also applies more to coastal valleys than for right on the coast.

I understand Southern California heat slightly under-achieved last week. The ridge was so far north the Pacific Northwest over-achieved. Upper ridge position also helps a lot. Water vapor satellite was my BFF when forecasting for Calif. Water vapor helps see things upstream over the ocean.

[weatherwiz]

On 7/31/2018 at 3:12 PM, mayjawintastawm said:

Don't know much about Reno, but I do know that the microclimates around the Bay area and really much of the CA coast, that create huge differences within the distance of a brief walk sometimes, require local knowledge and tools that are probably not found elsewhere. I sometimes see AFDs from NWS SFO/Monterey that talk about local tools for winds and fog. We have very very few CA posters in this subforum.

 

On 8/2/2018 at 1:05 PM, nrgjeff said:

I used to forecast for California. Oakland is more sensitive to the marine layer than other parts of the East Bay. Oakland is still right on the Bay. Plus the flow through the mouth of the Bay heads toward Oakland. Usually Oakland is cooler than points south, on both sides of the Bay. OAK may be even more challenging than SFO because OAK is so sensitive to wind direction. I find graphical model output useful to discern synoptic and even mesoscale cues. Look for coastal trough location.

Carlsbad CA also requires a good marine layer forecast. I found Southern California more forgiving than Northern California, but everyone is different. I found when a Catalina Eddy spins up, the marine layer is deeper (and faster) than modeled. Fortunately one can forecast the eddy pattern even if the models miss the mesoscale. Too much to write here, but basically it is a little lift/PVA with north/northwest winds curling around the transverse mountain ranges to the north (San Gabriel Mtns back thru Ventura/Santa Barbara Counties).

On the other extreme, offshore heat regime, again look for the coastal trough on graphical output. I found SoCal would get one more hot day than MOS showed as offshore winds relaxed. However that was years ago; MOS might have improved. Also applies more to coastal valleys than for right on the coast.

I understand Southern California heat slightly under-achieved last week. The ridge was so far north the Pacific Northwest over-achieved. Upper ridge position also helps a lot. Water vapor satellite was my BFF when forecasting for Calif. Water vapor helps see things upstream over the ocean.

I appreciate the wonderful information! This all was extremely useful. I totally understand there is so much more than this and the detail you could go into is better suited for a book but I can certainly use the information you provided here to really enhance my knowledge of forecasting for these areas. Thanks again!

[nrgjeff]

Our pleasure. The book Weather of Southern California by Harry P. Bailey is a gem. The book has been out a while but it is still applicable. Since it is an overview of weather patterns and geography (vs every changing models) it remains useful. Book emphasis is Southern California but I think it touches on the whole state. It is a little orange book. Enjoy!