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August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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The WAR continues to beat long range forecast expectations. We keep adding 90 degree or warmer days when the long range forecast looked cooler. The normal Newark split for 8-15 is 84/68. So we will boost the monthly warm departure for the rest of this week.

Old day 10 EPS forecast

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.thumb.png.c98980414f3619cf1af2c98022f2d9e6.png

Current short range forecast

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_4.thumb.png.8866543063c2a9a701774aa06babe5c4.png

 

 

 

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We'll see how hot we go the next 3 maybe 4 days starting Wed, pending on timing with front saturday and then stronger system potentially sunday.  But 850s look to peak around 21-22C Thu pm into friday.  

 

Guessing max:
PHL: 97
EWR: 96
TTN: 95
LGA: 94
NYC: 91 (even with the foot of rain)

Beyond there signal for next surge of heat on/around 8/24.  

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30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Actual 60s this morning

LGA is keeping the above 70 degree streak going. Monday was the 23rd consecutive day which is the 5th highest number of days on record. 

#1...34 days .....2006

#2...32 days......1980

#3...28 days......2010

#4...24 days......1999...1995

#5...23 days.....2018...1988

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

LGA is keeping the above 70 degree streak going. Monday was day 23 which is the 5th highest number of days on record.

#1...34 days .....2006

#2...32 days......1980

#3...28 days......2010

#4...24 days......1999...1995

#5...23 days.....2018...1988

Blue - this is continuous right?  Whats the total (top 5) number of 70+ lows?  Ill have to find uncs for the park and dig into EWR.

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9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Blue - this is continuous right?  Whats the total (top 5) number of 70+ lows?  Ill have to find uncs for the park and dig into EWR.

Yes, 23 consecutive days and counting for LGA. Monday was the 46th day this year at LGA with a 70 or warmer minimum. That is the 5th highest number of days by August 13th.

Most LGA days with a 70 degree or warmer minimum through August 13th:

#1...54 days....2010

#2...52 days....2012

#3...51 days....2006

#4...47 days....2013...2005

#5...46 days...2018

 

The total number of 90 degree or warmer days ranks a little higher by August 13th. 26 days through August 13th ranks in 4th place.

#1...38 days....2010

#2...28 days....2002

#3..27 days.....1949

#4..26 days.....2018...2012..1999...1955

 

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The WAR continues to beat long range forecast expectations. We keep adding 90 degree or warmer days when the long range forecast looked cooler. The normal Newark split for 8-15 is 84/68. So we will boost the monthly warm departure for the rest of this week.

Old day 10 EPS forecast

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.thumb.png.c98980414f3619cf1af2c98022f2d9e6.png

Current short range forecast

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_4.thumb.png.8866543063c2a9a701774aa06babe5c4.png

 

 

 

I would expect snow threats to continue the NW trend this winter like we saw last winter. This seems to be an on going situation rather then a short term trend. 

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35 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would expect snow threats to continue the NW trend this winter like we saw last winter. This seems to be an on going situation rather then a short term trend. 

It's our friend when the teleconnections and temperatures support snow. But record warmth runs the table  when the teleconnections favor a strong WAR like Dec 15 and Feb 18. That's how we have been getting these recent winters with extremes of warmth and snow.

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today was the 14th day in a row with a min 70 or higher to start August...the record is 18 set in 1988...NYC has 38 days with a min 70 or higher so far...since 1930 NYC is averaging almost 33 days with a min 70 or higher and a consecutive streak of almost 9....the 1950's and 60's had the lowest amounts...that was probably due to some dry summers...1962 had only 8 such days...2005 had 60///records are 61 in 1906...8 in 1962...

year total min 70+ consecutive 70+

1930..........26............8

1931..........34............7

1932..........25............6

1933..........33............6

1934..........26............4

1935..........29..........11

1936..........20............4

1937..........28............6

1938..........34..........12

1939..........44..........13.......29.9.........7.7

1940..........24............8

1941..........27............6

1942..........20............4

1943..........30............4

1944..........41..........14

1945..........29............4

1946..........11............3

1947..........30............5

1948..........29............6

1949..........43..........10......32.4........6.4

1950..........13............5

1951..........23............7

1952..........38..........12

1953..........34..........10

1954..........18............5

1955..........45..........13

1956..........20............5

1957..........31............5

1958..........26............4

1959..........46..........10......29.4.......7.3

1960..........20............5

1961..........42............9

1962............8............2

1963..........14............5

1964..........19............4

1965..........17............4

1966..........40..........11

1967..........17............5

1968..........29............6

1969..........33............6......23.9.......5.7

1970..........37..........10

1971..........45............9

1972..........30..........15

1973..........37..........11

1974..........26............3

1975..........23..........12

1976..........24............4

1977..........37............9

1978..........31..........13

1979..........42..........17......33.2......10.3

1980..........52..........22

1981..........39............8

1982..........30..........12

1983..........45..........13

1984..........40..........16

1985..........34............6

1986..........31............4

1987..........32............7

1988..........42..........21

1989..........28............5......37.3.....11.4

1990..........32............8

1991..........31............7

1992..........14............4

1993..........35..........10

1994..........35............9

1995..........39..........18

1996..........22............5

1997..........27............8

1998..........39..........11

1999..........45..........13......31.9.......9.3

2000..........22............4

2001..........30............9

2002..........43............9

2003..........33..........15

2004..........28............6

2005..........60..........14

2006..........41..........15

2007..........35............8

2008..........35............8

2009..........18............5.....34.5.......9.3

2010..........54..........22

2011..........40............9

2012..........47..........10

2013..........51..........19

2015..........33............9

2016..........51..........16

2017..........44............7.....45.7.....13.1

2018..........38..........13 as of 8/13.....

 

1876..........46..........14

1906..........61..........17

1908..........54..........16

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Rare combination of top 10 warmest temperatures and rainfall for August 1-14 across the area. 

Station...T rank....P rank

EWR......6th...10th

NYC......12th...6th

LGA.......3rd....6th

JFK.......9th....5th

ISP.......3rd.....6th

HPN.....4th.......5th

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