Rtd208 Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 August looks to start out warm, humid and stormy with more flooding possible. Post them here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 My prediction for August is +2 to +3. In fact my prediction is the same for S,O,N,D. Sneaky things may happen with change in wavelengths during the winter. The period Aug. 21 to Sept. 05 record heat for the time frame and a TS to boot. Support by RWTT, CFS and CANSIPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 7 minutes ago, CIK62 said: My prediction for August is +2 to +3. In fact my prediction is the same for S,O,N,D. Sneaky things may happen with change in wavelengths during the winter. The period Aug. 21 to Sept. 05 record heat for the time frame and a TS to boot. Support by RWTT, CFS and CANSIPS. I think the one likelihood in my opinion is wetter than normal. Despite that its been overall warmer than normal. Closer in - the next period to watch as WC ridge may get beat east for a bit, is 8/4 - 8/12 for more widespread heat. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Continuation of our atypical Florida summer pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Anyone buying all the 100's the GFS has on sale for the first half of August? Will it get its revenge after its July bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Am I seeing a more zonal-looking flow in the upper levels starting around 8/8? Maybe shifting out of this pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Another surge of tropical dew points as we move into August. With the WAR expanding to the west, we'll get some 90's to go with the high humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 Terrific, i dont feel as bad going to miami august 9 to 13... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 The first week of August already averaging 82degs., or 5degs. AN. The first two weeks of August are a LOCK for AN temperatures as we give up some precipitation due to a nossy SEAtlantic Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 8 hours ago, bluewave said: Another surge of tropical dew points as we move into August. With the WAR expanding to the west, we'll get some 90's to go with the high humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Kind of an interesting day Wednesday... We'll likely get the standard warm advection storms late tonight into the morning. The activity late tonight will initially be a little bit elevated, but by morning we'll quickly erode the low-level CINH and develop some surface-based instability. There may be a narrow window for surface-based storms across central and eventually northern NJ/NYC/extreme southern NY between like 7am-12pm (moving south to north). Low LCLs, 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, and 100-200 m2/s2 effective SRH will be supportive of rotating storms and perhaps a marginal tornado risk. Most of the Northeast tornadoes seem to be surprise stuff with marginal parameters in the morning, so something is possible. The HRRR solution is slower in lifting those storms north and likely allows them to become surface based across N NJ/towards NYC...the best shot of WAA is a little earlier, so not sure they're quite that slow...but if they are, I do think they'd be supercells with some sort of tornado risk by late morning/early afternoon. There should be a window in the early to mid-afternoon of some heating, and with a ton of low-level moisture, it won't take a whole lot of heating to get 1000-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE. The CAPE profiles look tall and skinny thanks to atrociously weak lapse rates, but that should still be enough for some decent storms during the late-afternoon and evening. With 30-40 knots of bulk shear and over 100 m2/s2 of effective SRH still through the evening...perhaps even ramping up a bit during the evening as the LLJ ramps up a bit...shear is certainly supportive for anything to be organized and possibly rotating during the late-afternoon and evening. There's no real cap or anything, but forcing also looks pretty weak this far east. Best chances may be from extreme NW NJ (and possibly a little farther west of that) into southern NY in the evening, though if anything were to develop farther east there'd be some sort of gusty wind/weak tornado risk. If the morning activity leaves any sort of boundary that could perhaps be some sort of focus farther east. I tend to agree with the slight risk being a bit northwest of the bulk of this region...though the morning stuff will definitely have to be watched, with sufficient low-level helicity and low LCLs, it won't take much for a weak tornado with any surface-based storms. The evening stuff I'm more meh on, but I'd rather be in NW NJ than closer to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 1 hour ago, OHweather said: Kind of an interesting day Wednesday... We'll likely get the standard warm advection storms late tonight into the morning. The activity late tonight will initially be a little bit elevated, but by morning we'll quickly erode the low-level CINH and develop some surface-based instability. There may be a narrow window for surface-based storms across central and eventually northern NJ/NYC/extreme southern NY between like 7am-12pm (moving south to north). Low LCLs, 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, and 100-200 m2/s2 effective SRH will be supportive of rotating storms and perhaps a marginal tornado risk. Most of the Northeast tornadoes seem to be surprise stuff with marginal parameters in the morning, so something is possible. The HRRR solution is slower in lifting those storms north and likely allows them to become surface based across N NJ/towards NYC...the best shot of WAA is a little earlier, so not sure they're quite that slow...but if they are, I do think they'd be supercells with some sort of tornado risk by late morning/early afternoon. There should be a window in the early to mid-afternoon of some heating, and with a ton of low-level moisture, it won't take a whole lot of heating to get 1000-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE. The CAPE profiles look tall and skinny thanks to atrociously weak lapse rates, but that should still be enough for some decent storms during the late-afternoon and evening. With 30-40 knots of bulk shear and over 100 m2/s2 of effective SRH still through the evening...perhaps even ramping up a bit during the evening as the LLJ ramps up a bit...shear is certainly supportive for anything to be organized and possibly rotating during the late-afternoon and evening. There's no real cap or anything, but forcing also looks pretty weak this far east. Best chances may be from extreme NW NJ (and possibly a little farther west of that) into southern NY in the evening, though if anything were to develop farther east there'd be some sort of gusty wind/weak tornado risk. If the morning activity leaves any sort of boundary that could perhaps be some sort of focus farther east. I tend to agree with the slight risk being a bit northwest of the bulk of this region...though the morning stuff will definitely have to be watched, with sufficient low-level helicity and low LCLs, it won't take much for a weak tornado with any surface-based storms. The evening stuff I'm more meh on, but I'd rather be in NW NJ than closer to NYC. Great to have you as part of our subforum OHweather! It is well known that around these parts that warm fronts in the morning have some of our best storms. I think this has good potential. Attached is a sounding of the latest HRRR in New Jersey at 16Z. Check out those LCL's! Overall 3k Nam is a bit similar. This could be a good shot of severe around here as for the mid morning to early afternoon timeframe. At least were not going to watch storms weakening as they travel from west to east as they tend to do most of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 7 hours ago, Ace said: Great to have you as part of our subforum OHweather! It is well known that around these parts that warm fronts in the morning have some of our best storms. I think this has good potential. Attached is a sounding of the latest HRRR in New Jersey at 16Z. Check out those LCL's! Overall 3k Nam is a bit similar. This could be a good shot of severe around here as for the mid morning to early afternoon timeframe. At least were not going to watch storms weakening as they travel from west to east as they tend to do most of the time Yeah I’m impressed with the soundings. And when you have a strong low-level shear (this could be stronger but it’s enough) and low LCL combo it definitely doesn’t take a ton to get a tornado. Just need to get surface based storms...which we should get but the instability may be a little slower to come up than what the HRRR shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 1, 2018 Author Share Posted August 1, 2018 New SPC Day 1 Outlook https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 1, 2018 Author Share Posted August 1, 2018 Looks like a decent area of rain/storms moving in from the southwest which could produce some localized flooding. Just about on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 shower blew up over me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 82degs, or 5degs. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Not impressed with the radar but Hrrr and soundings still support a morning threat over the next 4 to 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 13 hours ago, NortheastPAWx said: Another day with 75 or higher maximum dew points at JFK this year. The current 76 degree dew point at JFK ties the 3rd highest yearly amount at 18 days. We have never seen 3 consecutive years with 17+ days before. The 2010's continue to redefine what is possible around here. JFK annual highest number of maxium dew point days of 75 degrees or higher #1....24....1983 #2....19....2016 #3....18....2018...1999 #4....17....2017...1995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Pretty meh radar so far. Parameters are in place in central NJ but just no decent storms yet. We'll see if it picks up at all the rest of this morning. If not it'll just be a disgustingly humid day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 storms trying to pop over nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Cape on the increase. Forcing was looking like an issue, but small cells are popping in New Jersey. Timing may be a bit off though, since the most conductive parameters for rotation may came an hour or 2 after storms roll though. I'm thinking SE NY should get the best storms in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 1, 2018 Author Share Posted August 1, 2018 Current temp 76/DP 74/RH 91% Another month to go then we start the decline into the fall/winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 More big rains in areas that don't need them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 27 minutes ago, Ace said: Cape on the increase. Forcing was looking like an issue, but small cells are popping in New Jersey. Timing may be a bit off though, since the most conductive parameters for rotation may came an hour or 2 after storms roll though. I'm thinking SE NY should get the best storms in a couple of hours. I'm heading up to the Yonkers area for now. Probably end up further north but if there will be severe weather I think it will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 ...hoping to salvage a beach day today on my day off..looks pretty bad now but clearing skies seem to be heading north bound from the ocean..(need that goes-16 satellite SACRUS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, tim said: ...hoping to salvage a beach day today on my day off..looks pretty bad now but clearing skies seem to be heading north bound from the ocean..(need that goes-16 satellite SACRUS). Starting to get some breaks of sun now here in SW Suffolk. A very humid 77/75. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GOES_NE/loop60.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Starting to get some breaks of sun now here n SW Suffolk. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GOES_NE/loop60.html same here...looks partly sunny later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: same here...looks partly sunny later Another close to 600 dm WAR building in next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 These dew points are absolutely stupid. 76/75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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