August 2018 General Discussion

[CheeselandSkies]

lol, they put the area in a marginal risk then 13 minutes later issue a severe thunderstorm watch. Quite low probabilities in that watch, too. Honestly not sure why they issued it.

[Chicago Storm]

That was a terrible watch issuance. One of the worst I've seen in years.

[Chicago Storm]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah we'll see.  Current motion would bring it toward ORD, so the question is how robust it (and outflow) is by then.

Outflow and light rains just west of ORD have dropped temps back into the mid 70's, so it likely won't make it.

[CoalCityWxMan]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

That was a terrible watch issuance. One of the worst I've seen in years.

I don’t recall seeing a watch being issued for probabilities this low in a long time lol

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

That was a terrible watch issuance. One of the worst I've seen in years.

Yeah, no other way to say it.  I can't really remember seeing a watch issued and then the entire thing getting cancelled less than 90 minutes later.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Outflow and light rains just west of ORD have dropped temps back into the mid 70's, so it likely won't make it.

Indeed, ORD has dropped into the mid 70s.

[snowlover2]

21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, no other way to say it.  I can't really remember seeing a watch issued and then the entire thing getting cancelled less than 90 minutes later.

SPC has had a rough year especially with the convective outlooks. I think there's been around 5 moderate areas issued and maybe 1 somewhat verified. Then there was the unexpected MCS/Derecho that hit IA and dropped south through W IL with initially only a marginal which they eventually upped to slight. That needed an enhanced area at the very least. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Don't forget the tornado outbreak that hit Iowa with four EF2+ on July 19 with a 2% area in place until it was already underway.

To be fair, the setups have been kind of subtle/conditional. But still even I as a rank amateur thought there was a good chance July 19th would overperform the outlook looking at conditions that morning. Unfortunately because the quality of the setup wasn't apparent until then, I hadn't scheduled time off and had to work until noon, then a social obligation later in the afternoon. Reading this and some other forums that day, I wasn't the only one who had alarm bells go off in their head when we saw the clearing ahead of that triple point, combined with the HRRR and 3K NAM consistently depicting discrete convection with strong updraft helicity tracks for later in the day.

Honestly I feel the SPC should be the best in the business of forecasting short to medium range severe convective weather events, after all that is their one and only mission. If they are indeed the best we've got, maybe the science hasn't come as far as we think.

[Powerball]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, no other way to say it.  I can't really remember seeing a watch issued and then the entire thing getting cancelled less than 90 minutes later.

I recall that happening with a tornado watch in Michigan back in 2006.

I think it happened during the same event as that long-track tornadic supercell that tracked from Iowa to SW Michigan during the overnight time hours.

A second round was poised for the following day, but as usual, the widespread strong t'storms all morning completely worked over the atmosphere.

The best that came out of that watch was an isolated fast-moving heavy rain shower, lol. I think ON_WX has the failure that was the SPC outlook for that day in his avatar

 

 

 

[hawkeye_wx]

Thankfully, the storms sank far enough south overnight to get Cedar Rapids.  I picked up 1.23".  I had only received 0.31" over the last 16 days and the next ten days look dry, so this is much-needed.

[Chinook]

This heavy rain provided a soaking for northern Iowa, but conveniently missed the drought area  in southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

[bowtie`]

Rain hanging out just to my north. All that is doing is putting the humidity into the "I Can't Believe It's Not Butter", range. Dewpoint is around 74 or 75 degrees.

[Chinook]

Out of all those storms, some areas of Northwest Ohio got 2-4" of rain yesterday. This means that the Toledo area got 2-3" (1.5" + 1.5") or possibly more since July 30th. I am not sure if the cornfields need 3-4" of rain all at the same time, but here is Williams County, OH.

[IWXwx]

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
0132 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2018

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT CHICAGO-OHARE...

 A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.36 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT CHICAGO-OHARE 
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.06 SET IN 1982.

[Stebo]

This didn't get much press, but there was some catastrophic flooding in and around downtown Toronto last night. Twitter is loaded with a lot of images across the city.

[Stebo]

 

[Hoosier]

There is a tiny spot of D4 on the Drought Monitor in Missouri.  Not 100% sure but I think that is the first time D4 has appeared in the Midwest since the summer of 2012.

[Chinook]

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There is a tiny spot of D4 on the Drought Monitor in Missouri.  Not 100% sure but I think that is the first time D4 has appeared in the Midwest since the summer of 2012.

You are partly right. The last time >0.01% D4 status happened in the Midwest sector was 3/5/2013, a hold-over from the summer of 2012.

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Chinook said:

You are partly right. The last time >0.01% D4 status happened in the Midwest sector was 3/5/2013, a hold-over from the summer of 2012.

It would be nice if there was a way to search by category... like you select D4 and it shows you all the maps that have had D4.  (Edit: after poking around, just found how to sort by category) 

Pretty significant 6 month precip deficits out in that area of Missouri

[Stebo]

This month marks the 40th anniversary for Tom Skilling at WGN. There were times growing up where I would watch WGN just to see his forecast even though I live here in Detroit. He was one of the best meteorologists out there with a wealth of experience and knowledge. Such a great achievement to be at one station for so many years. Here is a little highlight video from WGN's Facebook page.

 

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, Stebo said:

This month marks the 40th anniversary for Tom Skilling at WGN. There were times growing up where I would watch WGN just to see his forecast even though I live here in Detroit. He was one of the best meteorologists out there with a wealth of experience and knowledge. Such a great achievement to be at one station for so many years. Here is a little highlight video from WGN's Facebook page.

 

Tom is an icon.  I don't know how many other mets have a weather segment as long as his (easily 5-6 minutes long from what I recall).  I think FOX or some other Chicago affiliate tried to pry him away from WGN a while back but it's hard to picture him anywhere else.

[Hoosier]

Hey, I remembered

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2000-08-29/business/0008290072_1_tom-skilling-fox-offer-weather

[Chicago Storm]

89 ORD and 91 MDW yesterday.

Seems like that 2-3" of rain that occurred at and around ORD on Wednesday knocked a few degrees off of highs there, compared other immediate metro sites.

[iluvsnow]

Well....you know the seasons are changing....tomorrow Saturday August 11th....Joe Bastardi....that touchstone of emotion for us weather geeks....posts his first winter outlook in his Saturday video on Weatherbell. Any guess on what his forecast will be? Ha! Ha!

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, iluvsnow said:

Well....you know the seasons are changing....tomorrow Saturday August 11th....Joe Bastardi....that touchstone of emotion for us weather geeks....posts his first winter outlook in his Saturday video on Weatherbell. Any guess on what his forecast will be? Ha! Ha!

Cold and snowy for the east for the 40th time in a row.

[luckyweather]

Well....you know the seasons are changing....tomorrow Saturday August 11th....Joe Bastardi....that touchstone of emotion for us weather geeks....posts his first winter outlook in his Saturday video on Weatherbell. Any guess on what his forecast will be? Ha! Ha!

 

70% nino probs by winter, make your call on his forecast accordingly.

[binovc]

Just watched it like Stebo says cold and stormy for the east.

[Torchageddon]

On 8/3/2018 at 8:23 PM, Torchageddon said:

For the last several weeks there have been more days than not with storm chances here in southern Ontario. I get a kick out of seeing the forecast knowing nothing like a storm will hit me. I've heard maybe a rumble here and there but even that I'd say less than 5 rumbles for all of 2018 so far...not joking! One of the most impressive weather streaks is still ongoing of no thunderstorms to date IMBY for 2018!!! August 3!! A few weeks ago that was comedy, now its a rule of thumb! I've been watching for months now the storms just skirt or fizzle out around me every.single.time.... Today there was a much higher chance for local storms and there were some very slow moving cells (lots of lightning) north slowly inching down over the afternoon and then more formation closer started bringing darker skies and threatening weather. Probably within walking distance rain was falling but no rain, one rumble, and the closest lightning was just out of range by a mile or two...the shield was up. I was really starting to wonder if my bubble was ready to burst; it didn't.

The streak is still going, a storm basically formed just to my south/east and I heard a few dozen quality rumbles with dark skies. Its the 2nd time in 48 hours we had an extremely close cell that formed less than 1 km away from MBY. Shield was up. Just outside of town it was wet and progressively moreso. The temperature gradient was incredible, 25ºC where I was and just a few km east it was 17ºC at one spot!! As you were driving you could see the thermostat increase like the odometer would . Once in the mid 20s I could feel the heat instantly and got rather warm in a hurry. That brings me to my next observation:

The forecast or news story this weekend was for the humidity to break and for the weekend to be very nice and dry. This was from TWN. Well Friday certainly was and in rare fashion it was 29ºC dead on without a humidex. Come today the humidity came right back and feels hot. The indices are 6ºC higher than the air temperature and golly gee whiz TWN busted for the thousandth time. Tomorrow's forecast is the same. Somehow TWN even managed to get something that close and that broad incorrect!! The story that had that dead wrong headline is now "mysteriously" gone like that "pattern change" that they pimped for over half of July that obviously never happened except increased moisture. On that note, this is a great summer for sunshine and I'm really benefiting from it...hate those cloudy days!

On 8/8/2018 at 6:59 PM, Stebo said:

This didn't get much press, but there was some catastrophic flooding in and around downtown Toronto last night. Twitter is loaded with a lot of images across the city.

Toronto's big disasters always occur in August. Their costliest supercells and flooding have happened during this month.

On 8/10/2018 at 5:53 PM, iluvsnow said:

Well....you know the seasons are changing....tomorrow Saturday August 11th....Joe Bastardi....that touchstone of emotion for us weather geeks....posts his first winter outlook in his Saturday video on Weatherbell. Any guess on what his forecast will be? Ha! Ha!

I don't want to give ole Joe anymore attention but I still remember his prediction for summer 2012: cold. Hey Joe, how is that cold summer coming along? - July 28, 2012.

[buckeye]

On 8/10/2018 at 5:53 PM, iluvsnow said:

Well....you know the seasons are changing....tomorrow Saturday August 11th....Joe Bastardi....that touchstone of emotion for us weather geeks....posts his first winter outlook in his Saturday video on Weatherbell. Any guess on what his forecast will be? Ha! Ha!

Like trying to look away as you drive by a terrible car accident....I failed.   Yea, cold and snowy over the eastern half with the epicenter over the TN valley and fading out from around that.    Translation:  congrats lakes and new england.     I expect the "delayed but not denied" card making it's appearance in early January.

[Hoosier]

From LOT

A discussion in the office this morning about recent rainfall trends and the relative condition of our lawns (crunchy in Plainfield versus lush and green in nearby Naperville) prompted a look at two-week observed totals across a wider area. The stark contrast between northwest Will County and southern DuPage County certainly is evident, even across such a short distance. In general northwest Indiana and portions of northern Illinois north of I-88 have seen considerable rainfall these past two weeks, at least compared to the area roughly south of I-88 and west of I-57. Even within the areas of larger rainfall totals there have been pockets that received quite a bit less. The latest forecast suggests a low pressure system moving through the region toward midweek could bring at least some relief to the drier areas.