Examining the Top Five Cape Cod Snowstorms of the last 29 years

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As for the bold above ...that's another discussion venture entirely, but just in brief, ...we've been handing out double-digit snow events like pez candies over the last ...well, two decades at this point. 

Will mentioned (as I did in my own way...) how 1992 sort of ear-marked a changing of the guard... Putrid dearth winters since then have been less frequent. Obviously ...there are exceptions to that rule - hence the word, "averaged" ...  2012 leaps to mind. 1994-1995...  But by and large, it's been 20 years since we've put together "strings" of bad winters... The outliers under-performances seemed to come back the next year and start correcting right away. 

We've covered this before...and it's true.  Eventually, the law of averages will come back to bite us... so we think. There is however, a caveat to that model - ...we are in a climate flux...so the statistically derived standards/climate reliance gets a bit shaky compared to a more stable regime spanning many years.  

Farmington gets more snow than BGR - no surprise there - averaging about 90" to BGR's low 70s.  The Farmington co-op has recorded storms 10"+ in 86% of its 126 years of record, 12"+ in 66%, 14"+ in 44%, 16"+ in 31%, 18"+ in 23%, 20"+ in 14%.  They've had 6 winters with 2 storms 18"+, 4 in this millennium starting with Feb-Mar 2001.  (Other 2 are 43-44 and 68-69.)

My one bad "streak" here lasted only 3 years, 01-02 thru 03-04, each with 75-80% of avg but no real stinkers like 15-16.  Addressing the last paragraph quoted, places where met winter temps average well below 32 are progged to have increased average snowfall due to more precip, even though the snow season may contract in length.  That's what many climate models point toward, but another facet (modeled and IMO) is increased variability, such that we're more likely to get mega-ratters and mega-snowtastics. 

SSS (20 winters), but I can see a significant increase in snowfall at my place.  My 20-year average is 90.0" and 98-99 thru 05-06 averaged only 80.45", with 6 of 8 ranging 11"-37" BN, one 4" AN, and 00-01 with 137.1".  The 12 winters since have averaged 96.32" (median is 101") with 3 BN, one avg (actually 0.4" AN but one more good winter and that becomes BN) and 8 AN, 7 of those bringing 100.5" to 142.3".  Not sure if that 20% increase over the 1st 8 winters is significant, given the short period of record, but it's been fun.

[Typhoon Tip]

I was just reconnoitering with the February 9-10, 1987 debacle over the old charts over at the NCEP Libary web-source, and come to think about it, that's the first time. All these years -  

Not a huge venture in guess work to surmise why I've neglected to do so, what, with that horror story above... Sufficed it is to say, I never have.. But now, as an indoctrinated Meteorologist ...replete with education and years of wisdom, combined with a spate of morbid curiosity ... I've doubled up on anti-nausea, donned in a hazmat suit, and dived into the infamy of the 1987 debacle.  Here's what I'm seeing.

If the February 7 and February 8 charts stored on NCEP's web server (DJVU) were the actual modeled depictions, I feel pretty confident that if I saw that setup this winter I'd be hoisting red flags... Probably in the midst of the same fervor it generated back whence, too  There were problems... 

For one, on the 8th, ...there was a strong N stream short-wave passing tastily through the Lakes... However, it's trajectory was ESE, not SE ... That angle of descent in latitude is critical...particularly, when enters the next observation. 

The short-wave ridging component of the total wave mechanical space was not very impressive... This necessary aspect was comparatively flat passing over NE.  It might have been ( look out toward Nova Scotia) a small amount of destructive wave interference being imposed by a lead S/W near Nova Scotia....probably in conflict with said S/W ridging.  As such, those mechanics couldn't roll up and help to enforce a slow down and further west wave break with the GL wave. 

These two were red flags for an east bump with that system...

A third less obvious ... the entire flow had just maintained a subtle progressive aspect.  The clue to that is the western heights were integrated in latitude, but they were not exceptionally anomalously tall.. Flow orientation is only part of the amplitude equation..  

Now, these aspects may not have been actually "modeled" that way... In defense of staffers at the time, the models may have been routinely showing more meridional bias with regard to the handling of the flow - we have to keep in mind, these are verified/observed 12z and 00z surface and mid level features I am referring too. 

I just get the 'feeling' that considering the evolution of modeling technology/capacitance ... rooting that back to heredity of that era, I bet dimes to donuts that what the models were doing was routinely, albeit slightly, overly 'digging' the trough.  This would have been a nasty double-cross, too... because that lead interfering S/W near N/S described above...prooobably would have escaped further E and ... 'left matters alone' if the following wave mechanics were descending to a deeper latitude.. 

Just a hunch...  otherwise, if those days were actually on the models that way, I most likely would be worried about going gang-busters.. As it were... we can't really discount the storm, as it was particularly impacting ...albeit over a scale so small any "NESDIS" rating would essentially be mere decimals.  

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the closest negative bust we had in SNE to those '87 and '89 storms in modern times (with modern model guidance) was probably 2/10/10. Just about everyone was expecting a big storm....not necessarily a blockbuster, but something in the range of 8-12" or so. When I woke to the shredded radar returns and barely 2" of new snow OTG outside, I knew something was "wrong". It brought back those feelings of dread from childhood. I think I finished with 2.5" in that despite a robust winter storm warning. I remember pulling the plug on my own forecast about mid-morning once it was apparent there would be no "late comeback".

The Dec 19-20, 2009 storm busted pretty bad in some spots too...mostly out toward the CT River valley. For them, that was probably a lot like those late '80s busts where the southeast and "dry air" solutions are winning the battle. I think many out there got absolutely nothing despite winter storm warnings 6 hours to the onset.

2 inches in Springfield down by Longmeadow but 8-9 inches by the time one got to thevsouth end of Hartford CT

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

2 inches in Springfield down by Longmeadow but 8-9 inches by the time one got to thevsouth end of Hartford CT

Right, and I think just north of CEF got almost nada. It was brutal dry air funneling down the valley.

 

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just reconnoitering with the February 9-10, 1987 debacle over the old charts over at the NCEP Libary web-source, and come to think about it, that's the first time. All these years -  

Not a huge venture in guess work to surmise why I've neglected to do so, what, with that horror story above... Sufficed it is to say, I never have.. But now, as an indoctrinated Meteorologist ...replete with education and years of wisdom, combined with a spate of morbid curiosity ... I've doubled up on anti-nausea, donned in a hazmat suit, and dived into the infamy of the 1987 debacle.  Here's what I'm seeing.

If the February 7 and February 8 charts stored on NCEP's web server (DJVU) were the actual modeled depictions, I feel pretty confident that if I saw that setup this winter I'd be hoisting red flags... Probably in the midst of the same fervor it generated back whence, too  There were problems... 

For one, on the 8th, ...there was a strong N stream short-wave passing tastily through the Lakes... However, it's trajectory was ESE, not SE ... That angle of descent in latitude is critical...particularly, when enters the next observation. 

The short-wave ridging component of the total wave mechanical space was not very impressive... This necessary aspect was comparatively flat passing over NE.  It might have been ( look out toward Nova Scotia) a small amount of destructive wave interference being imposed by a lead S/W near Nova Scotia....probably in conflict with said S/W ridging.  As such, those mechanics couldn't roll up and help to enforce a slow down and further west wave break with the GL wave. 

These two were red flags for an east bump with that system...

A third less obvious ... the entire flow had just maintained a subtle progressive aspect.  The clue to that is the western heights were integrated in latitude, but they were not exceptionally anomalously tall.. Flow orientation is only part of the amplitude equation..  

Now, these aspects may not have been actually "modeled" that way... In defense of staffers at the time, the models may have been routinely showing more meridional bias with regard to the handling of the flow - we have to keep in mind, these are verified/observed 12z and 00z surface and mid level features I am referring too. 

I just get the 'feeling' that considering the evolution of modeling technology/capacitance ... rooting that back to heredity of that era, I bet dimes to donuts that what the models were doing was routinely, albeit slightly, overly 'digging' the trough.  This would have been a nasty double-cross, too... because that lead interfering S/W near N/S described above...prooobably would have escaped further E and ... 'left matters alone' if the following wave mechanics were descending to a deeper latitude.. 

Just a hunch...  otherwise, if those days were actually on the models that way, I most likely would be worried about going gang-busters.. 

Yeah, I'm looking at it on NARR ewall site:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0208.php
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0209.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0210.php

I'm also not a fan of how neutrally tilted the trough still is when it passes south of BUF/PIT line. You'd like to see this going negative pretty fast. It tries to...but as it does, it get "pinched" off from the flow and almost goes due east instead of whip-sawing NE on the other side. Like you, I agree that the model guidance back then probably held the whole thing together for a longer period allowing that pendulum to swing NE more...but in reality, it got kind of pinched off and moved more east before it swung more N.

 

You're right about that wave spacing too...a little tight there with the lead northern stream wave in Nova Scotia.

[codfishsnowman]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Right, and I think just north of CEF got almost nada. It was brutal dry air funneling down the valley.

 

Yeah, I'm looking at it on NARR ewall site:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0208.php
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0209.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0210.php

I'm also not a fan of how neutrally tilted the trough still is when it passes south of BUF/PIT line. You'd like to see this going negative pretty fast. It tries to...but as it does, it get "pinched" off from the flow and almost goes due east instead of whip-sawing NE on the other side. Like you, I agree that the model guidance back then probably held the whole thing together for a longer period allowing that pendulum to swing NE more...but in reality, it got kind of pinched off and moved more east before it swung more N.

 

You're right about that wave spacing too...a little tight there with the lead northern stream wave in Nova Scotia.

correct for 12/2009 event

I remember the 2/87 event I was just a snow crazy kid in 7th grade but I remember thinking the day and evening before it just seemed so cold and dry and even that evening there wasn't much high cloud cover....it just seemed to good to be true...back in central ct we had an inch of wind blown powder

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

correct for 12/2009 event

I remember the 2/87 event I was just a snow crazy kid in 7th grade but I remember thinking the day and evening before it just seemed so cold and dry and even that evening there wasn't much high cloud cover....it just seemed to good to be true...back in central ct we had an inch of wind blown powder

My middle school years were '93-'95 so it was hard to find too many busts during that set of winters. Even the putrid '94-'95 didn't have much of any busts...it was so bad, we didn't even have threats. Just the one big storm on 2/4/95 (which was a good one). But '93-'94 was great...the busts were mostly positive.

 

I did get traumatized in high school in the 2/24/98 storm....forecasted 12-18" right up to go time for interior hills (mostly west of 495) while coastal plain would be mainly rain. We started as rip-roaring S+ and about 27-28F....had 3 inches in the first 2 hours of anything steady....then the dreaded sleet pellets. Literally only 15 minutes or so of sleet pellets and we flipped to a marginal ZR and the temp was quickly spiking 31F, then 32F...finally we "settled" in around 35F and heavy rain. Must have gotten 2-3 inches of heavy rain. Storm tracked over the benchmark too....just a crushing bust for a snow lover in high school. It was almost like immediate "payback" for the huge positive bust we had just two months earlier on 12/23/97. The worst part was, during the news updates, they slahed the snow amounts as expected, but kept saying the flip was temporary and we'd flip back to snow in the interior and pick up another 4-6"....so in my mind I was thinking "ok, at least we'll salvage something decent"...but it never happened. We did get some light non-accumulating snow or flurries at the end....but not the landscape I was hoping for.

[CoastalWx]

Dec 1992 south of BOS and east of 95. One of the most crushing blows I've ever endured. Literally almost brought to tears. Blizzard warnings, 14-22" forecasts, parents getting me excited telling me how I've never seen this much before....only to get 6" and then drizzle and dryslot. Just devastated.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

I remember the 2/87 event I was just a snow crazy kid in 7th grade but I remember thinking the day and evening before it just seemed so cold and dry and even that evening there wasn't much high cloud cover....it just seemed to good to be true...back in central ct we had an inch of wind blown powder

PWM began reporting snow about 4 AM for that event, and I sat all morning in my eastside Augusta office glancing outside occasionally (okay, more than occasionally) all morning.  Did not see a flake until just before 12:30, then within 60 seconds visibility had dropped to about 1/8 mile.  Ended with 16", 2nd biggest snowfall in my 13 winters in Gardiner.  Only time I've noted such a glacially slow advance of precip from a system that eventually hammered us.  Normally such a delay means bust.

[ORH_wxman]

50 minutes ago, tamarack said:

PWM began reporting snow about 4 AM for that event, and I sat all morning in my eastside Augusta office glancing outside occasionally (okay, more than occasionally) all morning.  Did not see a flake until just before 12:30, then within 60 seconds visibility had dropped to about 1/8 mile.  Ended with 16", 2nd biggest snowfall in my 13 winters in Gardiner.  Only time I've noted such a glacially slow advance of precip from a system that eventually hammered us.  Normally such a delay means bust.

You sure you aren't thinking of another system? I was thinking this one would be too far SE for you...so I checked. Looks like 1-3" in AUG-LEW corridor.

 

edit: I'm referring to the 2/9/87 storm

[Hoth]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Dec 1992 south of BOS and east of 95. One of the most crushing blows I've ever endured. Literally almost brought to tears. Blizzard warnings, 14-22" forecasts, parents getting me excited telling me how I've never seen this much before....only to get 6" and then drizzle and dryslot. Just devastated.

Felt that way twice last March. Fortunately the long continuity of life's little misfortunes has sufficiently hardened me for such blows. The first was Ray's 30" monster, which subby holed me to 2.5" that promptly melted before the storm was even over. The second was was system that was forecast to give southern CT a beatdown, but wound up being a total bust and crushed LI 20 miles south of me with like 6" per hour snow. Think Ryan got some heat from folks after the latter one. That felt like Feb '10 all over again.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Felt that way twice last March. Fortunately the long continuity of life's little misfortunes has sufficiently hardened me for such blows. The first was Ray's 30" monster, which subby holed me to 2.5" that promptly melted before the storm was even over. The second was was system that was forecast to give southern CT a beatdown, but wound up being a total bust and crushed LI 20 miles south of me with like 6" per hour snow. Think Ryan got some heat from folks after the latter one. That felt like Feb '10 all over again.

I thought March and April left a bit on the table for a lot of areas. Don’t get me wrong, it was good for many (well just bad luck for you..) but that airmass in April is what we dream of and sort of got scraps. At least here. But March was hella fun. That first storm left was some of the strongest wind I’ve ever felt. 

[Hoth]

9 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought March and April left a bit on the table for a lot of areas. Don’t get me wrong, it was good for many (well just bad luck for you..) but that airmass in April is what we dream of and sort of got scraps. At least here. But March was hella fun. That first storm left was some of the strongest wind I’ve ever felt. 

Yeah, the first nor'easter, albeit only rain, was incredibly powerful. I can't complain about April. I pulled a 7" fluffer, which for these parts is pretty special.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Dec 1992 south of BOS and east of 95. One of the most crushing blows I've ever endured. Literally almost brought to tears. Blizzard warnings, 14-22" forecasts, parents getting me excited telling me how I've never seen this much before....only to get 6" and then drizzle and dryslot. Just devastated.

It’s how I felt Mar 01, and especially Jan 15. To. lesser extent, Jan 16 and Mar 17. Regardless, no matter my age....it’s always a huge let down. 

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You sure you aren't thinking of another system? I was thinking this one would be too far SE for you...so I checked. Looks like 1-3" in AUG-LEW corridor.

 

edit: I'm referring to the 2/9/87 storm

You are correct.  I saw 2/87 and my mind somehow arrived at Jan 2, 1987. 
Feb 87 was all whiffs - the 0.30" total precip at Gardiner was the least for any month of my 13 years there.  In fact, it just beats out April 1999 (0.31" at my current home) for the driest month I've recorded since moving to Maine in Jan 1973.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 hours ago, Hoth said:

Felt that way twice last March. Fortunately the long continuity of life's little misfortunes has sufficiently hardened me for such blows. The first was Ray's 30" monster, which subby holed me to 2.5" that promptly melted before the storm was even over. The second was was system that was forecast to give southern CT a beatdown, but wound up being a total bust and crushed LI 20 miles south of me with like 6" per hour snow. Think Ryan got some heat from folks after the latter one. That felt like Feb '10 all over again.

You were robbed in March, even I was but to lesser extent. We just haven’t had the complete all out 24hr crush job in a long time even though there have been ‘big time’ quick hitters. Something about the 24-36hr hits that make it stand out, for me. 

[CoastalWx]

51 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s how I felt Mar 01, and especially Jan 15. To. lesser extent, Jan 16 and Mar 17. Regardless, no matter my age....it’s always a huge let down. 

I think what made it so hard for me was coming off those awful winters from previous years. Finally I was going to see something my folks always talked about. No more hearing about how winters were so much snowier back then and all that crap. Finally was going to get a good storm. I had a msssive meltdown when they showed Worcester. I’ve had breakups less painful than that storm. 

[CoastalWx]

The thing is, I know it’s coming again. Ray, taking pics with his wife in 22” of paste, while they outline my body in white chalk. 

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You were robbed in March, even I was but to lesser extent. We just haven’t had the complete all out 24hr crush job in a long time even though there have been ‘big time’ quick hitters. Something about the 24-36hr hits that make it stand out, for me. 

This touches on an interesting - for me - aspect that I feel is endemic to the large r-scaled circulation in recent seasons. 

As I've opined plenty in the past ... there has been a 'gradient surplus' in the atmosphere.  What I mean by that is, the tropics to the polar regions are unusually, steeply sloped tall heights to the nadirs ...and this is true at planetary scales. 

The result of that is a faster than normal - hypothetically...I should say - wind velocity potential.  Systems tend to move through the flow faster than normal ..and or, shear more than normal, in a fast flow regime.  We know this facet to be true from Met basics... But, despite the climate rage about the Polar regions changing faster (which I am not disputing) the fact that everywhere else the heights on the planet are empirically ~ 20 DAM higher than they were a hundred years ago...  that's creating a faster jet everywhere - or tending to.   

Your noticing less 'slow movers' and more robust impacts that take place very quickly... seems to fit that assertion.  

So some speculation and taken for what it's worth - but I am basing that on observation and Met principles together.  Thing is, it's subtle... 

[ORH_wxman]

The early March storm this past year was kind of a solid bust in the interior...we were supposed to flip to snow and get decent amounts....but it never really was able to until the very end. I think I got an inch or two as it was winding down. Thankfully, the absolute paste nuke on Mar 7-8 and then the monster on Mar 13 made us forget very quickly.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The early March storm this past year was kind of a solid bust in the interior...we were supposed to flip to snow and get decent amounts....but it never really was able to until the very end. I think I got an inch or two as it was winding down. Thankfully, the absolute paste nuke on Mar 7-8 and then the monster on Mar 13 made us forget very quickly.

I still think about what that period would've been like with a more seasonable airmass in place. Some places would probably give Feb '15 a run for the money. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I still think about what that period would've been like with a more seasonable airmass in place. Some places would probably give Feb '15 a run for the money. 

When I couldnt sleep at night in the spring, I drew the same upper air maps but with colder 850s....pretended it was Feb, distributed the qpf as it was, used Kuchie snow algorithm’s obviously.... and I got 50-80” total for CT. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

When I couldnt sleep at night in the spring, I drew the same upper air maps but with colder 850s....pretended it was Feb, distributed the qpf as it was, used Kuchie snow algorithm’s obviously.... and I got 50-80” total for CT. 

Yeah, it hurts a little to think of all that squandered potential. But then that's what made Feb '15 so special. The atmosphere seemed to maximize every possible excuse to snow. It was just ridiculous. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

I still think about what that period would've been like with a more seasonable airmass in place. Some places would probably give Feb '15 a run for the money. 

I can't recall another month with 4 such powerful storms.  March 2001 had 3, plus 2 other significant but much weaker snows, and Dec 2003 had 4-5 strong storms but only 2 were at all wintry here (since "here" isn't Jay Peak.)  If we'd been nailed by all 4 I might still be shoveling.  The middle 2 dumped 36.4" while the 1st and 4th whiffed (as forecast) but their potential had me salivating until their course was depressingly clear.  Strange month, in that the 1st half had temps 5.3° AN and 3 feet of snow, while the 2nd half was 3° BN (and 2.3° colder than the 1st half) and had less than an inch.

I've lamented the frustration of Feb 15 here before - VD massacre, anyone? - but I still puzzle over a month with nearly 2 ft snowfall, zero RA/ZR/IP, perhaps 4 hours with temp above 30 (max 35), and with the exact same snow depth at beginning and end. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

The banding on both blizzards was absolutely stunning 2015 was more longer duration banding and 2005 was just pure blitzkrieg outside