Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

[Poimen]

FWIW:Roger Smith mentioned in the Mid-Atlantic forum that he is favoring a dominate storm track through the TN Valley and lower Mid-Atlantic. He’s another seasonal guy who has demonstrated some skill in the past. We’ll see.

[Cold Rain]

27 minutes ago, Poimen said:

FWIW:Roger Smith mentioned in the Mid-Atlantic forum that he is favoring a dominate storm track through the TN Valley and lower Mid-Atlantic. He’s another seasonal guy who has demonstrated some skill in the past. We’ll see.

I hope by TN Valley he means MS and AL and by lower mid-Atlantic he means SC and FL.

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Raysweather released their winter forecast for the mountains and immediate area today. Very sound reasoning and good read. 

 

http://booneweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0PmkqO3m-09XUduhc2kHBHJ8d6Jt5fMboahcNbDQfXnKiM4AZPuVMYzxQ

He states the higher chances of ice. I would assume he's thinking strong CADs. This goes along with other forecast that try to use the 1995/96 & 2010/11 analog years. 

Of course I'm probably reading into this too much; but I would definitely place this into another positive winter forecast. 

[NCSNOW]

17 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

He states the higher chances of ice. I would assume he's thinking strong CADs. This goes along with other forecast that try to use the 1995/96 & 2010/11 analog years. 

Of course I'm probably reading into this too much; but I would definitely place this into another positive winter forecast. 

Yea, i'd give more credence to the ice scenarios not so much because well experience more Miller B's verse Miller A storm tracks by a wider margin.  But mainly because the miller As even though more pronounceced/common verse usual climo, will be amped a lot more and screw up 850's while Cad  does it's thing at the surface.

[Buckethead]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Raysweather released their winter forecast for the mountains and immediate area today. Very sound reasoning and good read. 

 

http://booneweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0PmkqO3m-09XUduhc2kHBHJ8d6Jt5fMboahcNbDQfXnKiM4AZPuVMYzxQ

We got the same amount as Beech last year...didn't realize that.  That 100" forecast is a little eye opening though.  I might need another cord of firewood.

[wncsnow]

7 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Don’t forget Brad P! The G.O.A.T

I have had many discussions with Brad about his brand of "forecasting". He basically said he doesn't like to issue a forecast unless it's 2 days before an event. But is that even forecasting? 

[jburns]

12 hours ago, griteater said:

The NSF Model map

So about .5º above normal.  Not bad. There's really no difference between 33º and rain and 33.5º and rain. If anything that extra half degree makes it less frustrating.

[cbmclean]

15 hours ago, Poimen said:

It's Cohen's forecast via the National Science Foundation. He did say it was preliminary and would issue a final call in early November. 

Well, I hope that he is just as right about this, as he was about a couple of recent years which had high Siberian snow cover in October.

[griteater]

3 hours ago, jburns said:

So about .5º above normal.  Not bad. There's really no difference between 33º and rain and 33.5º and rain. If anything that extra half degree makes it less frustrating.

Yeah, he took a little grief about those temperature contours - https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1052989466330259457

[jburns]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Yeah, he took a little grief about those temperature contours - https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1052989466330259457

Good point.

[cbmclean]

You know what my first goal for this winter is: NOT to have one of the three months be historically warm.  We've had three straight years if that crap (December 15, Feb 17, Feb 18).

[FallsLake]

Here's an article posted on Wral:

https://www.wral.com/the-national-weather-service-is-predicting-a-mild-winter-for-most-of-the-u-s-/17931726/

They compare this upcoming year to 2014/15. February 2015 saved us to allow most to have a good/average winter.

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/database

 

But there is a wild card with the solar minimum. This year may be different, hopefully colder earlier in the season.   

 

[NC_hailstorm]

Solar wind today ranged from 271-290,that's the lowest levels I've seen in 9 years and matches close to 2009-10.

That is definitely solar minimum conditions if they persist,carry on.

[mclean02]

7 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Solar wind today ranged from 271-290,that's the lowest levels I've seen in 9 years and matches close to 2009-10.

That is definitely solar minimum conditions if they persist,carry on.

Winter of 2009 -2010 sign me up ! 

[BIG FROSTY]

30 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

Winter of 2009 -2010 sign me up ! 

Yes I'm all in 2009-2010 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Yes I'm all in 2009-2010 

I’m all in too.

Also 13/14 wasn’t too bad either. 

[Orangeburgwx]

1 hour ago, mclean02 said:

Winter of 2009 -2010 sign me up ! 

Deal me in, got that 8.5" storm and would love another

[cbmclean]

15 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Here's an article posted on Wral:

https://www.wral.com/the-national-weather-service-is-predicting-a-mild-winter-for-most-of-the-u-s-/17931726/

They compare this upcoming year to 2014/15. February 2015 saved us to allow most to have a good/average winter.

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/database

 

But there is a wild card with the solar minimum. This year may be different, hopefully colder earlier in the season.   

 

For some reason I don't really remember much about 2014 - 2015.  May have something to do with having a <1 year old baby at the time.  I do seem to remember a nice -EPO outbreak, maybe in February, which got me down to +3.9 F with a bit of snow cover, which was my PWS record until this past January's miracle on ice.

I don't remember anything about the "exceptionally cold" November, though.

[scwxguy]

Long time lurker here through a few years of following hurricanes and the winter tracking in this forum. In all this time I have to ask, why is it people are hoping for cold temperatures and snow? I moved to the south from the cold, snowy north in part to not have cold weather nor snow. Last year was my first year in Charleston and while the snow was an interesting experience I'd prefer not to see it again and stick to nice warm mild days. Of course cold spells will happen here, but I'm definitely in the camp of desiring warm and low humidity for winter. To me, after that winter "blast" of 3 days it was beautiful with 70s and 80s quite often in Jan and Feb. I loved every day of it. I seem to be a minority on this forum. 

Just curious about the obsession with cold and snow where it doesn't belong! 

[NCSNOW]

9 minutes ago, scwxguy said:

Long time lurker here through a few years of following hurricanes and the winter tracking in this forum. In all this time I have to ask, why is it people are hoping for cold temperatures and snow? I moved to the south from the cold, snowy north in part to not have cold weather nor snow. Last year was my first year in Charleston and while the snow was an interesting experience I'd prefer not to see it again and stick to nice warm mild days. Of course cold spells will happen here, but I'm definitely in the camp of desiring warm and low humidity for winter. To me, after that winter "blast" of 3 days it was beautiful with 70s and 80s in Jan and Feb. I loved every day of it. I seem to be a minority on this forum. 

Just curious about the obsession with cold and snow where it doesn't belong! 

Cause most of us who have lived down here all our lives, expierence the polar opposite of what you expierenced living up north. 6 months out of the year of 90 degree days and dewpoints in the 65 to 75 range.  It wears you down quite honestly. Nothing like a few months of clean cold artic , canadian air. Besides the landscape is so much more atttractive when its white as oppossed to brown ground and dead oak tree leaves that constantly litter everything up. And the icing on the cake is no skeeters,gnats,flies or cutting the grass.

 

 

[Cold Rain]

50 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Cause most of us who have lived down here all our lives, expierence the polar opposite of what you expierenced living up north. 6 months out of the year of 90 degree days and dewpoints in the 65 to 75 range.  It wears you down quite honestly. Nothing like a few months of clean cold artic , canadian air. Besides the landscape is so much more atttractive when its white as oppossed to brown ground and dead oak tree leaves that constantly litter everything up. And the icing on the cake is no skeeters,gnats,flies or cutting the grass.

 

 

That, and it’s interesting.  Sunny skies and warm temps for days on end is boring.

[Waiting on snow]

1 hour ago, scwxguy said:

Long time lurker here through a few years of following hurricanes and the winter tracking in this forum. In all this time I have to ask, why is it people are hoping for cold temperatures and snow? I moved to the south from the cold, snowy north in part to not have cold weather nor snow. Last year was my first year in Charleston and while the snow was an interesting experience I'd prefer not to see it again and stick to nice warm mild days. Of course cold spells will happen here, but I'm definitely in the camp of desiring warm and low humidity for winter. To me, after that winter "blast" of 3 days it was beautiful with 70s and 80s quite often in Jan and Feb. I loved every day of it. I seem to be a minority on this forum. 

Just curious about the obsession with cold and snow where it doesn't belong! 

Just as snow and cold irritate you up north, the heat and humidity do the same to us here. I'd bet it's just a matter of time before it gets to you too. 

Plus areas in Upstate SC and most of NC where most on this forum are usually get a couple shots a year at a good storm and the years we don't it's quite annoying to us. But you being in Charleston I can assure you last year wasn't the norm down there. You won't see many winters with snow there.

[scwxguy]

21 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

But you being in Charleston I can assure you last year wasn't the norm down there. You won't see many winters with snow there.

 

Makes me happy! Seeing snow and palm trees was just strange to me. I was caught off-guard with everything shutting down. I know it wasn't normal and it hadn't been seen in many years. Having moved here just in time for the first snow in years and then seeing posts on this thread showing coastal SC, GA and FL being the only below normal temps this winter on the forecast maps make me wonder if it is just following me and I need to move to Florida.

Now I know I need to be prepared to not be able to eat out or hit the grocery store if it happens again. I had a police car pull up to me at a stoplight when I was out driving in it (literally one of the only cars on the road in the middle of the afternoon!) and he asked me where I was going and if I was ok to drive. I replied to him I'm fine to drive I have 36 years of experience in the snow, the question is are you ok to drive? He said fair enough and be safe!

From talking with many of my neighbors I'm one of the odd ones. They've been waiting for cooler temperatures while I have felt an urgency to get out in the pool and beach as much as possible before the heat and humidity dissipates. I love the heat and humidity. When I lived up north I would sit outside and soak it in with a cold beer in the week or two we had of it. I just like hot weather and to me it never gets old, and neither do the pictures of sunshine and outdoor activities I share on Facebook with friends and family as they complain about yet another snowstorm 

Carry on!

[WarmNose]

6 hours ago, scwxguy said:

 

Makes me happy! Seeing snow and palm trees was just strange to me. I was caught off-guard with everything shutting down. I know it wasn't normal and it hadn't been seen in many years. Having moved here just in time for the first snow in years and then seeing posts on this thread showing coastal SC, GA and FL being the only below normal temps this winter on the forecast maps make me wonder if it is just following me and I need to move to Florida.

Now I know I need to be prepared to not be able to eat out or hit the grocery store if it happens again. I had a police car pull up to me at a stoplight when I was out driving in it (literally one of the only cars on the road in the middle of the afternoon!) and he asked me where I was going and if I was ok to drive. I replied to him I'm fine to drive I have 36 years of experience in the snow, the question is are you ok to drive? He said fair enough and be safe!

From talking with many of my neighbors I'm one of the odd ones. They've been waiting for cooler temperatures while I have felt an urgency to get out in the pool and beach as much as possible before the heat and humidity dissipates. I love the heat and humidity. When I lived up north I would sit outside and soak it in with a cold beer in the week or two we had of it. I just like hot weather and to me it never gets old, and neither do the pictures of sunshine and outdoor activities I share on Facebook with friends and family as they complain about yet another snowstorm 

Carry on!

Yeah we get heat and humidity most of the year. We look forward to our 3 week window every year to score “the big one”.. We are chasing our great white buffalo and we will get it one day. It may be when we are all grey and old, but we will get it one day.

[cbmclean]

6 hours ago, scwxguy said:

They've been waiting for cooler temperatures while I have felt an urgency to get out in the pool and beach as much as possible before the heat and humidity dissipates. I love the heat and humidity.

More proof of the variability of the human condition

For me personally, I can handle hot humid days pretty well, even working outside.  But I have to have a cool dry place to go to at the end of the day, especially to sleep at night.  Actually since AC is so widespread down here I bet our northern brethren may be tougher in that regard than us.  I know that when I go visit my wife's extended family in Western PA I am always terrified of the possibility of a warm spell, because no one has A/C, and sleeping upstairs can be suffocating.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

1 hour ago, WarmNose said:

Yeah we get heat and humidity most of the year. We look forward to our 3 week window every year to score “the big one”.. We are chasing our great white buffalo and we will get it one day. It may be when we are all grey and old, but we will get it one day.

I am already grey and old ...... but I have had the fortune of seeing several 12 inch+ snowstorms, thunder-snow, snow on Christmas Day and blizzard conditions with single-digit temps. Guess looking back at it, I have bagged my white buffalo. Maybe I will live long enough to see history repeat itself. I hope it happens this winter.

[FallsLake]

6 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I am already grey and old ...... but I have had the fortune of seeing several 12 inch+ snowstorms, thunder-snow, snow on Christmas Day and blizzard conditions with single-digit temps. Guess looking back at it, I have bagged my white buffalo. Maybe I will live long enough to see history repeat itself. I hope it happens this winter.

Same here man. I think we're lucky to live in the right place to be able to get big storms.

Because I like snowstorms, people always ask me why I don't move to Alaska or North Dakota. I tell them I'm not crazy. I would start to hate the cold and think snow was normal. I just want to live in a place where I can get snow/ice and when it happens I still think it's special.  

[Orangeburgwx]

3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Same here man. I think we're lucky to live in the right place to be able to get big storms.

Because I like snowstorms, people always ask me why I don't move to Alaska or North Dakota. I tell them I'm not crazy. I would start to hate the cold and think snow was normal. I just want to live in a place where I can get snow/ice and when it happens I still think it's special.  

You sound just like my grandpa...

[FallsLake]

47 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

You sound just like my grandpa...

He must be a wise man. 

[scwxguy]

16 hours ago, cbmclean said:

More proof of the variability of the human condition

For me personally, I can handle hot humid days pretty well, even working outside.  But I have to have a cool dry place to go to at the end of the day, especially to sleep at night.  Actually since AC is so widespread down here I bet our northern brethren may be tougher in that regard than us.  I know that when I go visit my wife's extended family in Western PA I am always terrified of the possibility of a warm spell, because no one has A/C, and sleeping upstairs can be suffocating.

Yes I too enjoy retreating to the AC in the evening. I wouldn't be happy without it. I remember moving down here and it seemed unbearable to work outside at all for the first few weeks. Now I cut the lawn at high noon in July without even thinking about it!

What has been most interesting is that setting the AC anywhere below 78 feels unbearably cold. Back up north even 74 was pushing it to be too warm. It's all humidity. 80 degree dewpoints vs 60s to near 70. Even 70 degree dewpoints feel "refreshing" after a period of 80 dewpoints.