frd Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 3 hours ago, griteater said: We speculate on here about winter, and some write winter outlooks, etc., but in the real world, are there companies that actually make use of winter outlooks? I would assume that they are used for energy market trading...and I would assume that, say, outdoor clothing companies (e.g. North Face) could make use of winter outlooks in preparing for supply & demand. Anyway, I'm just speculating. I was wondering if anyone could share info beyond speculation on this topic. Thanks. Long range weather projects is a huge market for many public and private companies. I read a report on the Wall Street Journal it is a growing field. Short term but, longterm outlooks guide decisions about inventory, commodities, the futures markets, what to makwe on the assembly lines and beyond that retailers, and what to focus on and how much, beyond that even more such as chemicals and other compunds. Knowing ahead in weather is a big market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 just announced that the euro will run 4 cycles/day starting in oct. winter will be fun, and cliff diving will be even more prevalent now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 2 hours ago, DopplerWx said: just announced that the euro will run 4 cycles/day starting in oct. winter will be fun, and cliff diving will be even more prevalent now! Alright!!!! This is going to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 2 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Alright!!!! This is going to be good. I am moving now to corner the Ibuprofen market in the mod forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 On 9/27/2018 at 1:11 PM, DopplerWx said: just announced that the euro will run 4 cycles/day starting in oct. winter will be fun, and cliff diving will be even more prevalent now! Info from StormVista on the Euro: 6z and 18z will run out to hr90 on the operational run, and out to hr144 on the ensemble run. Sounds like they are waiting on a few things from ECMWF, but expect to begin having those runs 'soon.' On the ENSO front, the latest weekly SST value for Nino 3.4 is up to +0.6. Subsurface warmth continues to look healthy and more westerly winds are occurring across the central and east Pacific. Weak El Nino looks like a solid call now IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 On 9/27/2018 at 5:36 PM, jburns said: I am moving now to corner the Ibuprofen market in the mod forum. Hell with that weak crap.......get the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, Lookout said: Hell with that weak crap.......get the good stuff. What flavor or shine then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Here’s something to look contemplate until our first snow event is 14 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 From @true_weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 I liked the GEFS run this morning. If you look at the heights they start off with ridging in the east and slowly change to show a trough in the east. This is what we want for the upcoming winter. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018100506&fh=18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 2 hours ago, griteater said: From @true_weather... Holy ****.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Wonder what Dec and Jan look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Here's the Euro Seasonal (Dec-Feb) Last month, the Euro trended the El Nino a little weaker....for Oct, it trended it a little stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 ^ looks a lot like weatherbell forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: Holy ****.... As awesome as all that blue looks, it only corresponds to -0.6 to -0.8 colder than average in North and South Carolina. (I believe those are degrees Celsius rather than Fahrenheit...but still.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, calculus1 said: As awesome as all that blue looks, it only corresponds to -0.6 to -0.8 colder than average in North and South Carolina. (I believe those are degrees Celsius rather than Fahrenheit...but still.) All it takes is .1 to make or break an event... Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 We can drool and fantasize all we want about those glamour model pics posted above. But as of right now we are married to the 700 lb gray headed woman who cant cook,clean and has no personality what so ever. The Southeast Ridge. Edit; she hates football, golf ,hunting,fishing as well. And its highly likely she graduated from UNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: All it takes is .1 to make or break an event... Just saying There are so many things that can make or break an event. 2-m temperature is just one of them. However, monthly average temperature does not necessarily have any effect on whether or not someone gets snow. While highly unlikely, we could finish 0.5 degrees cooler than normal for the entire month by simply being 0.5 degree above normal on 27 days in February and 27.5 degrees below normal on the one other day. I think we'd all just give up at that point, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, calculus1 said: There are so many things that can make or break an event. 2-m temperature is just one of them. However, monthly average temperature does not necessarily have any effect on whether or not someone gets snow. While highly unlikely, we could finish 0.5 degrees cooler than normal for the entire month by simply being 0.5 degree above normal on 27 days in February and 27.5 degrees below normal on the one other day. I think we'd all just give up at that point, though! No lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: We can drool and fantasize all we want about those glamour model pics posted above. But as of right now we are married to the 700 lb gray headed woman who cant cook,clean and has no personality what so ever. The Southeast Ridge. Edit; she hates football, golf ,hunting,fishing as well. And its highly likely she graduated from UNC. Or Clemson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 On 9/27/2018 at 9:35 AM, griteater said: We speculate on here about winter, and some write winter outlooks, etc., but in the real world, are there companies that actually make use of winter outlooks? I would assume that they are used for energy market trading...and I would assume that, say, outdoor clothing companies (e.g. North Face) could make use of winter outlooks in preparing for supply & demand. Anyway, I'm just speculating. I was wondering if anyone could share info beyond speculation on this topic. Thanks. I worked for a large apparel company in IT. Planning looked 13 weeks out into the future driven by market trends, placed orders, and anticipated orders based on input from relations with the retail stores. I wasn't at the level of knowing what was discussed, only in supporting the IT infrastructure. I'm sure that weather would affect the retail stores order planning, which would then affect our planning thru a change in the placed and anticipated orders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 12 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Wonder what Dec and Jan look like? Toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Starting to see some blue anomolies creep in just outside of hr200..that makes me sad. I would love to keep this heat for another 30-40 days. The golfball doesn’t fly in the cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Starting to see some blue anomolies creep in just outside of hr200..that makes me sad. I would love to keep this heat for another 30-40 days. The golfball doesn’t fly in the cold! Bit early compared to the last few years ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 8 hours ago, WarmNose said: Starting to see some blue anomolies creep in just outside of hr200..that makes me sad. I would love to keep this heat for another 30-40 days. The golfball doesn’t fly in the cold! If I had the power to ban people...:D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 JAMSTEC came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 I heard Joe Bastardi say there is a direct correlation between fall Gulf hurricanes and cold/wet winters for the southeast. Is that true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 What's the latest on the QBO? Are we expecting a -QBO winter and if so in the -10 to -15 range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, Poimen said: What's the latest on the QBO? Are we expecting a -QBO winter and if so in the -10 to -15 range? For Sept. It was -9.88 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 3 hours ago, Poimen said: What's the latest on the QBO? Are we expecting a -QBO winter and if so in the -10 to -15 range? 3 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: For Sept. It was -9.88 I think At 30mb, it should be up to around zero for October (i.e. transitioning from negative to positive), and continue climbing positive thru winter. At 50mb, it should remain negative for at least the first half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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