Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

[TullyHeel]

  On 9/4/2018 at 1:33 AM, jburns said:

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This is obviously not Captain Obvious. 

 

This is Captain Obvious. 

[TullyHeel]

  On 9/5/2018 at 7:33 PM, griteater said:

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

 

Meanwhile, the Sept run of the Euro Seasonal has this as the 500mb mean for Dec-Feb:

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[Cold Rain]

  On 9/5/2018 at 7:33 PM, griteater said:

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

 

Meanwhile, the Sept run of the Euro Seasonal has this as the 500mb mean for Dec-Feb:

 

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When will the Griteater preliminary winter forecast be released?

[griteater]

  On 9/5/2018 at 7:43 PM, Cold Rain said:

When will the Griteater preliminary winter forecast be released?

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Ha, no preliminary, we hunker down and give it one shot in early Nov

[Poimen]

  On 9/5/2018 at 7:33 PM, griteater said:

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

 

Meanwhile, the Sept run of the Euro Seasonal has this as the 500mb mean for Dec-Feb:

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Nice!

[Orangeburgwx]

  On 9/5/2018 at 7:33 PM, griteater said:

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

 

Meanwhile, the Sept run of the Euro Seasonal has this as the 500mb mean for Dec-Feb:

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How much below normal temp is that darkest blue?

[griteater]

  On 9/5/2018 at 9:48 PM, Orangeburgwx said:

How much below normal temp is that darkest blue?

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So the blue on that map is for below normal heights at 500mb.  The max anomaly over the SE is over -20m....but yeah, it would equate to moderately below normal temperatures.

[Cold Rain]

  On 9/5/2018 at 10:29 PM, griteater said:

So the blue on that map is for below normal heights at 500mb.  The max anomaly over the SE is over -20m....but yeah, it would equate to moderately below normal temperatures.

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That map also makes me think that there is a decent chance of a southern storm track.

[griteater]

  On 9/5/2018 at 11:30 PM, Cold Rain said:

That map also makes me think that there is a decent chance of a southern storm track.

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For sure, but there’s this one tiny obstacle, ‘verification’

[jburns]

  On 9/5/2018 at 7:40 PM, Brick Tamland said:

This is obviously not Captain Obvious. 

 

This is Captain Obvious. 

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Obviously.

[griteater]

Some thoughts on where I think we are headed with the QBO this fall/winter - https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1037734570198753281

 

[FallsLake]

  On 9/6/2018 at 4:32 PM, griteater said:

Some thoughts on where I think we are headed with the QBO this fall/winter - https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1037734570198753281

 

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Thanks Grit! Of course I always look up the analog years, and there's only a couple of those winters that had a decent winter storm. But (I know) other factors need to be weighed for an overall winter comparison.  

[Poimen]

So one good thing from Florence, I suppose, is it will lock in a wet soil over the southeast/mid-atlantic to help keep the trough placement in the east for the winter??

[DaveNay]

So, uhhh......what's winter really like in the Chapel Hill area?

We just bought land in Chapel Hill (out along Dairyland Rd) and we will be relocating there next summer. After the last 10 years or so of the arctic tundra of northern Illinois, we anticipate that winter down there is going to be a six month long autumn equivalent.

 

[griteater]

Sept JMA release...3 month mean for Dec/Jan/Feb - https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

Image on far right is 500mb, middle is 850mb temperatures, far left is Sea Level Pressure

On the 500mb image on the far right, it has some ideal anomaly centers...max above normal heights in Davis Strait and along Canada west coast.  Max below normal heights in north-central Pacific and off the Northeast U.S. coast.  Only thing missing to make it nearly perfect is below normal heights off California to Texas (southern stream).

JMA has a low end weak El Nino on the SST chart

 

[CaryWx]

  On 9/11/2018 at 3:33 AM, DaveNay said:

So, uhhh......what's winter really like in the Chapel Hill area?

We just bought land in Chapel Hill (out along Dairyland Rd) and we will be relocating there next summer. After the last 10 years or so of the arctic tundra of northern Illinois, we anticipate that winter down there is going to be a six month long autumn equivalent.

 

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Dave,

We get about 9 weeks of "seasonal" winter in the Triangle. 

~11 weeks of spring

~11 weeks of fall

...and about 21 weeks of summer.  [Some of it really hot and humid]

=52

[BIG FROSTY]

I seen where CFS is forecasting low amounts of snow in October in Siberia!  Hope it is wrong!!! That's where we always look for a sign for potential cold in the east in the winter. (when Siberia is above normal snow in October). 

[mackerel_sky]

  On 9/19/2018 at 12:13 AM, BIG FROSTY said:

I seen where CFS is forecasting low amounts of snow in October in Siberia!  Hope it is wrong!!! That's where we always look for a sign for potential cold in the east in the winter. (when Siberia is above normal snow in October). 

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Even when there has been record Siberian snowcover, we crap the bed! I’ll tell you how I’ll know how winters going, by how early fantasy snow storms show up on the GFS! Start that in Nov/Dec, it’ll be great! Don’t see one till February, we in trouble!

[CaryWx]

  On 9/19/2018 at 12:13 AM, BIG FROSTY said:

I seen where CFS is forecasting low amounts of snow in October in Siberia!  Hope it is wrong!!! That's where we always look for a sign for potential cold in the east in the winter. (when Siberia is above normal snow in October). 

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Frosty el nino (modoki style) calls for our cold to be more continental based.  Not Siberian or Polar.  Given that, northern plains and Canada cold is plenty.  We need blocking (-nao) though.

[BIG FROSTY]

  On 9/19/2018 at 2:45 AM, CaryWx said:

Frosty el nino (modoki style) calls for our cold to be more continental based.  Not Siberian or Polar.  Given that, northern plains and Canada cold is plenty.  We need blocking (-nao) though.

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I agree it doesn't have to be brutal cold to get snow, We do need a -NAO. 

[BIG FROSTY]

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 14m14 minutes ago

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Latest CFSV2 Winter run looks like JMA and Euro ( cant show Euro) and supports http://weatherbell.com  idea issued on Aug 7

 

[Orangeburgwx]

  On 9/23/2018 at 11:26 PM, BIG FROSTY said:

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 14m14 minutes ago

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Latest CFSV2 Winter run looks like JMA and Euro ( cant show Euro) and supports http://weatherbell.com  idea issued on Aug 7

 

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Hope that varifies

[FallsLake]

Here's the 12z GFS predicated snow cover anomaly for the Northern Hemisphere on October 12th.  Looks like we can't rely on the Asia snow cover build up theory. Maybe the only good thing it looks like North America is doing OK. But only OK.

 

 

[Cold Rain]

  On 9/26/2018 at 5:56 PM, FallsLake said:

Here's the 12z GFS predicated snow cover anomaly for the Northern Hemisphere on October 12th.  Looks like we can't rely on the Asia snow cover build up theory. Maybe the only good thing it looks like North America is doing OK. But only OK.

 

 

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I think it's supposed to be the rate of increase through the month, particularly toward the end of the month.  Starting the month in the hole is probably a good thing, if you believe in the thing.  I am very skeptical that it matters.  Either way, I do hope we see a good and deep snow pack build-up eventually.  It's quite a useful thing to have.

[FallsLake]

  On 9/26/2018 at 8:01 PM, Cold Rain said:

I think it's supposed to be the rate of increase through the month, particularly toward the end of the month.  Starting the month in the hole is probably a good thing, if you believe in the thing.  I am very skeptical that it matters.  Either way, I do hope we see a good and deep snow pack build-up eventually.  It's quite a useful thing to have.

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I'm not sure as well. From what I've read (for the season as a whole) the snow build up is very slow this year. Friv (Global Warmer) is even positing in the Sea Ice thread; which isn't good when you see him posting...

[WeatherHawk]

Old man said the leaves are thick...so according to him it's gonna be a hard winter

[Isopycnic]

  On 7/26/2018 at 10:51 AM, Isopycnic said:

Drier, warmer. Snow in the Jan 10-15 timeframe. 

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I like this prediction. I’d also add a ice storm in the Dec 3-9 timeframe. 

[FallsLake]

  On 9/27/2018 at 10:47 AM, Isopycnic said:

I like this prediction. I’d also add a ice storm in the Dec 3-9 timeframe. 

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Like 2002. 

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/database

 

[griteater]

We speculate on here about winter, and some write winter outlooks, etc., but in the real world, are there companies that actually make use of winter outlooks?  I would assume that they are used for energy market trading...and I would assume that, say, outdoor clothing companies (e.g. North Face) could make use of winter outlooks in preparing for supply & demand.  Anyway, I'm just speculating.  I was wondering if anyone could share info beyond speculation on this topic.  Thanks.

[FallsLake]

  On 9/27/2018 at 1:35 PM, griteater said:

We speculate on here about winter, and some write winter outlooks, etc., but in the real world, are there companies that actually make use of winter outlooks?  I would assume that they are used for energy market trading...and I would assume that, say, outdoor clothing companies (e.g. North Face) could make use of winter outlooks in preparing for supply & demand.  Anyway, I'm just speculating.  I was wondering if anyone could share info beyond speculation on this topic.  Thanks.

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You have the normal folks like JB, DT-WxRisk, Accuweather, Farmers Almanac, CPC, etc.. But really it's all speculation. I suppose an el nino (west based) would favor eastern troughs (southern storm) tracks (cooler not cold in the SE), ocean temps would favor high/low dominance (like Alaskan low), and then you get into the theories like Asian October snow buildup, solar minimum (the year before or after??), soil moisture, etc.

I take everything with a grain of salt.