Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

[griteater]

I agree CR, and I would personally give warm neutral a higher chance than moderate nino. The upper atmospheric portion of ENSO (VP Anomalies) has been leaning more toward El Niño so that is good to see.

[SN_Lover]

8 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

Apparently we are already beginning to see an enhanced STJ

 

Just took a look at the climate models and this means nothing if the NAO is positive. NAO is negative in Dec then turns positive in Jan. See more app cutters this year. All premature at this point. But our best hope will be in December it it beginning to look like. 

[Waiting on snow]

6 hours ago, SN_Lover said:

Just took a look at the climate models and this means nothing if the NAO is positive. NAO is negative in Dec then turns positive in Jan. See more app cutters this year. All premature at this point. But our best hope will be in December it it beginning to look like. 

I agree. We'll probably have to rely on the EPO and PNA to save us. The NAO is a lost cause anymore it seems in winter. The water around Greenland is cold, which doesn't usually indicate a -NAO. Check out this guy from the UK. He usually does pretty good. But he does say that this year may be different due to the AMO appearing to flip.

 

[Orangeburgwx]

5 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

I agree. We'll probably have to rely on the EPO and PNA to save us. The NAO is a lost cause anymore it seems in winter. The water around Greenland is cold, which doesn't usually indicate a -NAO. Check out this guy from the UK. He usually does pretty good. But he does say that this year may be different due to the AMO appearing to flip.

 

Yeah, if everything else lines up we can count the NAO as a wash... We wouldn't need it, but it would be nice to have that safety net

[FallsLake]

I stole this link off the MA folks. WXRISK (DT) preliminary winter discussion:

 

[Poimen]

18 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I stole this link off the MA folks. WXRISK (DT) preliminary winter discussion:

 

Thanks for posting. That's a great breakdown of the factors that could shape our winter. Just reading between the lines, it would appear as if DT is somewhat hopeful for a cold/snowy winter on the east coast. 

[Waiting on snow]

Since it's all just speculation at this point anything can happen. A safe bet for the SE anyway is above average temps overall for the whole winter. We're very good a finding a way to screw it up and be warm. My guess is the NAO will be the fly in the ointment. 

That said we can definitely reach average to above average snowfall with El-Nino simply by having more precip so it's easier to time it right.

Having said that, I hope I'm wrong and the NAO is negative on more than just my emotions and this Modoki El-Nino doesn't turn to El-Crappo! 

[FallsLake]

Here's the Farmers Almanac Winter forecast:

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather-outlook/2019-winter-forecast

It has normal temps and wet conditions for the SE. It's got cold to very cold temps to our west and north. To try and put a positive spin on this forecast, I would guess that CADs would be more prevalent with the cold to the north and a wet pattern. There has also been some analog years thrown around (from others) that have some big ice storms. But, that's just me talking...   

[Orangeburgwx]

2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Here's the Farmers Almanac Winter forecast:

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather-outlook/2019-winter-forecast

It has normal temps and wet conditions for the SE. It's got cold to very cold temps to our west and north. To try and put a positive spin on this forecast, I would guess that CADs would be more prevalent with the cold to the north and a wet pattern. There has also been some analog years thrown around (from others) that have some big ice storms. But, that's just me talking...   

Ice storms suck, I would rather have NOTHING than go through a monster like in '04 (the only significant ice storm in my lifetime IMBY... No power for over a week)

[Orangeburgwx]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

 

CPC calling for a -NAO forming... Are we dreaming? (both the GFS and EURO are also hinting at it)

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

 

CPC calling for a -NAO forming... Are we dreaming? (both the GFS and EURO are also hinting at it)

AO also goes strongly negative, but the PNA goes to neutral at best.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 Also not sure how much these indices affect us this time of year. I don't start tracking until mid November.   

[Cold Rain]

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

 

CPC calling for a -NAO forming... Are we dreaming? (both the GFS and EURO are also hinting at it)

Went ahead and ran the experimental extrapolation for the winter:

[Orangeburgwx]

33 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Went ahead and ran the experimental extrapolation for the winter:

Well now... That bites the bark doesn't it

[FallsLake]

^^But you know it would be our luck to get a predominantly negative NAO now, just to have it flip back positive the first part of December. 

[Cold Rain]

13 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

^^But you know it would be our luck to get a predominantly negative NAO now, just to have it flip back positive the first part of December. 

Oh yeah...that's what happens.

[SN_Lover]

Cold December warm January. Rince and repeat. 

[griteater]

The ENSO waters are murky.  I mean, it is go time for an El Nino to develop and today's daily Nino 3.4 reading on SV came in at +0.09.  Are we going to get real El Nino atmospheric forcing this winter or are we going to be stuck in neutral-land??

[WeatherHawk]

Saw three solid black wolly worms...hard winter is a coming'

[WeatherHawk]

Muscadines loaded, apple trees loaded, and we scored 30 pounds of blueberries on three bushes...c'mon old man winter :)

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

8 hours ago, WeatherHawk said:

Muscadines loaded, apple trees loaded, and we scored 30 pounds of blueberries on three bushes...c'mon old man winter

My father had the best peach and pear season that he has had in the past 20 years. I can confirm the bumper fruit crop. Got a good feeling about this winter, if we can get a little El-Nino action started.

[jburns]

 

It gets earlier each year but it looks like its time for a repost of my winter southern folklore.

Top Six Southern Winter Folklore Sayings

1. If you count the morning fogs in August you will know how many August mornings were foggy.

2. A heavy crop of acorns will lead to fatter than average squirrels next spring.

3. If it thunders in winter, 10 days later it will have happened 10 days ago.

4. If you study the bands of the wooly worm you will know how many are brown and how many are black.

5. Snow that lays on the ground for more than three days is dirty.

6. A ring around the moon means your Lasik surgeon screwed up.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

11 minutes ago, jburns said:

 

It gets earlier each year but it looks like its time for a repost of my winter southern folklore.

Top Six Southern Winter Folklore Sayings

1. If you count the morning fogs in August you will know how many August mornings were foggy.

2. A heavy crop of acorns will lead to fatter than average squirrels next spring.

3. If it thunders in winter, 10 days later it will have happened 10 days ago.

4. If you study the bands of the wooly worm you will know how many are brown and how many are black.

5. Snow that lays on the ground for more than three days is dirty.

6. A ring around the moon means your Lasik surgeon screwed up.

Hard to believe it's been a year! You might also want to add:

7. Temps in the SE of 22 or below are "too cold to snow," despite most of the remaining northern hemisphere having no problem seeing snow with much lower temps.

8. If we have a warm November and the pattern flips in December we'll have a different pattern than we did before.

[stadiumwave]

On 8/30/2018 at 5:07 PM, griteater said:

The ENSO waters are murky.  I mean, it is go time for an El Nino to develop and today's daily Nino 3.4 reading on SV came in at +0.09.  Are we going to get real El Nino atmospheric forcing this winter or are we going to be stuck in neutral-land??

Atmospheric forcing is already Nino

[WeatherHawk]

On 9/1/2018 at 8:43 PM, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Hard to believe it's been a year! You might also want to add:

7. Temps in the SE of 22 or below are "too cold to snow," despite most of the remaining northern hemisphere having no problem seeing snow with much lower temps.

8. If we have a warm November and the pattern flips in December we'll have a different pattern than we did before.

You guys are comedians   BTW 2 wooly worms solid black up here...and the woodpeckers pecking south so you know it's a hard winter when them be pecking on the south logs

[Orangeburgwx]

7 hours ago, WeatherHawk said:

You guys are comedians   BTW 2 wooly worms solid black up here...and the woodpeckers pecking south so you know it's a hard winter when them be pecking on the south logs

No lie, and down my way Geese are flocking south and have been since mid August

[SnowGoose69]

On 8/30/2018 at 10:13 AM, FallsLake said:

^^But you know it would be our luck to get a predominantly negative NAO now, just to have it flip back positive the first part of December. 

The June through September NAO  correlation to winter has generally been poor.  Up until about 10 years ago the October NAO correlated inversely to the winter fairly well.  If it was positive the tendency was for a negative NAO in winter and vice versa but the last decade or so that has failed more often than not.  That said I still generally do not like a strongly -NAO in October.  The tendency overall in El Niño years is for October to be somewhat cool in the eastern US and for November to then flip mild.  October 97 and 09 fooled everyone pretty good.  What happens after 12/10 is usually the decision point.  The better El Niño years the back half of December usually shows good indications.  The bad years it can torch hard the entire December  

[FallsLake]

17 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The June through September NAO  correlation to winter has generally been poor.  Up until about 10 years ago the October NAO correlated inversely to the winter fairly well.  If it was positive the tendency was for a negative NAO in winter and vice versa but the last decade or so that has failed more often than not.  That said I still generally do not like a strongly -NAO in October.  The tendency overall in El Niño years is for October to be somewhat cool in the eastern US and for November to then flip mild.  October 97 and 09 fooled everyone pretty good.  What happens after 12/10 is usually the decision point.  The better El Niño years the back half of December usually shows good indications.  The bad years it can torch hard the entire December  

I've been half joking with folks about not wanting a big storm in the later part of October (woolly worm and squirrel stuff..). But if you think about it, big storms in October would signify troughiness which would be aided by a -NAO. So for my superstitions, I'll pull for the +NAO up until mid/late November. Heck, nothing to lose...  

[Brick Tamland]

Winter is going to do what it's going to do here. We could have the nest pattern for snow and not get a flake. We could have the worst pattern and get a foot or more from one storm. 

[jburns]

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

Winter is going to do what it's going to do here. We could have the nest pattern for snow and not get a flake. We could have the worst pattern and get a foot or more from one storm. 

[griteater]

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

 

Meanwhile, the Sept run of the Euro Seasonal has this as the 500mb mean for Dec-Feb: