Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

[LithiaWx]

The bastardi kiss of death.  Fml

[Iceagewhereartthou]

If that were to actually verify I think I would be in winter heaven. No way I get -5 to -7 average from Dec to Feb, but man that would be EPIC!

[LithiaWx]

I’d like a wall to Wall cold ass winter for once.  It would mean little motorcycle riding time but hey it would be pretty epic. 

[FallsLake]

JBs winter forecast:

https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2018-19-august-outlook 

[FallsLake]

JB states list some analogs years. You can go here to compare:

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/database

He mentions 2002-2003 (but does not list it as analog) which was the year of ice (at least for me...).    

[Orangeburgwx]

Holy crap February if the last few runs of the monthlies varify...

[BK Rambler]

Since I'm in the bullseye of BigJoe's negative temp anomaly I thought I'd take a look at some historical data for Atlanta.  If this were to verify, a -6 DJF winter would tie for the 3rd coldest on record ('63, '64).  Only '77 & '78 colder.  We'll see.  BigJoe always seems to have a cold bias in the East to his forecasts.

[Orangeburgwx]

11 minutes ago, BK Rambler said:

Since I'm in the bullseye of BigJoe's negative temp anomaly I thought I'd take a look at some historical data for Atlanta.  If this were to verify, a -6 DJF winter would tie for the 3rd coldest on record ('63, '64).  Only '77 & '78 colder.  We'll see.  BigJoe always seems to have a cold bias in the East to his forecasts.

However, with the way everything is lining up he very well could be right.

[BIG FROSTY]

From: JB

JAMSTEC: SINTEX-F predicts that a moderate-to-strong El Niño event may start in summer and reach its peak in winter.This El Niño is more or less of Modoki-type and we need to be careful of its impact that may be different from that of the canonical El Niño

 

I am of the belief its a weak to at most moderate event. Point is they see the Modoki type, and their forecast is much like our analogs

[BIG FROSTY]

We have a model flip! I mean a night and day flip!!

JAMSTEC August run for Winter... FROM  to  

 

 

[FallsLake]

20 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

We have a model flip! I mean a night and day flip!!

JAMSTEC August run for Winter... FROM  to  

 

 

Time to head for Flagstaff. 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

On 8/16/2018 at 8:36 PM, FallsLake said:

Time to head for Flagstaff. 

You jest. But according to Wikipedia, Flagstaff averages 100 inches of snowfall a friggin' year. (of which I had no idea it would be this much)

Imagine how much it would be if above average?

Yea. It's time to look for job openings in the area...

 

[tarheelwx]

The models always lose the pattern in the 4-5 month range   

Tw

[jburns]

1 hour ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

You jest. But according to Wikipedia, Flagstaff averages 100 inches of snowfall a friggin' year. (of which I had no idea it would be this much)

Imagine how much it would be if above average?

Yea. It's time to look for job openings in the area...

 

I don't think he was jesting. Flagstaff is at 6900 feet and is well known for its winters.

[FallsLake]

^^^Yeah, it's a running joke in my family to say it's time to make a run to Flagstaff. I've actually never been (father has), but from what I've read it's a winter paradise for the SW. 

 

In other things, it's looking like a nice weekend coming up. <Can we call this the first shot of fall>

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM Sunday... The upper level trough will pivot through NC Wednesday into Thursday while the surface cold front pushes through central NC late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Depending on the timing of the fropa, some showers/storms could linger, primarily across the east, on Wednesday. Temperatures will be determined by the front progression as well, but for now expect highs in the mid 80s north to around 90 degrees south, while lows in the mid 60s NW to around 70 degrees SE are expected. High pressure at the surface will build through the Great Lakes and extend southward into NC on Thursday and Friday, possibly continuing to wedge southwestward into the region into Saturday. The aforementioned high will push the piedmont trough offshore, where it could remain through the end of the work week. Meanwhile aloft, high pressure is expected to build eastward, though there is an indication of a low over the Southeast that could result in some rain, primarily across south-central NC, late in the week. Otherwise, expect a primarily dry forecast through Friday night, though the best chances for showers/storms will be limited to the aft/eve across the south. With the relatively cool high pressure in place, expect much more comfortable temperatures Thursday through Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows generally in the low to mid 60s (the far north and west could see some 50s on Thursday night). &&

[jburns]

9 hours ago, FallsLake said:

^^^Yeah, it's a running joke in my family to say it's time to make a run to Flagstaff. I've actually never been (father has), but from what I've read it's a winter paradise for the SW. 

 

In other things, it's looking like a nice weekend coming up. <Can we call this the first shot of fall>

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM Sunday... The upper level trough will pivot through NC Wednesday into Thursday while the surface cold front pushes through central NC late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Depending on the timing of the fropa, some showers/storms could linger, primarily across the east, on Wednesday. Temperatures will be determined by the front progression as well, but for now expect highs in the mid 80s north to around 90 degrees south, while lows in the mid 60s NW to around 70 degrees SE are expected. High pressure at the surface will build through the Great Lakes and extend southward into NC on Thursday and Friday, possibly continuing to wedge southwestward into the region into Saturday. The aforementioned high will push the piedmont trough offshore, where it could remain through the end of the work week. Meanwhile aloft, high pressure is expected to build eastward, though there is an indication of a low over the Southeast that could result in some rain, primarily across south-central NC, late in the week. Otherwise, expect a primarily dry forecast through Friday night, though the best chances for showers/storms will be limited to the aft/eve across the south. With the relatively cool high pressure in place, expect much more comfortable temperatures Thursday through Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows generally in the low to mid 60s (the far north and west could see some 50s on Thursday night). &&

I've been and would love to go back and spend some time there. Another nice thing besides the winter is that in the summer months the air is usually so dry that nighttime temps often fall into the 40s. It is also the only city in AZ that has never recorded a 100º high temp.

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, jburns said:

I've been and would love to go back and spend some time there. Another nice thing besides the winter is that in the summer months the air is usually so dry that nighttime temps often fall into the 40s. It is also the only city in AZ that has never recorded a 100º high temp.

If we could only get cool nights in the summer, I could then handle the hot days. But our time is coming. October weather is as good as it gets in our region.  **18z GFS still showing dew points in the upper 40s and low 50s this weekend across a good portion of the upper SE. 

[Isopycnic]

[Orangeburgwx]

1 hour ago, Isopycnic said:

I so call BS on that map.... Strong La Nina maybe but not a weak Nino

[FallsLake]

2 hours ago, Isopycnic said:

It looks like the JAMSTEC posted above. 

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I so call BS on that map.... Strong La Nina maybe but not a weak Nino

Agreed, El Nino tends to promote wet/cool in the SE; whereas La Nina focuses more storms west of the apps. Still looking like El Nino for this winter (70%).

https://www.climate.gov/enso

 

[Cold Rain]

Mild snow ftw!

[Poimen]

2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Mild snow ftw!

Is that better than cold rain? ;)

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

34 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Is that better than cold rain?

Oh heck yeah, I would rather have snow TV at 35 degrees than rain at 33 anytime. However, I don't think that's what the map is implying.... That being said, it doesn't reflect the current projected winter pattern in any way. That looks more like a global-warming version of a cold neutral.

[Cold Rain]

3 hours ago, Poimen said:

Is that better than cold rain?

Everything is better than cold rain!!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

7 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Agreed, El Nino tends to promote wet/cool in the SE; whereas La Nina focuses more storms west of the apps. Still looking like El Nino for this winter (70%).

https://www.climate.gov/enso

 

I don't know what to root for anymore. Last year, everyone said the purported La Nina was bad news for winter lovers, but it was a bonanza winter of memorable cold and snow for the Triad.

[FallsLake]

3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I don't know what to root for anymore. Last year, everyone said the purported La Nina was bad news for winter lovers, but it was a bonanza winter of memorable cold and snow for the Triad.

La Nina can be good if the cold can work into the se; as it did last year.  El nino should keep the storm track south, but we'll have to worry about sufficient cold air to our North. Strong el ninos are bad for everybody. We need to hope the week forecast holds. 

[griteater]

22 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

La Nina can be good if the cold can work into the se; as it did last year.  El nino should keep the storm track south, but we'll have to worry about sufficient cold air to our North. Strong el ninos are bad for everybody. We need to hope the week forecast holds. 

I’ll bet something large we don’t see a strong El Niño 

[FallsLake]

8 hours ago, griteater said:

I’ll bet something large we don’t see a strong El Niño 

I'm definitely not an expert, but from what I've read (including this sites ESNO thread) weak is favored. Then we start getting into west vs east..... But, hopefully we can get some blocking to tap into some cold air along with the favored southern storm track.   

[Cold Rain]

4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I'm definitely not an expert, but from what I've read (including this sites ESNO thread) weak is favored. Then we start getting into west vs east..... But, hopefully we can get some blocking to tap into some cold air along with the favored southern storm track.   

At this point, I'd give place the odds AOA 75% that we see something in the following range:  warm neutral to moderate Nino, either west or central based.  My guess is weak central.  I would take strong out of the mix and take Nina or Nina-ish out of the mix.  I would also give lower chances of warm east vs. warm central/west.  We'll see.