NC_hailstorm Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Couple more from the Ukie.Euro is pretty close to these but I'm not sure If I can put their maps on here. Here's Heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 14 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Couple more from the Ukie.Euro is pretty close to these but I'm not sure If I can put their maps on here. Here's Heights. Thanks for posting these. I'd like to see the lower heights moved a bit to the south. But otherwise, pretty good. Do they show month by month temp anoms or just the d-f period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Check out Don Sutherland's winter forecast: Highlights include: 2002-03; 2009-10 analogs and 30-40" snowfall for RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 2M temps on the Ukie,look pretty cold today.I haven't found forecasts for separate months they forecast 3 months together as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said: 2M temps on the Ukie,look pretty cold today.I haven't found forecasts for separate months they forecast 3 months together as far as I can tell. Jesh that is colder than last time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 CFS has been sorta bad lately but it is showing a crash in zonal winds around Mid/late December at 10Hpa(technical SSW).This will be a bottom-up event if it happens,warming from 100mb to 50mb going up to 10mb reversing it for a while.Usually leads to more blocking. GEFS gets it down to 20 m/s at the end of it's run also at the beginning of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 2m2 minutes ago Our updated December outlook favors warmer and wetter than normal conditions across much of the country. Best chances for a cooler than normal December are across the Central Great Basin and Northern New England. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Timing is everything. You only need a transient cold shot for 2 out of 31 days to make it a memorable December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GL072832 The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropics and has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate. It has recently been shown that the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the amplitude of the boreal winter MJO such that MJO amplitudes are larger on average during the easterly phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A major possible mechanism is the decrease in static stability in the lowermost stratosphere under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO‐induced meridional circulation. Here evidence is presented that tropical upwelling changes related to the 11 year solar cycle also modulate the boreal winter MJO. Based on 37.3 years of MJO amplitude data, the largest amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, occur during the QBOE phase under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the smallest amplitudes and strongest static stabilities occur during the QBOW phase under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Conversely, when the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in occurrence rates becomes statistically insignificant. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which especially large MJO amplitudes are expected and an initial test of these results will be possible. I'd say that research came out quite accurate.Solar wind/EEP levels mostly in my opinion drive it NOT sun spots or the 10.7cm flux.Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Just looking at some verification scores tonight,the FV3 is just as good as the Ukie at day 6.If it can be as good as it,it can be very useful in medium range.Euro is still king across the board but the FV3 is far better than the Canadian and a tick better than the GFS at day 10 but that's long range anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 3 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: Just looking at some verification scores tonight,the FV3 is just as good as the Ukie at day 6.If it can be as good as it,it can be very useful in medium range.Euro is still king across the board but the FV3 is far better than the Canadian and a tick better than the GFS at day 10 but that's long range anyway. Hopefully, this will be useful in a few weeks, as we have some events to track!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Some very light snow around 288 on 12z FV3 today. well, maybe not as light around Columbia to Florence to Wilmington. This storm would probably put them at their seasonal average or just above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 SSW doesn't look like it will lead to a split, or at least not yet. So that's out. LR Euro sucks. We're hanging onto post 240-hr GFS. Oof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 2 hours ago, WidreMann said: SSW doesn't look like it will lead to a split, or at least not yet. So that's out. LR Euro sucks. We're hanging onto post 240-hr GFS. Oof. Nope, I’m hugging the GFSv3! Pipe busting cold on the 0z! Happy Christmas to all of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 5 hours ago, WidreMann said: SSW doesn't look like it will lead to a split, or at least not yet. So that's out. LR Euro sucks. We're hanging onto post 240-hr GFS. Oof. Yup. Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yup. Winter. Kind of early in the day for this negativity!? The days are getting noticeably longer! Ground temps and sun angle really going to hurt us going forward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Cold is coming 1st week of 2019, no denying. Should be alot of fun n games Jan,Feb,March on @off. Enjoy and Everyone have a Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 My opinion the MJO is stalled again is we had an extra coronal hole/flareup Dec.19-22nd that was completely missed by the space forecasts.It was small but it still produced over 600 km/s a few days.Then you add in the 7-10 day lag with every big flareup and that's why it's still stuck,sun is still too unpredictable to pick up every large flare though. These larger flareups tend to stall/weaken or push the tropical forcing back in to the Maritime continent(phase 4,5.6)just from my observations.The larger,stronger coronal hole that rotates around every 20 days has done this every time the last 4 cycles with a 7-10 day lag after each one.Example is the Dec 7-14th rotation/flare up then we had the Dec 15-21st stall. December overall hasn't been as good as October/November concerning solar wind,EEP.November had 20 days below 400 km/s but December only 14 days.Stronger MJO's are far more likely with a good Solar/QBO signal(solar min/-QBO)this was researched 2 years ago and results verify. What you need is a good 10- 14 day stretch of very low solar wind/EEP to pull this MJO around and keep it out of Maritime Continent forcing.stalling but the coronal hole is already rotated back starting Dec 28th. Just my opinion and observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Better hope the MJO can get to phase 7 or close to 8 by Jan 8th-9th because that's when the 10 day lag/weaken'pull will start and all the models are picking this up already at some degree.Coronal hole rotated around Dec.29th so that gives you 10 days or so to get the MJO to a better phase,where it stalls it what you'll get for at least 10 days.matches up perfectly with the coronal hole rotation. The loop on some of the models represents the attempt to pull the MJO to Maritime continent forcing(phase 4,5,6),the Euro is weaker with the MJO but tries to push it back into phase 4(Maritime continent forcing)which is very possible at the long range. If it doesn't get to phase 7 or 8 you could virtually lose the whole month waiting on another 10 day lag so the race is on .Fascinating to watch and observe once you figure out what to look for. Just my opinion again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 hailstorm - do you know of the physical mechanism whereby enhanced solar wind (from rotating coronal holes) stalls the MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 38 minutes ago, griteater said: hailstorm - do you know of the physical mechanism whereby enhanced solar wind (from rotating coronal holes) stalls the MJO? I think because of the fact a coronal burst that heightens the solar wind disrupts the atmosphere near the poles more due to the magnetic field being weaker there. Keep in mind, just one difference somewhere has a big impact everywhere (like ripples spreading on a pond). The MJO prefers a smooth, calm atmosphere, so with the atmosphere disrupted, it is like the MJO hits a "rock", and goes nowhere. I know that you asked hailstorm, but that is the best explanation I can give. .Hopefully, he corrects me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/1/2019 at 12:05 PM, griteater said: hailstorm - do you know of the physical mechanism whereby enhanced solar wind (from rotating coronal holes) stalls the MJO? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612000302 A clear solar signature in MJO spectral properties is indeed found and shown to be both statistically significant and robust. The overall correlation with solar activity is found to be stronger in the Indian Ocean. Still observing myself and learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Not winter related but it intensifies tropical storms too. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682618305765?via%3Dihub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 So around Jan 10th, 11th the coronal hole is going to stall the MJO again? Is that the thinking/consensus? If so is the stall what causes the MJO to go inside COD? or is it other factors that cause MJO to go in COD? Enjoy reading ya'lls thoughts on this, easy to understand layman's terms . Weber knows this stuff upside down, but I'm afraid to ask him. His answers require higher intelligence than yours truly possess for discernment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 12:22 PM, NCSNOW said: So around Jan 10th, 11th the coronal hole is going to stall the MJO again? Is that the thinking/consensus? If so is the stall what causes the MJO to go inside COD? or is it other factors that cause MJO to go in COD? Enjoy reading ya'lls thoughts on this, easy to understand layman's terms . Weber knows this stuff upside down, but I'm afraid to ask him. His answers require higher intelligence than yours truly possess for discernment. By my observations it should start Jan 8th or 9th,10 days from the Dec 29th-Jan.7th rotation.Usually it takes 7-10 days for this to filter through the atmosphere so there is a 7-10 day lag .January 17-18th or so we should see the MJO emerge again after the 7-10 lag after effect. Good news it this latest rotation doesn't seem to be a strong as the Dec 2nd-12th one and the Dec 19-22 surprise flareup. There were 6 days above 500 km/s that rotation with 1 day above 600 km/s,so far into this rotation only 2 days above 500 km/s with two more days to go.This gives me more confidence the MJO should stay a bit stronger a bit longer maybe emerging at a weak phase 6 or 7 but just a guess. Next rotation is Jan.24th but the sun looks pretty quiet Jan 8th-to Jan 23rd which should help keep the tropical forcing out of the Maritime(phase 4,5,6) in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Coronal hole rotating in today (Jan.24th-Feb.3rd) meaning the MJO will stall,weaken,or get pulled to the Maritime around Feb.2nd-Feb 7th given a 9-14 day lag on this.It should reemerge around Feb.11th-Feb 16th given another 9-14 day lag after the rotation ends(Feb.2nd). MJO should progress and tick stronger the next 10 days solar wind was pretty low Jan.8th-Jan 23rd,should get to p7 maybe p8. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Thanks NC_hailstorm. Your last call/timing verified right on the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 This winter is going to be above average temps once again for the majority of the forum. February looks to be warm for at least the first week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This winter is going to be above average temps once again for the majority of the forum. February looks to be warm for at least the first week. We’ve had colds temperatures but can’t seem to get the moisture here at the same time. Not yet anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.