Jonathan Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 So, as the average daily temperature for our region begins to fall after today (7/23) let's talk winter in July! What are the big indices looking like? What ENSO state are we entering into? Solar looking good which would make the QBO good for us? Any early animal coloration or behavior to look for? Surely this winter can't be worse than the last two...could it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 From CPC: Discussion - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html Map - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 32 minutes ago, FallsLake said: From CPC: Discussion - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html Map - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5 Good post,that and the solar minimum could be fun. How's your summer so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Going to be a big winter. Weak west-based or Modoki El Nino, lots of blocking, active STJ. Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Going to be a big winter. Weak west-based or Modoki El Nino, lots of blocking, active STJ. Boom! Thanks JB! May Charleston, SC get more snow than you again, for the 2nd year in a row! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 47 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Thanks JB! May Charleston, SC get more snow than you again, for the 2nd year in a row! North, south, east, or west of me is where you want to be! Where's Packbacker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Already excited for cool fall mornings and football, and prepared for 90 degrees in late October! Let's get it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 8 hours ago, Jonathan said: So, as the average daily temperature for our region begins to fall after today (7/23) let's talk winter in July! What are the big indices looking like? What ENSO state are we entering into? Solar looking good which would make the QBO good for us? Any early animal coloration or behavior to look for? Surely this winter can't be worse than the last two...could it? I would have responded but the days have gotten shorter and I didn't have the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 7 hours ago, frazdaddy said: Good post,that and the solar minimum could be fun. How's your summer so far? Summers been good. Just got back from vacation at the outer banks. Loved the weather, most days in the low 80s and plenty of sunshine. But, still can't wait for summer to end (..being the cold weather loving guy I am). Maybe in 5 months from now we'll be tracking a Christmas snow storm. Hope your summer is good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 20 hours ago, Cold Rain said: North, south, east, or west of me is where you want to be! Where's Packbacker? So I'm in the jackpot zone? you never want to be in the jackpot area this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 I’ll take it CFS really trending colder for front half of winter. Got to like the ENSO look heading into late summer. Not too mention pretty decent ice up north and a VERY slow melt season in Greenland. that coupled with the solar min (a very significant minimum actually) gives way to some pretty epic recipes for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 Drier, warmer. Snow in the Jan 10-15 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 '73', or '09... (Or bigger possible with this set up, this is the jackpot we never have hit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 4:55 PM, fountainguy97 said: I’ll take it CFS really trending colder for front half of winter. Got to like the ENSO look heading into late summer. Not too mention pretty decent ice up north and a VERY slow melt season in Greenland. that coupled with the solar min (a very significant minimum actually) gives way to some pretty epic recipes for winter. However now it is trending back warmer/slightly above average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 9 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: However now it is trending back warmer/slightly above average Yep! I don’t usually follow climate models just for that reason but they are comforting when supporting good winters. All in in all this really is a winter where all the factors could line up very nicely for winter. Solar minimum (probably a bigger deal than most make it out to be it is THE SUN after all lol) weak nino promotes active STJ -qbo helps promote blocking and sustained cold All of the very early indicators that we can actually guess at this far out are not looking bad at all. In fact, this could be a fun one I just don’t like hyping myself up this early on haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 Now that I'm living in Duke Forest, I have no idea what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: Now that I'm living in Duke Forest, I have no idea what to expect. Your in west Durham? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Queencitywx said: Now that I'm living in Duke Forest, I have no idea what to expect. Mini Ice Age? You brought this with you correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 13 hours ago, Queencitywx said: Now that I'm living in Duke Forest, I have no idea what to expect. Welcome to the neighborhood sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 On 7/30/2018 at 6:09 PM, FallsLake said: Your in west Durham? Hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 On 7/30/2018 at 4:57 PM, Queencitywx said: Now that I'm living in Duke Forest, I have no idea what to expect. Trolls, hobbits, hippies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: Hi. Hawaii? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Hawaii? I wish. West durham is a LONG way from Hawaii... But is slightly closer to HI than waycross, ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Isopycnic said: I wish. West durham is a LONG way from Hawaii... But is slightly closer to HI than waycross, ga. There’s a lot less lava in West Durham also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 9 hours ago, Isopycnic said: I wish. West durham is a LONG way from Hawaii... But is slightly closer to HI than waycross, ga. Lol, I gotcha.. Durham does have cheaper housing, and as CR stated less lava. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Lol, I gotcha.. Durham does have cheaper housing, and as CR stated less lava. ...not enough hula skirts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Man those weeklies look absolutely hellish right now, I wish FOR ONCE we could catch a damn break and kick our good friends SER and WAA out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 The sun will set for the first time in over two months in Barrow Alaska late tonight/tomorrow: http://aa.usno.navy.mil/cgi-bin/aa_rstablew.pl?ID=AA&year=2018&task=0&state=AK&place=barrow Fall is coming. I know, no SE cool down for another 5-6 weeks, but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 On 7/31/2018 at 6:56 AM, frazdaddy said: Welcome to the neighborhood sir! Thanks man! I’ve been on a roll lately, hope I brought the mojo. I couldn’t convince the girlfriend to live in Hillsborough or Roxboro. On 7/30/2018 at 6:09 PM, FallsLake said: Your in west Durham? Yes sir, about two miles from the OrCo line, just off 751. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 Been poking around the Maps and it looks like I’ll do okay for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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