Indystorm Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 I've read that this low pressure is becoming vertically stacked. In the past such lows have usually not been too prolific of a svr wx maker. So we shall see what happens today and if this holds true or not. 83/71 here now and partly sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 2 hours ago, yoda said: Death toll is now at 13... with children among the dead. Four people still missing https://www.yahoo.com/gma/8-dead-missouri-duck-boat-accident-025903630--abc-news-topstories.html Up to 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Not much change in the 1630 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN TENNESSEE...WESTERN/NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN/EASTERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions into the Mid-South today into early tonight, with damaging gusts, large hail and tornadoes possible. ...Mid MS/OH/TN Valleys... Morning water vapor loop shows a significant upper low tracking southeastward across southern WI. A strong mid level jet lies to the south of the low, extending from the northern Plains into MO. As this upper wind max overspreads the warm sector over parts of the Mid MS, OH, and TN Valleys, the risk of rather widespread severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into tonight. A very moist and unstable air mass has developed across this region with pockets of MUCAPE in the 5000-6000 J/kg range. Steep low and mid level lapse rates combined with strong effective shear values will result in a conditional risk of severe storms throughout the region. The primary forecast uncertainty is the timing and location of initiation. 12z model guidance shows wide diversity in where/when the most intense convective clusters will occur later today. Due to this uncertainty, few changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. Discrete supercell development is possible along/ahead of the approaching cold front due to shear vectors orthogonal to the front and favorable shear magnitudes. Any storms that remain discrete will pose a risk of very large hail and a tornado or two. It appears likely that multiple clusters of storms will congeal into fast-moving bowing structures posing a risk of rather widespread damaging winds. This threat will likely spread as far east as eastern KY/TN overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Up to 17. Horrible avoidable tragedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Severe warning for Brown County and Seymour IN area now. Cells are beginning to pop. Would imagine if this is going to happen it will get started shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 First cells starting to fire off in Northwest Indiana as well. I would imagine that there is probably only a two or three hour window of play room for things to go super-cellular on the MI/IN/OH end of the setup. That said, things are progressing nicely for such a window to occur. CAPE and shear is surging in nicely and quite tightly behind the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Supercell beginnings... starting to rotate Edit: The LLJ is kind of hampering the rotation right now, but needs to be watched closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 40 minutes ago, Stebo said: Horrible avoidable tragedy. I hate to say it, but inexperience on the Captain's end is ultimately, what sank this vessel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Radars starting to really pop with many discrete cells near the svr warned cell on radarscope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Up to 17. How does that even happen? Once I realize the boat is going down I'm jumping out and swimming, water temps are really warm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Tornado watch up for SE IN/SW OH and KY until 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Horrible avoidable tragedy. I have been on that cruise, albeit 20 years or so ago. IIRC you are only on the water for 30 minutes or so. If they don't have someone monitoring the weather and warning them off before they hit the water that is gross negligence.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Louisville metro could be affected with severe/tor possibilities shortly with tor warned cell by Corydon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Louisville KY 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018 The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Harrison County in south central Indiana... * Until 245 PM EDT. * At 200 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Corydon, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Elizabeth, New Middletown, Bridgeport, Fishtown, Sugar Grove, Seven Springs, Dogwood and Lottick Corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 The base velocities look concerning on the southern indiana border TW'd cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 New Tornado Watch issued for Northern Indiana and Southwest Lower Michigan until 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 TOG near Corydon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vman722 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 I'd be shocked if there isn't a Tor on the ground with the supercell heading towards southern Louisville. Debris ball becoming evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 TOG now confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Hopefully the worst can go just south of metro LOU, but it will be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 yikes looking bad..lots of debris detected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Louisville KY 216 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018 INC061-201845- /O.COR.KLMK.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180720T1845Z/ Harrison IN- 216 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTY... At 216 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near New Middletown, moving east at 30 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Elizabeth, New Middletown, Bridgeport, Fishtown, Sugar Grove, Seven Springs and Lottick Corner. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the path of dangerous weather. && LAT...LON 3818 8590 3816 8591 3809 8591 3806 8592 3813 8613 3819 8611 3819 8595 TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 281DEG 24KT 3813 8607 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL...2.75IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: yikes looking bad..lots of debris detected Big debris ball. TDS isn't too tall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: yikes looking bad..lots of debris detected Coming very close to New Middletown, tiny town just 5-10mi west of the OH river. If it makes it across the river, uh oh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 STW issued for LOU... warning indicates TOR possible and tennis ball sized hail with winds to 70mph stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 New tornado warning for supercell located near Madison, IN. Thing has a nasty look as well. Every storm in the OH River valley from Cincy to Louisville has a hooking feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Updated SWS at 2:26PM only has confirmed tornado wording... no PDS wording or large/extremely dangerous wording for the Harrison county storm like the 2:16 SWS had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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