Rtd208 Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Models appear to be in decent agreement with the exception of the normal differences at this range on some type of coastal/tropical system affecting us from late Saturday possibly through early Monday depending on timing. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 I could see Orange County doing pretty well with the front end thump. Definitely a Catskills type system. The coast will be lucky to see 5 flakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 18, 2018 Author Share Posted July 18, 2018 I think Winter Storm Watches will be issued by Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Euro is incredibly wet over the next 10 days from this storm and a wet pattern unable to post-but for those with access check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I think Winter Storm Watches will be issued by Friday morning. ‘I’m desperate to know where the rain/snow line will set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Euro is incredibly wet over the next 10 days from this storm and a wet pattern unable to post-but for those with access check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 46 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Given the convective patterns, local spots could easily pick up 2-3X those amounts, at the same time some areas will see much less. Luck of the draw I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Given the convective patterns, local spots could easily pick up 2-3X those amounts, at the same time some areas will see much less. Luck of the draw I guess. Bone dry 1//2 half of July, record rains second half... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 we need the rain but not that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 The heaviest axis of rain appears to be more towards Eastern LI and Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The heaviest axis of rain appears to be more towards Eastern LI and Southern New England. The New NAM is way west...brings the center up west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 In addition to the heavy rain threat, we will have to monitor how deep this storm gets. NAM has an unstable lower atmosphere which would allow the LLJ to mix down to the surface for strong winds and potential spin ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Some differing solutions now, Euro is further east, NAM/CMC further west, Gfs over the area. I guess it'll depend on how deep the closed low is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Some differing solutions now, Euro is further east, NAM/CMC further west, Gfs over the area. I guess it'll depend on how deep the closed low is. UKMET also east like the EURO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Even with the east track...rain amounts remain high in the longer term...just delayed with missing that initial slug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 1 minute ago, sb7916 said: The timing for this unsettled pattern couldn't be any worse. I have an outdoor free movie night at Forest Park Bandshell in Woodhaven NY at 8:00pm on Monday July 23 and really hope we get a break by then in this Florida like airmass Big Grease fan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 1 minute ago, sb7916 said: The timing for this unsettled pattern couldn't be any worse. I have an outdoor free movie night at Forest Park Bandshell in Woodhaven NY at 8:00pm on Monday July 23 and really hope we get a break by then in this Florida like airmass They will reschedule like they usually do. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 19, 2018 Author Share Posted July 19, 2018 The models have been waffling over the last couple of days on where the heaviest rain will occur, pretty typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Nam up the Delmarva with the low. Furthest west run I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 19, 2018 Author Share Posted July 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Nam up the Delmarva with the low. Furthest west run I've seen NAM maybe to far west?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 19, 2018 Author Share Posted July 19, 2018 I feel like I am tracking a winter storm the way the models have been shift around the heaviest rainfall, 18z GFS is back east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: I feel like I am tracking a winter storm the way the models have been shift around the heaviest rainfall, 18z GFS is back east again. Good, keep it east. I want an offshore flow. There is nothing worse at the beach during the peak of beach season then a blasting onshore flow and resulting sand storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 444 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-202045- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk- Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 444 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. An area of low pressure will impact the region late Saturday into Sunday. A period of moderate to heavy rain is becoming more likely. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are forecast with locally higher amounts possible in any thunderstorms that develop. This could cause flash flooding, especially if the heavier rain falls over the New York City metro area. Additionally, some of these thunderstorms may be strong to possibly severe, with an isolated tornado not out of the question. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 NAM is still petty far west. It's also slower salvaging Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 I'm bullish on the tornado threat. I think we'll get to see some interesting spin-ups. Probably not very strong ones but just the idea of some landing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 20, 2018 Author Share Posted July 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: NAM is still petty far west. It's also slower salvaging Saturday Yeah it seems like this will really get going Saturday evening into Sunday. Upton even mentioned tornadoes are possible in their afternoon discussion, here is a snippet below. As for severe threat, 0-6 km bulk shear of greater than 40 kt, 700-500 mb lapse rates of 5.5-6 deg C, 850 mb winds of 40-50 kt, and K index of greater than 35 point to some threat of severe weather. However, lifted index and MUCAPE are not that impressive. Of note are some high helicity values as well as EHI values approaching 1, which indicate tornadoes are possible. SPC has not placed any part of our area in a severe risk yet, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible given the above conditions, some with gusty winds approaching 40 mph or a weak tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 20, 2018 Author Share Posted July 20, 2018 00z GFS further west then 18z and very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Looks more and more likely this will head either over or to the west of us giving us stronger winds, more rains, and potential weak spin-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 20, 2018 Author Share Posted July 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 The 6SD LLJ really means business for the high wind gust, brief spin up, and flash flood potential in the strongest convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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