Marine Weather

[Nitecapt]

I have been a fishing boat captain for over 30 years doing most of my boating in Long Island Sound. Over time I have noticed certain patterns in weather that I cannot explain nor has one or two meteorological experts  been able to explain either. Thus I have to questions that perhaps the membership can explain for me.

First of all, I notice that about 80% or more of storm frontal passages seem to hit this area late afternoon or early evening. Generally, watching the radar the cool fronts come from the northwest and come into the NY metro areolate in the day. Rarely if ever I can remember this occurring in the morning or mid-day.It seems like the timing of the frontal passages always occur late in the day. It would seem to me that when a frontal boundary is approaching, there should be no reason why that particular timing should occur. Any suggestions?

Item 2. When I am fishing, optimal conditions are having wind and tide coming from the same direction.Thus, for me, a west, southwest or northwest wind and outgoing tide can produce optimal results. Sometimes the NWS will predict a wind change for a particular day and while they might target that wind change for morning or afternoon, I find that it generally coincides with the change in tide and I cannot explain why. 

And while on the topic of NWS, their marine forecasts in this area are horrible resulting very frequently in winds coming from the direct opposite of the forecasts. I can understand a variation of the predicted wind direction so if they say southeast it could be east or northeast. But sometimes they will call for a wind direction and in fact the actual direction is 180 degrees from the forecast direction. It doesn't happen often but often enough from to notice.

So I have joined this forum to learn. I love observing weather, I love being out on the water and feeling the cold downdraft of an approaching T-Storm and marveling at the power of wind and waves. It's exciting (unless of course the lightning hits the boat)

Can anyone here impart some knowledge?

Thanks in advance

Ray

 

 

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

22 hours ago, Nitecapt said:

I have been a fishing boat captain for over 30 years doing most of my boating in Long Island Sound. Over time I have noticed certain patterns in weather that I cannot explain nor has one or two meteorological experts  been able to explain either. Thus I have to questions that perhaps the membership can explain for me.

First of all, I notice that about 80% or more of storm frontal passages seem to hit this area late afternoon or early evening. Generally, watching the radar the cool fronts come from the northwest and come into the NY metro areolate in the day. Rarely if ever I can remember this occurring in the morning or mid-day.It seems like the timing of the frontal passages always occur late in the day. It would seem to me that when a frontal boundary is approaching, there should be no reason why that particular timing should occur. Any suggestions?

Item 2. When I am fishing, optimal conditions are having wind and tide coming from the same direction.Thus, for me, a west, southwest or northwest wind and outgoing tide can produce optimal results. Sometimes the NWS will predict a wind change for a particular day and while they might target that wind change for morning or afternoon, I find that it generally coincides with the change in tide and I cannot explain why. 

And while on the topic of NWS, their marine forecasts in this area are horrible resulting very frequently in winds coming from the direct opposite of the forecasts. I can understand a variation of the predicted wind direction so if they say southeast it could be east or northeast. But sometimes they will call for a wind direction and in fact the actual direction is 180 degrees from the forecast direction. It doesn't happen often but often enough from to notice.

So I have joined this forum to learn. I love observing weather, I love being out on the water and feeling the cold downdraft of an approaching T-Storm and marveling at the power of wind and waves. It's exciting (unless of course the lightning hits the boat)

Can anyone here impart some knowledge?

Thanks in advance

Ray

 

 

 

 

First thing just seems to be the way things happen around the area I have noticed many of times we tend to get the times you had mentioned as our frontal passage more often then not. It more so probably has to do with how the frontal system progresses not very often we get the low pressure running through the east more so into Canada and then we get the trailing front which slows the bermuda high is fairly intense this time of year and fights back slowing systems as they come east and diverting them into canada. So maybe that is why?

Second, winds do some funky stuff over water especially near coastal areas unless the meteorologists at NWS are familiar with how things go just off the coast more often then not they go off past data and computer models which arent always the best a predicting winds again especially along the coast. So it seems fitting that with the change in low and high tides you get different winds to occur. You can also see changes in winds around dawn and dusk and if they maybe coincide with tides then maybe that change is enhanced? Not too familiar myself with coastal forecasting.

 

Hope that helps?

[Nitecapt]

These I suppose are possibilities, but I'm not sure they explain why and even if the front times itself for the evenings. As I said, I have actually consulted with meteorologists who seemed unable to explain this phenomenon. It would seem that this pattern should have been analyzed by meteorologists in the past and that they should come up with an explanation.

[billgwx]

You came to the right place, where occasionally you may run into an NWS forecaster who handles Long Island Sound

In the warm season, topography and daytime heating and cooling over land tend to influence frontal timing. For us that often means thunderstorms develop somewhere in the higher elevations of Pennsylvania during late morning or early afternoon, move with steering currents in the atmosphere, and arrive here by evening. If a line of storms is strong and well organized it can get here more quickly (mid to late afternoon). A cold front would have to be right on top of us to get timing much different than that.

We don't take diurnal tidal fluctuations into account when forecasting wind, so if they're in sync that's coincidental. We probably should, because I've heard stories of opposing wind and tidal currents producing standing 10-foot waves in and near The Race. Until about 15 years ago, when Connecticut State University installed the Central Sound buoy, we had no idea seas were getting as high as they were, especially when the wind fetch went from one end of the Sound to the other as on a WSW or ENE wind.

I also often wonder how far ocean swells make it into the Sound and how high they still are after shoaling in western Block Island Sound? We didn't really have good guidance on that until a couple of years ago when we started using the Nearshore Wave Prediction System--now we can see that some swell does make it in at least as far as the Connecticut River, sometimes even farther west along the Connecticut coast. That could lead to higher seas than forecast by wind alone. Does that fit with your experience?

Sea breezes, back door cold fronts, and outflow from distant thunderstorms can play havoc with wind forecast, and we've noticed that in summertime winds on the Sound can often start off easterly in the morning when all else indicates they should be southerly. What specific situations do you notice our wind forecast is off?

Bill

[Nitecapt]

Bill,

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. What I have noticed about Long Island Sound is that whatever the forecast, there is a light northerly breeze in the morning, eventually replaced by a south or southwesterly flow by afternoon. That explanation is easy. On hot days as the land heats and the hot air rises, an onshore breeze develops on both the north and south shores as the cooler ocean air rushes onshore to replace the rising air over land. As the day progresses, that southerly breeze increases in speed eventually overrunning the island and delivering the south southwest breeze by afternoon which then progresses past the island as it heads toward Connecticut which is also subject to the cooler air over the water. We like wind and tide when it's in the same direction. It makes anchoring and fishing easier. So I might have an east wind and think, "when the tide starts coming in I will have wind with tide making conditions better" then the tide changes to incoming and the wind may shift to another direction further frustrating my fishing efforts. It's OK if I am recreating but when I have a charter, those passengers expect fish and it can be very hard to produce in those conditions. I can always understand an error on the part of NWS with light wind conditions as there are many variables at hand, but 10-15 from one direction when 10-15 from the opposite direction is actually occurring can be very frustrating.

Thanks again for your reply

Ray